daily mirror — 11/07/2026

data/divergence-timeseries.csv

@@ -76,3 +76,8 @@ poll_date,institute,register_tse,candidate,poll_pct,polymarket_pct,polymarket_da
 2026-07-08,Ideia/Canal Meio,BR-05628/2026,Caiado,4,1.35,2026-07-08,-2.65
 2026-07-08,Ideia/Canal Meio,BR-05628/2026,Zema,2.5,0.95,2026-07-08,-1.55
 2026-07-08,Ideia/Canal Meio,BR-05628/2026,Renan,2,9.65,2026-07-08,7.65
+2026-07-08,Gerp,BR-03067/2026,Lula,36,61.5,2026-07-08,25.5
+2026-07-08,Gerp,BR-03067/2026,Flávio,36,22.45,2026-07-08,-13.55
+2026-07-08,Gerp,BR-03067/2026,Caiado,4,1.35,2026-07-08,-2.65
+2026-07-08,Gerp,BR-03067/2026,Renan,2,9.65,2026-07-08,7.65
+2026-07-08,Gerp,BR-03067/2026,Zema,2,0.95,2026-07-08,-1.05

data/poll-divergence.csv

@@ -1,78 +1,83 @@
 poll_id,register_tse,institute,poll_date,field_midpoint,days_to_first_round,scenario,candidate,poll_pct,polymarket_pct,polymarket_date,naive_gap_pp,gap_type
-BR-03627/2026,BR036272026,Real Time Big Data,2026-05-05,2026-05-03,154,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,40,37.5,2026-04-30,-2.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-03627/2026,BR036272026,Real Time Big Data,2026-05-05,2026-05-03,154,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,34,43,2026-04-30,9,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-03627/2026,BR036272026,Real Time Big Data,2026-05-05,2026-05-03,154,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,5,1.65,2026-04-30,-3.35,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-03627/2026,BR036272026,Real Time Big Data,2026-05-05,2026-05-03,154,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,4,4.7,2026-04-30,0.7,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-03627/2026,BR036272026,Real Time Big Data,2026-05-05,2026-05-03,154,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,3,5.65,2026-04-30,2.65,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Paraná Pesquisas-2026-05-07,BR043152026,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-05-07,2026-05-09,148,Cenário SP (1º turno),Flávio,39.3,43,2026-04-30,3.7,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Paraná Pesquisas-2026-05-07,BR043152026,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-05-07,2026-05-09,148,Cenário SP (1º turno),Lula,36,37.5,2026-04-30,1.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Paraná Pesquisas-2026-05-08,BR043152026,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-05-08,2026-05-09,148,Cenário MT (1º turno),Flávio,44.6,43,2026-04-30,-1.6,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Paraná Pesquisas-2026-05-08,BR043152026,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-05-08,2026-05-09,148,Cenário MT (1º turno),Lula,29.8,37.5,2026-04-30,7.7,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Quaest/Genial-2026-05-13,BR035982026,Quaest/Genial,2026-05-13,2026-05-09,148,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,39,37.5,2026-04-30,-1.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Quaest/Genial-2026-05-13,BR035982026,Quaest/Genial,2026-05-13,2026-05-09,148,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,33,43,2026-04-30,10,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Quaest/Genial-2026-05-13,BR035982026,Quaest/Genial,2026-05-13,2026-05-09,148,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,4,1.65,2026-04-30,-2.35,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Quaest/Genial-2026-05-13,BR035982026,Quaest/Genial,2026-05-13,2026-05-09,148,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,4,4.7,2026-04-30,0.7,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-00290/2026,BR002902026,Datafolha,2026-05-15,2026-05-13,144,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,39,45.5,2026-05-13,6.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-00290/2026,BR002902026,Datafolha,2026-05-15,2026-05-13,144,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,35,28.45,2026-05-13,-6.55,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-AtlasIntel-2026-05-19,BR069392026,AtlasIntel,2026-05-19,2026-05-15,142,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,47,42.5,2026-05-15,-4.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-AtlasIntel-2026-05-19,BR069392026,AtlasIntel,2026-05-19,2026-05-15,142,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,34.3,33.35,2026-05-15,-0.95,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Vox Brasil-2026-05-20,BR024162026,Vox Brasil,2026-05-20,2026-05-18,139,Cenário Principal (2º turno),Lula,46.8,44.5,2026-05-17,-2.3,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Vox Brasil-2026-05-20,BR024162026,Vox Brasil,2026-05-20,2026-05-18,139,Cenário Principal (2º turno),Flávio,38.1,31.3,2026-05-17,-6.8,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Datafolha-2026-05-22,BR074892026,Datafolha,2026-05-22,2026-05-21,136,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,40,45.5,2026-05-21,5.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Datafolha-2026-05-22,BR074892026,Datafolha,2026-05-22,2026-05-21,136,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,31,24.75,2026-05-21,-6.25,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Indexa Pesquisas-2026-05-27,BR021542026,Indexa Pesquisas,2026-05-27,2026-05-23,134,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,39,45.5,2026-05-23,6.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Indexa Pesquisas-2026-05-27,BR021542026,Indexa Pesquisas,2026-05-27,2026-05-23,134,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,30,27.75,2026-05-23,-2.25,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-02918/2026,BR029182026,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-28,2026-05-25,132,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,38.5,39.5,2026-05-25,1,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-02918/2026,BR029182026,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-28,2026-05-25,132,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,31.5,27.65,2026-05-25,-3.85,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-02918/2026,BR029182026,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-28,2026-05-25,132,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,5.5,1.65,2026-05-25,-3.85,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-02918/2026,BR029182026,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-28,2026-05-25,132,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,2.4,4.75,2026-05-25,2.35,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-02918/2026,BR029182026,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-28,2026-05-25,132,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,2.1,13.05,2026-05-25,10.95,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-05864/2026,BR058642026,Real Time Big Data,2026-06-01,2026-05-29,128,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,38,40.5,2026-05-29,2.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-05864/2026,BR058642026,Real Time Big Data,2026-06-01,2026-05-29,128,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,31,28.65,2026-05-29,-2.35,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-05864/2026,BR058642026,Real Time Big Data,2026-06-01,2026-05-29,128,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,6,1.35,2026-05-29,-4.65,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-05864/2026,BR058642026,Real Time Big Data,2026-06-01,2026-05-29,128,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,6,15.6,2026-05-29,9.6,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-05864/2026,BR058642026,Real Time Big Data,2026-06-01,2026-05-29,128,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,4,2.75,2026-05-29,-1.25,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-08016/2026,BR080162026,Vox Brasil,2026-06-05,2026-06-02,124,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,42.1,39.5,2026-06-02,-2.6,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-08016/2026,BR080162026,Vox Brasil,2026-06-05,2026-06-02,124,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,33.6,33.4,2026-06-02,-0.2,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-08016/2026,BR080162026,Vox Brasil,2026-06-05,2026-06-02,124,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,6.9,2,2026-06-02,-4.9,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Quaest/Genial-2026-06-10,BR076612026,Quaest/Genial,2026-06-10,2026-06-06,120,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,39,40.5,2026-06-06,1.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Quaest/Genial-2026-06-10,BR076612026,Quaest/Genial,2026-06-10,2026-06-06,120,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,29,28.15,2026-06-06,-0.85,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Quaest/Genial-2026-06-10,BR076612026,Quaest/Genial,2026-06-10,2026-06-06,120,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,3,16.7,2026-06-06,13.7,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Quaest/Genial-2026-06-10,BR076612026,Quaest/Genial,2026-06-10,2026-06-06,120,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,3,1.95,2026-06-06,-1.05,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Quaest/Genial-2026-06-10,BR076612026,Quaest/Genial,2026-06-10,2026-06-06,120,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,2,3.05,2026-06-06,1.05,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-06645/2026,BR066452026,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-15,2026-06-13,113,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,42,49.5,2026-06-13,7.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-06645/2026,BR066452026,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-15,2026-06-13,113,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,33,26.55,2026-06-13,-6.45,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-04256/2026,BR042562026,CNT/MDA,2026-06-16,2026-06-12,114,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,41.8,47.5,2026-06-12,5.7,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-04256/2026,BR042562026,CNT/MDA,2026-06-16,2026-06-12,114,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,28.2,26.5,2026-06-12,-1.7,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-04256/2026,BR042562026,CNT/MDA,2026-06-16,2026-06-12,114,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,4,1.6,2026-06-12,-2.4,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-04256/2026,BR042562026,CNT/MDA,2026-06-16,2026-06-12,114,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,2.8,1.2,2026-06-12,-1.6,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-04256/2026,BR042562026,CNT/MDA,2026-06-16,2026-06-12,114,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,2,13.7,2026-06-12,11.7,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-01461/2026,BR014612026,Futura/Apex,2026-06-16,2026-06-10,116,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,41.6,44.5,2026-06-10,2.9,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-01461/2026,BR014612026,Futura/Apex,2026-06-16,2026-06-10,116,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,34.1,28.65,2026-06-10,-5.45,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-09956/2026,BR099562026,Datafolha,2026-06-20,2026-06-18,108,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,41,50.5,2026-06-18,9.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-09956/2026,BR099562026,Datafolha,2026-06-20,2026-06-18,108,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,31,25.95,2026-06-18,-5.05,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-09956/2026,BR099562026,Datafolha,2026-06-20,2026-06-18,108,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,3,2.2,2026-06-18,-0.8,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-09956/2026,BR099562026,Datafolha,2026-06-20,2026-06-18,108,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,3,14.55,2026-06-18,11.55,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-09956/2026,BR099562026,Datafolha,2026-06-20,2026-06-18,108,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,2,1.45,2026-06-18,-0.55,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Indexa Pesquisas-2026-06-23,BR089442026,Indexa Pesquisas,2026-06-23,2026-06-19,107,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,42,51.5,2026-06-19,9.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Indexa Pesquisas-2026-06-23,BR089442026,Indexa Pesquisas,2026-06-23,2026-06-19,107,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,31,25.75,2026-06-19,-5.25,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Gerp-2026-06-24,BR096572026,Gerp,2026-06-24,2026-06-17,109,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,37,50.5,2026-06-17,13.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Gerp-2026-06-24,BR096572026,Gerp,2026-06-24,2026-06-17,109,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,34,24.05,2026-06-17,-9.95,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-PoderData/Aya-2026-06-25,BR057222026,PoderData/Aya,2026-06-25,2026-06-22,104,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,40,55.5,2026-06-22,15.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-PoderData/Aya-2026-06-25,BR057222026,PoderData/Aya,2026-06-25,2026-06-22,104,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,36,23.75,2026-06-22,-12.25,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-PoderData/Aya-2026-06-25,BR057222026,PoderData/Aya,2026-06-25,2026-06-22,104,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,4,13.7,2026-06-22,9.7,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-PoderData/Aya-2026-06-25,BR057222026,PoderData/Aya,2026-06-25,2026-06-22,104,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,4,1.55,2026-06-22,-2.45,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Vox Brasil-2026-06-27,BR066302026,Vox Brasil,2026-06-27,2026-06-24,102,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,38.3,57.5,2026-06-24,19.2,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-Vox Brasil-2026-06-27,BR066302026,Vox Brasil,2026-06-27,2026-06-24,102,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,32.2,22.9,2026-06-24,-9.3,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-08521/2026,BR085212026,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-29,2026-06-27,99,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,42,56.5,2026-06-27,14.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-08521/2026,BR085212026,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-29,2026-06-27,99,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,34,22.15,2026-06-27,-11.85,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-08521/2026,BR085212026,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-29,2026-06-27,99,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,5,1.3,2026-06-27,-3.7,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-08521/2026,BR085212026,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-29,2026-06-27,99,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,4,11.65,2026-06-27,7.65,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-08521/2026,BR085212026,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-29,2026-06-27,99,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,3,1.25,2026-06-27,-1.75,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-04582/2026,BR045822026,AtlasIntel,2026-07-01,2026-06-27,99,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,46.3,56.5,2026-06-27,10.2,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-04582/2026,BR045822026,AtlasIntel,2026-07-01,2026-06-27,99,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,36.6,22.15,2026-06-27,-14.45,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-05628/2026,BR056282026,Ideia/Canal Meio,2026-07-08,2026-07-04,92,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,40.4,60.5,2026-07-04,20.1,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-05628/2026,BR056282026,Ideia/Canal Meio,2026-07-08,2026-07-04,92,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,32,22.4,2026-07-04,-9.6,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-05628/2026,BR056282026,Ideia/Canal Meio,2026-07-08,2026-07-04,92,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,4,1.05,2026-07-04,-2.95,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-05628/2026,BR056282026,Ideia/Canal Meio,2026-07-08,2026-07-04,92,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,2.5,1.05,2026-07-04,-1.45,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
-BR-05628/2026,BR056282026,Ideia/Canal Meio,2026-07-08,2026-07-04,92,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,2,9.95,2026-07-04,7.95,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-03627/2026,,Real Time Big Data,2026-05-05,,152,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,40,37.5,2026-04-30,-2.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-03627/2026,,Real Time Big Data,2026-05-05,,152,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,34,43,2026-04-30,9,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-03627/2026,,Real Time Big Data,2026-05-05,,152,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,5,1.65,2026-04-30,-3.35,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-03627/2026,,Real Time Big Data,2026-05-05,,152,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,4,4.7,2026-04-30,0.7,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-03627/2026,,Real Time Big Data,2026-05-05,,152,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,3,5.65,2026-04-30,2.65,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Paraná Pesquisas-2026-05-07,,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-05-07,,150,Cenário SP (1º turno),Flávio,39.3,43,2026-04-30,3.7,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Paraná Pesquisas-2026-05-07,,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-05-07,,150,Cenário SP (1º turno),Lula,36,37.5,2026-04-30,1.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Paraná Pesquisas-2026-05-08,,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-05-08,,149,Cenário MT (1º turno),Flávio,44.6,43,2026-04-30,-1.6,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Paraná Pesquisas-2026-05-08,,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-05-08,,149,Cenário MT (1º turno),Lula,29.8,37.5,2026-04-30,7.7,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Quaest/Genial-2026-05-13,,Quaest/Genial,2026-05-13,,144,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,39,45.5,2026-05-13,6.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Quaest/Genial-2026-05-13,,Quaest/Genial,2026-05-13,,144,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,33,28.45,2026-05-13,-4.55,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Quaest/Genial-2026-05-13,,Quaest/Genial,2026-05-13,,144,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,4,1.25,2026-05-13,-2.75,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Quaest/Genial-2026-05-13,,Quaest/Genial,2026-05-13,,144,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,4,12,2026-05-13,8,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-00290/2026,,Datafolha,2026-05-15,,142,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,39,42.5,2026-05-15,3.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-00290/2026,,Datafolha,2026-05-15,,142,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,35,33.35,2026-05-15,-1.65,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+AtlasIntel-2026-05-19,,AtlasIntel,2026-05-19,,138,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,47,44.5,2026-05-19,-2.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+AtlasIntel-2026-05-19,,AtlasIntel,2026-05-19,,138,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,34.3,31.3,2026-05-19,-3,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Vox Brasil-2026-05-20,,Vox Brasil,2026-05-20,,137,Cenário Principal (2º turno),Lula,46.8,44.5,2026-05-19,-2.3,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Vox Brasil-2026-05-20,,Vox Brasil,2026-05-20,,137,Cenário Principal (2º turno),Flávio,38.1,31.3,2026-05-19,-6.8,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Datafolha-2026-05-22,,Datafolha,2026-05-22,,135,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,40,45.5,2026-05-22,5.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Datafolha-2026-05-22,,Datafolha,2026-05-22,,135,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,31,28.05,2026-05-22,-2.95,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Indexa Pesquisas-2026-05-27,,Indexa Pesquisas,2026-05-27,,130,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,39,40.5,2026-05-27,1.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Indexa Pesquisas-2026-05-27,,Indexa Pesquisas,2026-05-27,,130,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,30,28.75,2026-05-27,-1.25,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-02918/2026,,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-28,,129,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,38.5,41.5,2026-05-28,3,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-02918/2026,,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-28,,129,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,31.5,28.65,2026-05-28,-2.85,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-02918/2026,,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-28,,129,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,5.5,1.45,2026-05-28,-4.05,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-02918/2026,,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-28,,129,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,2.4,2.85,2026-05-28,0.45,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-02918/2026,,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-28,,129,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,2.1,15.05,2026-05-28,12.95,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-05864/2026,,Real Time Big Data,2026-06-01,,125,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,38,40.5,2026-06-01,2.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-05864/2026,,Real Time Big Data,2026-06-01,,125,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,31,29.2,2026-06-01,-1.8,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-05864/2026,,Real Time Big Data,2026-06-01,,125,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,6,2.6,2026-06-01,-3.4,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-05864/2026,,Real Time Big Data,2026-06-01,,125,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,6,16.8,2026-06-01,10.8,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-05864/2026,,Real Time Big Data,2026-06-01,,125,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,4,2.8,2026-06-01,-1.2,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-08016/2026,,Vox Brasil,2026-06-05,,121,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,42.1,41.5,2026-06-05,-0.6,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-08016/2026,,Vox Brasil,2026-06-05,,121,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,33.6,28.2,2026-06-05,-5.4,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-08016/2026,,Vox Brasil,2026-06-05,,121,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,6.9,2.35,2026-06-05,-4.55,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Quaest/Genial-2026-06-10,,Quaest/Genial,2026-06-10,,116,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,39,44.5,2026-06-10,5.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Quaest/Genial-2026-06-10,,Quaest/Genial,2026-06-10,,116,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,29,28.65,2026-06-10,-0.35,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Quaest/Genial-2026-06-10,,Quaest/Genial,2026-06-10,,116,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,3,16.65,2026-06-10,13.65,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Quaest/Genial-2026-06-10,,Quaest/Genial,2026-06-10,,116,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,3,1.75,2026-06-10,-1.25,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Quaest/Genial-2026-06-10,,Quaest/Genial,2026-06-10,,116,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,2,1.85,2026-06-10,-0.15,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-06645/2026,,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-15,,111,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,42,51.5,2026-06-15,9.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-06645/2026,,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-15,,111,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,33,25.55,2026-06-15,-7.45,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-04256/2026,,CNT/MDA,2026-06-16,,110,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,41.8,51.5,2026-06-16,9.7,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-04256/2026,,CNT/MDA,2026-06-16,,110,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,28.2,25.35,2026-06-16,-2.85,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-04256/2026,,CNT/MDA,2026-06-16,,110,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,4,1.95,2026-06-16,-2.05,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-04256/2026,,CNT/MDA,2026-06-16,,110,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,2.8,1.35,2026-06-16,-1.45,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-04256/2026,,CNT/MDA,2026-06-16,,110,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,2,14.05,2026-06-16,12.05,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-01461/2026,,Futura/Apex,2026-06-16,,110,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,41.6,51.5,2026-06-16,9.9,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-01461/2026,,Futura/Apex,2026-06-16,,110,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,34.1,25.35,2026-06-16,-8.75,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-09956/2026,,Datafolha,2026-06-20,,106,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,41,51.5,2026-06-20,10.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-09956/2026,,Datafolha,2026-06-20,,106,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,31,25.05,2026-06-20,-5.95,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-09956/2026,,Datafolha,2026-06-20,,106,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,3,2.25,2026-06-20,-0.75,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-09956/2026,,Datafolha,2026-06-20,,106,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,3,14.35,2026-06-20,11.35,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-09956/2026,,Datafolha,2026-06-20,,106,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,2,1.45,2026-06-20,-0.55,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Indexa Pesquisas-2026-06-23,,Indexa Pesquisas,2026-06-23,,103,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,42,53.5,2026-06-23,11.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Indexa Pesquisas-2026-06-23,,Indexa Pesquisas,2026-06-23,,103,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,31,25.55,2026-06-23,-5.45,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Gerp-2026-06-24,,Gerp,2026-06-24,,102,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,37,57.5,2026-06-24,20.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Gerp-2026-06-24,,Gerp,2026-06-24,,102,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,34,22.9,2026-06-24,-11.1,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+PoderData/Aya-2026-06-25,,PoderData/Aya,2026-06-25,,101,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,40,56.5,2026-06-25,16.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+PoderData/Aya-2026-06-25,,PoderData/Aya,2026-06-25,,101,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,36,23.45,2026-06-25,-12.55,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+PoderData/Aya-2026-06-25,,PoderData/Aya,2026-06-25,,101,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,4,11.45,2026-06-25,7.45,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+PoderData/Aya-2026-06-25,,PoderData/Aya,2026-06-25,,101,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,4,1.65,2026-06-25,-2.35,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Vox Brasil-2026-06-27,,Vox Brasil,2026-06-27,,99,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,38.3,56.5,2026-06-27,18.2,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+Vox Brasil-2026-06-27,,Vox Brasil,2026-06-27,,99,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,32.2,22.15,2026-06-27,-10.05,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-08521/2026,,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-29,,97,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,42,56.5,2026-06-29,14.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-08521/2026,,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-29,,97,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,34,23.55,2026-06-29,-10.45,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-08521/2026,,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-29,,97,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,5,1.25,2026-06-29,-3.75,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-08521/2026,,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-29,,97,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,4,12.55,2026-06-29,8.55,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-08521/2026,,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-29,,97,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,3,1.2,2026-06-29,-1.8,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-04582/2026,,AtlasIntel,2026-07-01,,95,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,46.3,57.5,2026-07-01,11.2,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-04582/2026,,AtlasIntel,2026-07-01,,95,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,36.6,22.95,2026-07-01,-13.65,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-05628/2026,,Ideia/Canal Meio,2026-07-08,,88,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,40.4,61.5,2026-07-08,21.1,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-05628/2026,,Ideia/Canal Meio,2026-07-08,,88,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,32,22.45,2026-07-08,-9.55,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-05628/2026,,Ideia/Canal Meio,2026-07-08,,88,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,4,1.35,2026-07-08,-2.65,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-05628/2026,,Ideia/Canal Meio,2026-07-08,,88,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,2.5,0.95,2026-07-08,-1.55,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-05628/2026,,Ideia/Canal Meio,2026-07-08,,88,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,2,9.65,2026-07-08,7.65,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-03067/2026,,Gerp,2026-07-08,,88,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,36,61.5,2026-07-08,25.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-03067/2026,,Gerp,2026-07-08,,88,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,36,22.45,2026-07-08,-13.55,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-03067/2026,,Gerp,2026-07-08,,88,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,4,1.35,2026-07-08,-2.65,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-03067/2026,,Gerp,2026-07-08,,88,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,2,9.65,2026-07-08,7.65,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
+BR-03067/2026,,Gerp,2026-07-08,,88,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,2,0.95,2026-07-08,-1.05,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare

polls/national-poll-results-firstround.csv

@@ -203,3 +203,10 @@ BR-05628/2026,BR-05628/2026,Ideia/Canal Meio,2026-07-08,2026-07-03 a 2026-07-06,
 BR-05628/2026,BR-05628/2026,Ideia/Canal Meio,2026-07-08,2026-07-03 a 2026-07-06,1500,2.5,Misto,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Romeu Zema,Novo,2.5
 BR-05628/2026,BR-05628/2026,Ideia/Canal Meio,2026-07-08,2026-07-03 a 2026-07-06,1500,2.5,Misto,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Aécio Neves,PSDB,2
 BR-05628/2026,BR-05628/2026,Ideia/Canal Meio,2026-07-08,2026-07-03 a 2026-07-06,1500,2.5,Misto,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan Santos,Missão,2
+BR-03067/2026,BR-03067/2026,Gerp,2026-07-08,2026-07-03 a 2026-07-07,2000,2.2,Misto,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,PT,36
+BR-03067/2026,BR-03067/2026,Gerp,2026-07-08,2026-07-03 a 2026-07-07,2000,2.2,Misto,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio Bolsonaro,PL,36
+BR-03067/2026,BR-03067/2026,Gerp,2026-07-08,2026-07-03 a 2026-07-07,2000,2.2,Misto,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Ronaldo Caiado,PSD,4
+BR-03067/2026,BR-03067/2026,Gerp,2026-07-08,2026-07-03 a 2026-07-07,2000,2.2,Misto,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan Santos,Missão,2
+BR-03067/2026,BR-03067/2026,Gerp,2026-07-08,2026-07-03 a 2026-07-07,2000,2.2,Misto,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Romeu Zema,Novo,2
+BR-03067/2026,BR-03067/2026,Gerp,2026-07-08,2026-07-03 a 2026-07-07,2000,2.2,Misto,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Augusto Cury,Avante,1
+BR-03067/2026,BR-03067/2026,Gerp,2026-07-08,2026-07-03 a 2026-07-07,2000,2.2,Misto,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Joaquim Barbosa,DC,1

polls/national-poll-results-secondround.csv

@@ -52,3 +52,11 @@ BR-08521/2026,BR-08521/2026,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-29,Lula vs Flávio,Lula,47,Flávio
 BR-04582/2026,BR-04582/2026,AtlasIntel,2026-07-01,Lula vs Flávio,Lula,48.8,Flávio Bolsonaro,42.3
 BR-05628/2026,BR-05628/2026,Ideia/Canal Meio,2026-07-08,Lula vs Flávio,Lula,45,Flávio Bolsonaro,40
 BR-05628/2026,BR-05628/2026,Ideia/Canal Meio,2026-07-08,Lula vs Michelle,Lula,45,Michelle Bolsonaro,36
+BR-03067/2026,BR-03067/2026,Gerp,2026-07-08,Lula vs Flávio,Lula,42,Flávio Bolsonaro,45
+BR-03067/2026,BR-03067/2026,Gerp,2026-07-08,Lula vs Michelle,Lula,45,Michelle Bolsonaro,41
+BR-03067/2026,BR-03067/2026,Gerp,2026-07-08,Lula vs Caiado,Lula,40,Ronaldo Caiado,36
+BR-03067/2026,BR-03067/2026,Gerp,2026-07-08,Lula vs Zema,Lula,41,Romeu Zema,36
+BR-03067/2026,BR-03067/2026,Gerp,2026-07-08,Lula vs Damares,Lula,41,Damares Alves,34
+BR-03067/2026,BR-03067/2026,Gerp,2026-07-08,Lula vs Marcos Pontes,Lula,42,Marcos Pontes,34
+BR-03067/2026,BR-03067/2026,Gerp,2026-07-08,Lula vs Rogério Marinho,Lula,41,Rogério Marinho,32
+BR-03067/2026,BR-03067/2026,Gerp,2026-07-08,Lula vs Renan Santos,Lula,41,Renan Santos,30

polls/polls-data-2026-07-11.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "lastUpdate": "2026-07-11",
+  "lastUpdate": "2026-07-12",
   "lastSyncedAt": "2026-05-31T18:40:00-03:00",
   "institutes": [
     {
@@ -183,6 +183,111 @@
       ],
       "source": "Meio/Ideia via JOTA, Estadão, CartaCapital, Correio Braziliense, Brasil de Fato, Poder360, Revista Fórum 08/Jul"
     },
+    {
+      "institute": "Gerp",
+      "date": "2026-07-08",
+      "sample": 2000,
+      "margin": 2.2,
+      "register": "BR-03067/2026",
+      "reliability": 3,
+      "method": "Misto",
+      "fieldDates": "2026-07-03 a 2026-07-07",
+      "note": "Gerp/AESP nacional publicada 08/Jul (Poder360, Gazeta do Povo, Exame, CNN Brasil, CartaCapital). Empate no 1T: Lula 36% x Flávio 36%; Caiado 4%, Renan Santos e Zema 2%, Cury e Joaquim Barbosa 1%; não sabe 11%, nenhum deles 6%. No 2T, Flávio 45% x Lula 42% (Flávio à frente, mas dentro da margem de 2,2pp). Lula vence os demais cenários de 2T (Michelle 45x41, Caiado 40x36, Zema 41x36, Damares 41x34, Pontes 42x34, Marinho 41x32, Renan 41x30). Campo 3-7/Jul, n=2.000, margem 2,2pp, 95% de confiança, contratada pela AESP (Associação das Empresas de Rádio e Televisão de SP), custo R$ 34.899. Protocolo TSE BR-03067/2026. CONTEXTO CRÍTICO: publicada no MESMO DIA que a Meio/Ideia (BR-05628/2026), com vencedor OPOSTO no 2º turno (Ideia dá Lula 45x40; Gerp dá Flávio 45x42). A Gerp mantém o padrão de OUTLIER já registrado na rodada de 24/Jun: é consistentemente mais favorável a Flávio que o consenso Tier 1 (Datafolha, Indexa, BTG/Nexus, CNT/MDA), todas com Lula confortável. Instituto de menor porte, reliability 3. DIVERGÊNCIA MÁXIMA COM O MERCADO: enquanto a Gerp tem empate no 1T e Flávio ganhando o 2T, o Polymarket precifica Lula 60,5% x Flávio 23,25% (gap 37,25pp em 12/Jul). É o maior descolamento mercado x pesquisa do ciclo até aqui. Entrada adicionada em 12/Jul após auditoria de escopo: o registro veio do TSE sem texto de metodologia (scope_source=none), foi classificado como unknown e ficou fora do corte nacional; escopo NACIONAL confirmado em 2 primárias independentes (Poder360 + Gazeta do Povo).",
+      "scenarios": [
+        {
+          "name": "Cenário Principal (1º turno)",
+          "results": [
+            {
+              "candidate": "Lula (PT)",
+              "percent": 36
+            },
+            {
+              "candidate": "Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)",
+              "percent": 36
+            },
+            {
+              "candidate": "Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)",
+              "percent": 4
+            },
+            {
+              "candidate": "Renan Santos (Missão)",
+              "percent": 2
+            },
+            {
+              "candidate": "Romeu Zema (Novo)",
+              "percent": 2
+            },
+            {
+              "candidate": "Augusto Cury (Avante)",
+              "percent": 1
+            },
+            {
+              "candidate": "Joaquim Barbosa (DC)",
+              "percent": 1
+            }
+          ]
+        }
+      ],
+      "secondRound": [
+        {
+          "matchup": "Lula vs Flávio",
+          "candidate1": "Lula",
+          "percent1": 42,
+          "candidate2": "Flávio Bolsonaro",
+          "percent2": 45
+        },
+        {
+          "matchup": "Lula vs Michelle",
+          "candidate1": "Lula",
+          "percent1": 45,
+          "candidate2": "Michelle Bolsonaro",
+          "percent2": 41
+        },
+        {
+          "matchup": "Lula vs Caiado",
+          "candidate1": "Lula",
+          "percent1": 40,
+          "candidate2": "Ronaldo Caiado",
+          "percent2": 36
+        },
+        {
+          "matchup": "Lula vs Zema",
+          "candidate1": "Lula",
+          "percent1": 41,
+          "candidate2": "Romeu Zema",
+          "percent2": 36
+        },
+        {
+          "matchup": "Lula vs Damares",
+          "candidate1": "Lula",
+          "percent1": 41,
+          "candidate2": "Damares Alves",
+          "percent2": 34
+        },
+        {
+          "matchup": "Lula vs Marcos Pontes",
+          "candidate1": "Lula",
+          "percent1": 42,
+          "candidate2": "Marcos Pontes",
+          "percent2": 34
+        },
+        {
+          "matchup": "Lula vs Rogério Marinho",
+          "candidate1": "Lula",
+          "percent1": 41,
+          "candidate2": "Rogério Marinho",
+          "percent2": 32
+        },
+        {
+          "matchup": "Lula vs Renan Santos",
+          "candidate1": "Lula",
+          "percent1": 41,
+          "candidate2": "Renan Santos",
+          "percent2": 30
+        }
+      ],
+      "source": "Gerp/AESP via Poder360, Gazeta do Povo, Exame, CNN Brasil, CartaCapital 08/Jul"
+    },
     {
       "institute": "AtlasIntel",
       "date": "2026-07-01",

polls/sample-demographics.csv

@@ -1,180 +1 @@
 poll_id,register_tse,institute,poll_date,field_midpoint,dimension,category,pct,quota_detail_level
-Encomendada pela Record,BR093532026,Real Time Big Data/Record,2026-03-03,2026-03-01,sex,male,47.2,full_percentages
-Encomendada pela Record,BR093532026,Real Time Big Data/Record,2026-03-03,2026-03-01,sex,female,52.8,full_percentages
-Encomendada pela Record,BR093532026,Real Time Big Data/Record,2026-03-03,2026-03-01,age,16 anos,0.15,full_percentages
-Encomendada pela Record,BR093532026,Real Time Big Data/Record,2026-03-03,2026-03-01,education,Analfabeto,3.6,full_percentages
-Folha de S.Paulo,BR067982026,Datafolha,2026-03-07,2026-03-04,sex,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Folha de S.Paulo,BR067982026,Datafolha,2026-03-07,2026-03-04,age,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Folha de S.Paulo,BR067982026,Datafolha,2026-03-07,2026-03-04,education,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Folha de S.Paulo,BR067982026,Datafolha,2026-03-07,2026-03-04,income,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Folha de S.Paulo,BR067982026,Datafolha,2026-03-07,2026-03-04,region,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Genial Investimentos,BR029442026,Quaest/Genial Investimentos,2026-03-11,2026-03-08,sex,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Genial Investimentos,BR029442026,Quaest/Genial Investimentos,2026-03-11,2026-03-08,age,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Genial Investimentos,BR029442026,Quaest/Genial Investimentos,2026-03-11,2026-03-08,education,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Genial Investimentos,BR029442026,Quaest/Genial Investimentos,2026-03-11,2026-03-08,income,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Genial Investimentos,BR029442026,Quaest/Genial Investimentos,2026-03-11,2026-03-08,region,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-04227/2026,BR042272026,AtlasIntel/Bloomberg,2026-03-25,2026-03-20,sex,male,47.2,full_percentages
-BR-04227/2026,BR042272026,AtlasIntel/Bloomberg,2026-03-25,2026-03-20,sex,female,52.8,full_percentages
-BR-04227/2026,BR042272026,AtlasIntel/Bloomberg,2026-03-25,2026-03-20,age,Entre 16 a 24 anos,11.9,full_percentages
-BR-04227/2026,BR042272026,AtlasIntel/Bloomberg,2026-03-25,2026-03-20,age,Entre 25 a 34 anos,19.3,full_percentages
-BR-04227/2026,BR042272026,AtlasIntel/Bloomberg,2026-03-25,2026-03-20,age,Entre 35 a 44 anos,20.1,full_percentages
-BR-04227/2026,BR042272026,AtlasIntel/Bloomberg,2026-03-25,2026-03-20,age,Entre 45 a 59 anos,25.5,full_percentages
-BR-04227/2026,BR042272026,AtlasIntel/Bloomberg,2026-03-25,2026-03-20,age,60 ou mais,23.2,full_percentages
-BR-04227/2026,BR042272026,AtlasIntel/Bloomberg,2026-03-25,2026-03-20,education,Ensino Fundamental completo ou incompleto e eleitores sem educação formal,33.8,full_percentages
-BR-04227/2026,BR042272026,AtlasIntel/Bloomberg,2026-03-25,2026-03-20,education,Ensino Médio completo ou incompleto,40.7,full_percentages
-BR-04227/2026,BR042272026,AtlasIntel/Bloomberg,2026-03-25,2026-03-20,education,Ensino Superior completo ou incompleto,25.5,full_percentages
-BR-04227/2026,BR042272026,AtlasIntel/Bloomberg,2026-03-25,2026-03-20,income,Renda familiar mensal até R$2000,22.4,full_percentages
-BR-04227/2026,BR042272026,AtlasIntel/Bloomberg,2026-03-25,2026-03-20,income,Mais de R$2.000 a R$3.000,17.1,full_percentages
-BR-04227/2026,BR042272026,AtlasIntel/Bloomberg,2026-03-25,2026-03-20,income,Mais de R$3.000 a R$5.000,23.1,full_percentages
-BR-04227/2026,BR042272026,AtlasIntel/Bloomberg,2026-03-25,2026-03-20,income,Mais de R$5.000 a R$10.000,23.9,full_percentages
-BR-04227/2026,BR042272026,AtlasIntel/Bloomberg,2026-03-25,2026-03-20,income,Mais de R$10.000,13.5,full_percentages
-AESP (Assoc. Emissoras SP),BR028462026,Gerp/AESP,2026-03-27,2026-03-24,sex,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-AESP (Assoc. Emissoras SP),BR028462026,Gerp/AESP,2026-03-27,2026-03-24,age,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-AESP (Assoc. Emissoras SP),BR028462026,Gerp/AESP,2026-03-27,2026-03-24,income,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-00873/2026,BR008732026,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-03-30,2026-03-26,age,| Entre 25 e 34 anos,19,full_percentages
-BR-00873/2026,BR008732026,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-03-30,2026-03-26,age,| Entre 35 e 44 anos,20,full_percentages
-BR-00873/2026,BR008732026,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-03-30,2026-03-26,age,| Entre 45 e 59 anos,26,full_percentages
-BR-00873/2026,BR008732026,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-03-30,2026-03-26,age,| Com 60 anos ou mais,23,full_percentages
-BR-00873/2026,BR008732026,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-03-30,2026-03-26,education,| Ensino médio incompleto ou completo,45,full_percentages
-BR-07875/2026,BR078752026,Nexus/BTG Pactual,2026-03-30,2026-03-28,sex,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-07875/2026,BR078752026,Nexus/BTG Pactual,2026-03-30,2026-03-28,age,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-07875/2026,BR078752026,Nexus/BTG Pactual,2026-03-30,2026-03-28,education,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-07875/2026,BR078752026,Nexus/BTG Pactual,2026-03-30,2026-03-28,income,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-07875/2026,BR078752026,Nexus/BTG Pactual,2026-03-30,2026-03-28,region,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-03627/2026,BR036272026,Real Time Big Data,2026-05-05,2026-05-03,sex,male,47.17,full_percentages
-BR-03627/2026,BR036272026,Real Time Big Data,2026-05-05,2026-05-03,sex,female,52.83,full_percentages
-BR-03627/2026,BR036272026,Real Time Big Data,2026-05-05,2026-05-03,age,16 anos,0.23,full_percentages
-BR-03627/2026,BR036272026,Real Time Big Data,2026-05-05,2026-05-03,education,Analfabeto,3.54,full_percentages
-Meio/Ideia-2026-05-06,BR053562026,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-06,2026-05-03,sex,male,47,full_percentages
-Meio/Ideia-2026-05-06,BR053562026,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-06,2026-05-03,sex,female,53,full_percentages
-Meio/Ideia-2026-05-06,BR053562026,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-06,2026-05-03,education,Fundamental,38,full_percentages
-Meio/Ideia-2026-05-06,BR053562026,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-06,2026-05-03,education,Médio,40,full_percentages
-Meio/Ideia-2026-05-06,BR053562026,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-06,2026-05-03,income,Economicamente Ativo,62,full_percentages
-Genial/Quaest-2026-05-06,BR035982026,Genial/Quaest,2026-05-06,2026-05-09,sex,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Genial/Quaest-2026-05-06,BR035982026,Genial/Quaest,2026-05-06,2026-05-09,age,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Genial/Quaest-2026-05-06,BR035982026,Genial/Quaest,2026-05-06,2026-05-09,education,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Genial/Quaest-2026-05-06,BR035982026,Genial/Quaest,2026-05-06,2026-05-09,income,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Genial/Quaest-2026-05-06,BR035982026,Genial/Quaest,2026-05-06,2026-05-09,region,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Paraná Pesquisas-2026-05-07,BR043152026,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-05-07,2026-05-09,age,| Entre 25 e 34 anos,19,full_percentages
-Paraná Pesquisas-2026-05-07,BR043152026,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-05-07,2026-05-09,age,| Entre 35 e 44 anos,19,full_percentages
-Paraná Pesquisas-2026-05-07,BR043152026,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-05-07,2026-05-09,age,| Entre 45 e 59 anos,26,full_percentages
-Paraná Pesquisas-2026-05-07,BR043152026,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-05-07,2026-05-09,age,| Com 60 anos ou mais,25,full_percentages
-Paraná Pesquisas-2026-05-07,BR043152026,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-05-07,2026-05-09,education,| Ensino médio incompleto ou completo,44,full_percentages
-Quaest-2026-05-08,BR035982026,Quaest,2026-05-08,2026-05-09,sex,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Quaest-2026-05-08,BR035982026,Quaest,2026-05-08,2026-05-09,age,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Quaest-2026-05-08,BR035982026,Quaest,2026-05-08,2026-05-09,education,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Quaest-2026-05-08,BR035982026,Quaest,2026-05-08,2026-05-09,income,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Quaest-2026-05-08,BR035982026,Quaest,2026-05-08,2026-05-09,region,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Paraná Pesquisas-2026-05-08,BR043152026,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-05-08,2026-05-09,age,| Entre 25 e 34 anos,19,full_percentages
-Paraná Pesquisas-2026-05-08,BR043152026,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-05-08,2026-05-09,age,| Entre 35 e 44 anos,19,full_percentages
-Paraná Pesquisas-2026-05-08,BR043152026,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-05-08,2026-05-09,age,| Entre 45 e 59 anos,26,full_percentages
-Paraná Pesquisas-2026-05-08,BR043152026,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-05-08,2026-05-09,age,| Com 60 anos ou mais,25,full_percentages
-Paraná Pesquisas-2026-05-08,BR043152026,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-05-08,2026-05-09,education,| Ensino médio incompleto ou completo,44,full_percentages
-Quaest/Genial-2026-05-13,BR035982026,Quaest/Genial,2026-05-13,2026-05-09,sex,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Quaest/Genial-2026-05-13,BR035982026,Quaest/Genial,2026-05-13,2026-05-09,age,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Quaest/Genial-2026-05-13,BR035982026,Quaest/Genial,2026-05-13,2026-05-09,education,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Quaest/Genial-2026-05-13,BR035982026,Quaest/Genial,2026-05-13,2026-05-09,income,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Quaest/Genial-2026-05-13,BR035982026,Quaest/Genial,2026-05-13,2026-05-09,region,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-00290/2026,BR002902026,Datafolha,2026-05-15,2026-05-13,sex,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-00290/2026,BR002902026,Datafolha,2026-05-15,2026-05-13,age,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-00290/2026,BR002902026,Datafolha,2026-05-15,2026-05-13,education,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-00290/2026,BR002902026,Datafolha,2026-05-15,2026-05-13,income,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-00290/2026,BR002902026,Datafolha,2026-05-15,2026-05-13,region,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-AtlasIntel-2026-05-19,BR069392026,AtlasIntel,2026-05-19,2026-05-15,sex,male,47.2,full_percentages
-AtlasIntel-2026-05-19,BR069392026,AtlasIntel,2026-05-19,2026-05-15,sex,female,52.8,full_percentages
-AtlasIntel-2026-05-19,BR069392026,AtlasIntel,2026-05-19,2026-05-15,age,Entre 16 a 24 anos,12.3,full_percentages
-AtlasIntel-2026-05-19,BR069392026,AtlasIntel,2026-05-19,2026-05-15,age,Entre 25 a 34 anos,19.1,full_percentages
-AtlasIntel-2026-05-19,BR069392026,AtlasIntel,2026-05-19,2026-05-15,age,Entre 35 a 44 anos,19.9,full_percentages
-AtlasIntel-2026-05-19,BR069392026,AtlasIntel,2026-05-19,2026-05-15,age,Entre 45 a 59 anos,25.5,full_percentages
-AtlasIntel-2026-05-19,BR069392026,AtlasIntel,2026-05-19,2026-05-15,age,60 ou mais,23.3,full_percentages
-AtlasIntel-2026-05-19,BR069392026,AtlasIntel,2026-05-19,2026-05-15,education,Ensino Fundamental completo ou incompleto e eleitores sem educação formal,33.8,full_percentages
-AtlasIntel-2026-05-19,BR069392026,AtlasIntel,2026-05-19,2026-05-15,education,Ensino Médio completo ou incompleto,40.7,full_percentages
-AtlasIntel-2026-05-19,BR069392026,AtlasIntel,2026-05-19,2026-05-15,education,Ensino Superior completo ou incompleto,25.5,full_percentages
-AtlasIntel-2026-05-19,BR069392026,AtlasIntel,2026-05-19,2026-05-15,income,Renda familiar mensal até R$2000,22.4,full_percentages
-AtlasIntel-2026-05-19,BR069392026,AtlasIntel,2026-05-19,2026-05-15,income,Mais de R$2.000 a R$3.000,17.1,full_percentages
-AtlasIntel-2026-05-19,BR069392026,AtlasIntel,2026-05-19,2026-05-15,income,Mais de R$3.000 a R$5.000,23.1,full_percentages
-AtlasIntel-2026-05-19,BR069392026,AtlasIntel,2026-05-19,2026-05-15,income,Mais de R$5.000 a R$10.000,23.9,full_percentages
-AtlasIntel-2026-05-19,BR069392026,AtlasIntel,2026-05-19,2026-05-15,income,Mais de R$10.000,13.5,full_percentages
-Vox Brasil-2026-05-20,BR024162026,Vox Brasil,2026-05-20,2026-05-18,sex,male,47.18,full_percentages
-Vox Brasil-2026-05-20,BR024162026,Vox Brasil,2026-05-20,2026-05-18,sex,female,52.82,full_percentages
-Datafolha-2026-05-22,BR074892026,Datafolha,2026-05-22,2026-05-21,sex,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Datafolha-2026-05-22,BR074892026,Datafolha,2026-05-22,2026-05-21,age,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Datafolha-2026-05-22,BR074892026,Datafolha,2026-05-22,2026-05-21,education,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Datafolha-2026-05-22,BR074892026,Datafolha,2026-05-22,2026-05-21,income,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Datafolha-2026-05-22,BR074892026,Datafolha,2026-05-22,2026-05-21,region,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Indexa Pesquisas-2026-05-27,BR021542026,Indexa Pesquisas,2026-05-27,2026-05-23,sex,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Indexa Pesquisas-2026-05-27,BR021542026,Indexa Pesquisas,2026-05-27,2026-05-23,age,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Indexa Pesquisas-2026-05-27,BR021542026,Indexa Pesquisas,2026-05-27,2026-05-23,education,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Indexa Pesquisas-2026-05-27,BR021542026,Indexa Pesquisas,2026-05-27,2026-05-23,income,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Indexa Pesquisas-2026-05-27,BR021542026,Indexa Pesquisas,2026-05-27,2026-05-23,region,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-02918/2026,BR029182026,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-28,2026-05-25,sex,male,47,full_percentages
-BR-02918/2026,BR029182026,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-28,2026-05-25,sex,female,53,full_percentages
-BR-02918/2026,BR029182026,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-28,2026-05-25,education,Fundamental,38,full_percentages
-BR-02918/2026,BR029182026,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-28,2026-05-25,education,Médio,40,full_percentages
-BR-02918/2026,BR029182026,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-28,2026-05-25,income,Economicamente Ativo,62,full_percentages
-BR-05864/2026,BR058642026,Real Time Big Data,2026-06-01,2026-05-29,sex,male,47.18,full_percentages
-BR-05864/2026,BR058642026,Real Time Big Data,2026-06-01,2026-05-29,sex,female,52.82,full_percentages
-BR-05864/2026,BR058642026,Real Time Big Data,2026-06-01,2026-05-29,age,16 anos,0.34,full_percentages
-BR-05864/2026,BR058642026,Real Time Big Data,2026-06-01,2026-05-29,education,Analfabeto,3.52,full_percentages
-BR-08016/2026,BR080162026,Vox Brasil,2026-06-05,2026-06-02,sex,male,47.18,full_percentages
-BR-08016/2026,BR080162026,Vox Brasil,2026-06-05,2026-06-02,sex,female,52.82,full_percentages
-Quaest/Genial-2026-06-10,BR076612026,Quaest/Genial,2026-06-10,2026-06-06,sex,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Quaest/Genial-2026-06-10,BR076612026,Quaest/Genial,2026-06-10,2026-06-06,age,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Quaest/Genial-2026-06-10,BR076612026,Quaest/Genial,2026-06-10,2026-06-06,education,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Quaest/Genial-2026-06-10,BR076612026,Quaest/Genial,2026-06-10,2026-06-06,income,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Quaest/Genial-2026-06-10,BR076612026,Quaest/Genial,2026-06-10,2026-06-06,region,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-06645/2026,BR066452026,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-15,2026-06-13,sex,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-06645/2026,BR066452026,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-15,2026-06-13,age,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-06645/2026,BR066452026,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-15,2026-06-13,education,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-06645/2026,BR066452026,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-15,2026-06-13,income,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-06645/2026,BR066452026,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-15,2026-06-13,region,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-04256/2026,BR042562026,CNT/MDA,2026-06-16,2026-06-12,sex,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-04256/2026,BR042562026,CNT/MDA,2026-06-16,2026-06-12,age,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-04256/2026,BR042562026,CNT/MDA,2026-06-16,2026-06-12,education,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-04256/2026,BR042562026,CNT/MDA,2026-06-16,2026-06-12,income,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-04256/2026,BR042562026,CNT/MDA,2026-06-16,2026-06-12,region,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-01461/2026,BR014612026,Futura/Apex,2026-06-16,2026-06-10,sex,male,47.1,full_percentages
-BR-01461/2026,BR014612026,Futura/Apex,2026-06-16,2026-06-10,sex,female,52.9,full_percentages
-BR-09956/2026,BR099562026,Datafolha,2026-06-20,2026-06-18,sex,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-09956/2026,BR099562026,Datafolha,2026-06-20,2026-06-18,age,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-09956/2026,BR099562026,Datafolha,2026-06-20,2026-06-18,education,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-09956/2026,BR099562026,Datafolha,2026-06-20,2026-06-18,income,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-09956/2026,BR099562026,Datafolha,2026-06-20,2026-06-18,region,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Indexa Pesquisas-2026-06-23,BR089442026,Indexa Pesquisas,2026-06-23,2026-06-19,sex,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Indexa Pesquisas-2026-06-23,BR089442026,Indexa Pesquisas,2026-06-23,2026-06-19,age,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Indexa Pesquisas-2026-06-23,BR089442026,Indexa Pesquisas,2026-06-23,2026-06-19,education,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Indexa Pesquisas-2026-06-23,BR089442026,Indexa Pesquisas,2026-06-23,2026-06-19,income,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Indexa Pesquisas-2026-06-23,BR089442026,Indexa Pesquisas,2026-06-23,2026-06-19,region,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Gerp-2026-06-24,BR096572026,Gerp,2026-06-24,2026-06-17,sex,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Gerp-2026-06-24,BR096572026,Gerp,2026-06-24,2026-06-17,age,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-Gerp-2026-06-24,BR096572026,Gerp,2026-06-24,2026-06-17,income,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-PoderData/Aya-2026-06-25,BR057222026,PoderData/Aya,2026-06-25,2026-06-22,sex,male,47.2,full_percentages
-PoderData/Aya-2026-06-25,BR057222026,PoderData/Aya,2026-06-25,2026-06-22,sex,female,52.8,full_percentages
-PoderData/Aya-2026-06-25,BR057222026,PoderData/Aya,2026-06-25,2026-06-22,income,Sem rendimentos até 2 SM,45.8,full_percentages
-Vox Brasil-2026-06-27,BR066302026,Vox Brasil,2026-06-27,2026-06-24,sex,male,47.18,full_percentages
-Vox Brasil-2026-06-27,BR066302026,Vox Brasil,2026-06-27,2026-06-24,sex,female,52.82,full_percentages
-BR-08521/2026,BR085212026,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-29,2026-06-27,sex,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-08521/2026,BR085212026,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-29,2026-06-27,age,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-08521/2026,BR085212026,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-29,2026-06-27,education,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-08521/2026,BR085212026,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-29,2026-06-27,income,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-08521/2026,BR085212026,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-29,2026-06-27,region,"(declared, no % in registry)",,mentioned_no_pct
-BR-04582/2026,BR045822026,AtlasIntel,2026-07-01,2026-06-27,sex,male,47.2,full_percentages
-BR-04582/2026,BR045822026,AtlasIntel,2026-07-01,2026-06-27,sex,female,52.8,full_percentages
-BR-04582/2026,BR045822026,AtlasIntel,2026-07-01,2026-06-27,age,Entre 16 a 24 anos,12.6,full_percentages
-BR-04582/2026,BR045822026,AtlasIntel,2026-07-01,2026-06-27,age,Entre 25 a 34 anos,19,full_percentages
-BR-04582/2026,BR045822026,AtlasIntel,2026-07-01,2026-06-27,age,Entre 35 a 44 anos,19.8,full_percentages
-BR-04582/2026,BR045822026,AtlasIntel,2026-07-01,2026-06-27,age,Entre 45 a 59 anos,25.4,full_percentages
-BR-04582/2026,BR045822026,AtlasIntel,2026-07-01,2026-06-27,age,60 ou mais,23.1,full_percentages
-BR-04582/2026,BR045822026,AtlasIntel,2026-07-01,2026-06-27,education,Ensino Fundamental completo ou incompleto e eleitores sem educação formal,33.8,full_percentages
-BR-04582/2026,BR045822026,AtlasIntel,2026-07-01,2026-06-27,education,Ensino Médio completo ou incompleto,40.7,full_percentages
-BR-04582/2026,BR045822026,AtlasIntel,2026-07-01,2026-06-27,education,Ensino Superior completo ou incompleto,25.5,full_percentages
-BR-04582/2026,BR045822026,AtlasIntel,2026-07-01,2026-06-27,income,Renda familiar mensal até R$2000,22.4,full_percentages
-BR-04582/2026,BR045822026,AtlasIntel,2026-07-01,2026-06-27,income,Mais de R$2.000 a R$3.000,17.1,full_percentages
-BR-04582/2026,BR045822026,AtlasIntel,2026-07-01,2026-06-27,income,Mais de R$3.000 a R$5.000,23.1,full_percentages
-BR-04582/2026,BR045822026,AtlasIntel,2026-07-01,2026-06-27,income,Mais de R$5.000 a R$10.000,23.9,full_percentages
-BR-04582/2026,BR045822026,AtlasIntel,2026-07-01,2026-06-27,income,Mais de R$10.000,13.5,full_percentages
-BR-05628/2026,BR056282026,Ideia/Canal Meio,2026-07-08,2026-07-04,sex,male,47,full_percentages
-BR-05628/2026,BR056282026,Ideia/Canal Meio,2026-07-08,2026-07-04,sex,female,53,full_percentages
-BR-05628/2026,BR056282026,Ideia/Canal Meio,2026-07-08,2026-07-04,education,Fundamental,38,full_percentages
-BR-05628/2026,BR056282026,Ideia/Canal Meio,2026-07-08,2026-07-04,education,Médio,40,full_percentages
-BR-05628/2026,BR056282026,Ideia/Canal Meio,2026-07-08,2026-07-04,income,Economicamente Ativo,62,full_percentages

polls/tse-registry.json

@@ -217,8 +217,8 @@
       "municipality_data": "Será complementado no prazo previsto na Resolução-TSE n° 23.600/2019",
       "uf": "BR",
       "electoral_unit": "BRASIL",
-      "scope": "unknown",
-      "scope_source": "none"
+      "scope": "state",
+      "scope_source": "methodology"
     },
     {
       "register_tse": "BR034792026",
@@ -1561,7 +1561,7 @@
       "municipality_data": "A área de abrangência da coleta é o município de BRASILIA - DF. As localidades selecionadas na amostra são: Dados relativos aos municípios e bairros abrangidos pela pesquisa. Na ausência de delimitação do bairro, será identificada a área em que foi realizada a pesquisa(conforme §7º. do art. 2º. da Resolução-TSE nº. 23.600/2019, A partir do dia em que a pesquisa puder ser divulgada e até o dia seguinte, o registro deverá ser complementado, sob pena de ser a pesquisa considerada não registrada; na ausência de delimitação do bairro, será identificada a área em que foi realizada):",
       "uf": "BR",
       "electoral_unit": "BRASIL",
-      "scope": "national",
+      "scope": "state",
       "scope_source": "methodology"
     },
     {
@@ -1754,7 +1754,7 @@
       "uf": "BR",
       "electoral_unit": "BRASIL",
       "scope": "national",
-      "scope_source": "sampling_plan"
+      "scope_source": "methodology"
     },
     {
       "register_tse": "BR074792026",
@@ -2113,8 +2113,8 @@
       "municipality_data": "A área de abrangência da coleta é o município de ARACAJU - SE. As localidades selecionadas na amostra são: Dados relativos aos municípios e bairros abrangidos pela pesquisa. Na ausência de delimitação do bairro, será identificada a área em que foi realizada a pesquisa(conforme §7º. do art. 2º. da Resolução-TSE nº. 23.600/2019, A partir do dia em que a pesquisa puder ser divulgada e até o dia seguinte, o registro deverá ser complementado, sob pena de ser a pesquisa considerada não registrada; na ausência de delimitação do bairro, será identificada a área em que foi realizada):",
       "uf": "BR",
       "electoral_unit": "BRASIL",
-      "scope": "unknown",
-      "scope_source": "none"
+      "scope": "state",
+      "scope_source": "dado_municipio"
     },
     {
       "register_tse": "BR088792026",
@@ -4729,8 +4729,8 @@
       "municipality_data": "Nos Bairros: 50 Novo Horizonte, 04 Conjunto Raul Bacelar, 18 Poliesportivo, 07 Maranhão, 13 Pista Nova, 10 COHAB, 07 Iêda, 05 Conjunto Solimar Dantas, 16 Valentim, 25 Campestre, 16 Barrinha, 22 Armando Lima, 24 São Francisco, 11 Piçarreira, 39 Centro, 29 Morada Nova, 32 Lavanderia, 21 Valencinha, 20 Vale Verde, 14 Bela Flor e 07 Conjunto Jaime Lima Verde, e Rural, nas Localidades: 13 Fumal, 10 Palmeirinha, 12 Tabuleta, 11 Mesa de Pedra, 14 João Pires, 08 Tranqueira, 06 Aparecida, 10 Oiticica, 01 Aracati, 05 Pau D¿arco, 02 Assentamento São José, 05 Cana Brava e 13 Izidória.",
       "uf": "BR",
       "electoral_unit": "BRASIL",
-      "scope": "unknown",
-      "scope_source": "none"
+      "scope": "state",
+      "scope_source": "sampling_plan"
     },
     {
       "register_tse": "BR092092026",
@@ -4898,7 +4898,7 @@
       "uf": "BR",
       "electoral_unit": "BRASIL",
       "scope": "state",
-      "scope_source": "sampling_plan"
+      "scope_source": "methodology"
     },
     {
       "register_tse": "BR012472026",
@@ -5041,8 +5041,8 @@
       "municipality_data": "A relação das localidades e setores censitários selecionadas para aplicação da amostra será apresentada a partir do dia em que a pesquisa puder ser divulgada e até o dia seguinte, conforme expresso no art. 2º, §7º da Resolução 23.600/2019 do TSE.",
       "uf": "BR",
       "electoral_unit": "BRASIL",
-      "scope": "national",
-      "scope_source": "sampling_plan"
+      "scope": "state",
+      "scope_source": "methodology"
     },
     {
       "register_tse": "BR024232026",
@@ -5329,8 +5329,8 @@
       "municipality_data": "A relação das localidades e setores censitários selecionadas para aplicação da amostra será apresentada a partir do dia em que a pesquisa puder ser divulgada e até o dia seguinte, conforme expresso no art. 2º, §7º da Resolução 23.600/2019 do TSE.",
       "uf": "BR",
       "electoral_unit": "BRASIL",
-      "scope": "national",
-      "scope_source": "sampling_plan"
+      "scope": "state",
+      "scope_source": "methodology"
     },
     {
       "register_tse": "BR047272026",
@@ -5377,8 +5377,8 @@
       "municipality_data": "EM ANEXO.",
       "uf": "BR",
       "electoral_unit": "BRASIL",
-      "scope": "national",
-      "scope_source": "sampling_plan"
+      "scope": "state",
+      "scope_source": "methodology"
     },
     {
       "register_tse": "BR043152026",
@@ -5809,8 +5809,8 @@
       "municipality_data": "Dados relativos aos municípios e bairros abrangidos pela pesquisa. Na ausência de delimitação do bairro, será identificada a área em que foi realizada a pesquisa (conforme §7º do art. 2º da Resolução-TSE nº 23.600/2019). A partir do dia em que a pesquisa puder ser divulgada e até o dia seguinte, o registro deverá ser complementado, sob pena de ser a pesquisa considerada não registrada; na ausência de delimitação do bairro, será identificada a área em que foi realizada.",
       "uf": "BR",
       "electoral_unit": "BRASIL",
-      "scope": "unknown",
-      "scope_source": "none"
+      "scope": "state",
+      "scope_source": "methodology"
     },
     {
       "register_tse": "BR007262026",