Daily Papers

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's t distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we demonstrate Student's t specifications outperform Gaussian models in 88.4\% of cases. Bounded probability-weighting transformations preserve mathematical properties required for dynamic pricing. Gaussian models underestimate 99\% Value-at-Risk by 19.7\% versus 3.2\% for our specification. Joint estimation procedures identify tail and behavioral parameters with established asymptotic properties. Results provide robust inference for asset-pricing applications where heavy tails and behavioral distortions coexist.

Marcinkiewicz strong law of large numbers, {n^{-frac1p}}sum_{k=1}^{n} (d_{k}- d)rightarrow 0 almost surely with pin(1,2), are developed for products d_k=prod_{r=1}^s x_k^{(r)}, where the x_k^{(r)} = sum_{l=-infty}^{infty}c_{k-l}^{(r)}xi_l^{(r)} are two-sided linear processes with coefficients {c_l^{(r)}}_{lin Z} and i.i.d. zero-mean innovations {xi_l^{(r)}}_{lin Z}. The decay of the coefficients c_l^{(r)} as |l|toinfty, can be slow enough for {x_k^{(r)}} to have long memory while {d_k} can have heavy tails. The long-range dependence and heavy tails for {d_k} are handled simultaneously and a decoupling property shows the convergence rate is dictated by the worst of long-range dependence and heavy tails, but not their combination. The Marcinkiewicz strong law of large numbers is also extended to the multivariate linear process case.

Heavy-tail phenomena in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) have been reported in several empirical studies. Experimental evidence in previous works suggests a strong interplay between the heaviness of the tails and generalization behavior of SGD. To address this empirical phenomena theoretically, several works have made strong topological and statistical assumptions to link the generalization error to heavy tails. Very recently, new generalization bounds have been proven, indicating a non-monotonic relationship between the generalization error and heavy tails, which is more pertinent to the reported empirical observations. While these bounds do not require additional topological assumptions given that SGD can be modeled using a heavy-tailed stochastic differential equation (SDE), they can only apply to simple quadratic problems. In this paper, we build on this line of research and develop generalization bounds for a more general class of objective functions, which includes non-convex functions as well. Our approach is based on developing Wasserstein stability bounds for heavy-tailed SDEs and their discretizations, which we then convert to generalization bounds. Our results do not require any nontrivial assumptions; yet, they shed more light to the empirical observations, thanks to the generality of the loss functions.

When facing data with imbalanced classes or groups, practitioners follow an intriguing strategy to achieve best results. They throw away examples until the classes or groups are balanced in size, and then perform empirical risk minimization on the reduced training set. This opposes common wisdom in learning theory, where the expected error is supposed to decrease as the dataset grows in size. In this work, we leverage extreme value theory to address this apparent contradiction. Our results show that the tails of the data distribution play an important role in determining the worst-group-accuracy of linear classifiers. When learning on data with heavy tails, throwing away data restores the geometric symmetry of the resulting classifier, and therefore improves its worst-group generalization.

Deep generative models are routinely used in generating samples from complex, high-dimensional distributions. Despite their apparent successes, their statistical properties are not well understood. A common assumption is that with enough training data and sufficiently large neural networks, deep generative model samples will have arbitrarily small errors in sampling from any continuous target distribution. We set up a unifying framework that debunks this belief. We demonstrate that broad classes of deep generative models, including variational autoencoders and generative adversarial networks, are not universal generators. Under the predominant case of Gaussian latent variables, these models can only generate concentrated samples that exhibit light tails. Using tools from concentration of measure and convex geometry, we give analogous results for more general log-concave and strongly log-concave latent variable distributions. We extend our results to diffusion models via a reduction argument. We use the Gromov--Levy inequality to give similar guarantees when the latent variables lie on manifolds with positive Ricci curvature. These results shed light on the limited capacity of common deep generative models to handle heavy tails. We illustrate the empirical relevance of our work with simulations and financial data.

This study evaluates deep neural networks for forecasting probability distributions of financial returns. 1D convolutional neural networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architectures are used to forecast parameters of three probability distributions: Normal, Student's t, and skewed Student's t. Using custom negative log-likelihood loss functions, distribution parameters are optimized directly. The models are tested on six major equity indices (S\&P 500, BOVESPA, DAX, WIG, Nikkei 225, and KOSPI) using probabilistic evaluation metrics including Log Predictive Score (LPS), Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), and Probability Integral Transform (PIT). Results show that deep learning models provide accurate distributional forecasts and perform competitively with classical GARCH models for Value-at-Risk estimation. The LSTM with skewed Student's t distribution performs best across multiple evaluation criteria, capturing both heavy tails and asymmetry in financial returns. This work shows that deep neural networks are viable alternatives to traditional econometric models for financial risk assessment and portfolio management.

Foundation models have transformed domains from language to genomics by learning general-purpose representations from large-scale, heterogeneous data. We introduce TradeFM, a 524M-parameter generative Transformer that brings this paradigm to market microstructure, learning directly from billions of trade events across >9K equities. To enable cross-asset generalization, we develop scale-invariant features and a universal tokenization scheme that map the heterogeneous, multi-modal event stream of order flow into a unified discrete sequence -- eliminating asset-specific calibration. Integrated with a deterministic market simulator, TradeFM-generated rollouts reproduce key stylized facts of financial returns, including heavy tails, volatility clustering, and absence of return autocorrelation. Quantitatively, TradeFM achieves 2-3x lower distributional error than Compound Hawkes baselines and generalizes zero-shot to geographically out-of-distribution APAC markets with moderate perplexity degradation. Together, these results suggest that scale-invariant trade representations capture transferable structure in market microstructure, opening a path toward synthetic data generation, stress testing, and learning-based trading agents.

Classical estimators for ARIMA parameters (MLE, CSS, OLS) assume Gaussian innovations, an assumption frequently violated in financial and economic data exhibiting asymmetric distributions with heavy tails. We develop and validate the second-order polynomial maximization method (PMM2) for estimating ARIMA(p,d,q) models with non-Gaussian innovations. PMM2 is a semiparametric technique that exploits higher-order moments and cumulants without requiring full distributional specification. Monte Carlo experiments (128,000 simulations) across sample sizes N in {100, 200, 500, 1000} and four innovation distributions demonstrate that PMM2 substantially outperforms classical methods for asymmetric innovations. For ARIMA(1,1,0) with N=500, relative efficiency reaches 1.58--1.90 for Gamma, lognormal, and χ^2(3) innovations (37--47\% variance reduction). Under Gaussian innovations PMM2 matches OLS efficiency, avoiding the precision loss typical of robust estimators. The method delivers major gains for moderate asymmetry (|γ_3| geq 0.5) and N geq 200, with computational costs comparable to MLE. PMM2 provides an effective alternative for time series with asymmetric innovations typical of financial markets, macroeconomic indicators, and industrial measurements. Future extensions include seasonal SARIMA models, GARCH integration, and automatic order selection.

Learning the tail behavior of a distribution is a notoriously difficult problem. By definition, the number of samples from the tail is small, and deep generative models, such as normalizing flows, tend to concentrate on learning the body of the distribution. In this paper, we focus on improving the ability of normalizing flows to correctly capture the tail behavior and, thus, form more accurate models. We prove that the marginal tailedness of an autoregressive flow can be controlled via the tailedness of the marginals of its base distribution. This theoretical insight leads us to a novel type of flows based on flexible base distributions and data-driven linear layers. An empirical analysis shows that the proposed method improves on the accuracy -- especially on the tails of the distribution -- and is able to generate heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate its application on a weather and climate example, in which capturing the tail behavior is essential.

Adam has been shown to outperform gradient descent on large language models by a larger margin than on other tasks, but it is unclear why. We show that a key factor in this performance gap is the heavy-tailed class imbalance found in language tasks. When trained with gradient descent, the loss of infrequent words decreases more slowly than the loss of frequent ones. This leads to a slow decrease on the average loss as most samples come from infrequent words. On the other hand, Adam and sign-based methods are less sensitive to this problem. To establish that this behavior is caused by class imbalance, we show empirically that it can be reproduced across architectures and data types, on language transformers, vision CNNs, and linear models. On a linear model with cross-entropy loss, we show that class imbalance leads to imbalanced, correlated gradients and Hessians that have been hypothesized to benefit Adam. We also prove that, in continuous time, gradient descent converges slowly on low-frequency classes while sign descent does not.

We study generative modeling on convex domains using flow matching and mirror maps, and identify two fundamental challenges. First, standard log-barrier mirror maps induce heavy-tailed dual distributions, leading to ill-posed dynamics. Second, coupling with Gaussian priors performs poorly when matching heavy-tailed targets. To address these issues, we propose Mirror Flow Matching based on a regularized mirror map that controls dual tail behavior and guarantees finite moments, together with coupling to a Student-t prior that aligns with heavy-tailed targets and stabilizes training. We provide theoretical guarantees, including spatial Lipschitzness and temporal regularity of the velocity field, Wasserstein convergence rates for flow matching with Student-t priors and primal-space guarantees for constrained generation, under varepsilon-accurate learned velocity fields. Empirically, our method outperforms baselines in synthetic convex-domain simulations and achieves competitive sample quality on real-world constrained generative tasks.

This paper investigates the problem of generalized linear bandits with heavy-tailed rewards, whose (1+epsilon)-th moment is bounded for some epsilonin (0,1]. Although there exist methods for generalized linear bandits, most of them focus on bounded or sub-Gaussian rewards and are not well-suited for many real-world scenarios, such as financial markets and web-advertising. To address this issue, we propose two novel algorithms based on truncation and mean of medians. These algorithms achieve an almost optimal regret bound of O(dT^{1{1+epsilon}}), where d is the dimension of contextual information and T is the time horizon. Our truncation-based algorithm supports online learning, distinguishing it from existing truncation-based approaches. Additionally, our mean-of-medians-based algorithm requires only O(log T) rewards and one estimator per epoch, making it more practical. Moreover, our algorithms improve the regret bounds by a logarithmic factor compared to existing algorithms when epsilon=1. Numerical experimental results confirm the merits of our algorithms.

In this paper, we study the problem of (finite horizon tabular) Markov decision processes (MDPs) with heavy-tailed rewards under the constraint of differential privacy (DP). Compared with the previous studies for private reinforcement learning that typically assume rewards are sampled from some bounded or sub-Gaussian distributions to ensure DP, we consider the setting where reward distributions have only finite (1+v)-th moments with some v in (0,1]. By resorting to robust mean estimators for rewards, we first propose two frameworks for heavy-tailed MDPs, i.e., one is for value iteration and another is for policy optimization. Under each framework, we consider both joint differential privacy (JDP) and local differential privacy (LDP) models. Based on our frameworks, we provide regret upper bounds for both JDP and LDP cases and show that the moment of distribution and privacy budget both have significant impacts on regrets. Finally, we establish a lower bound of regret minimization for heavy-tailed MDPs in JDP model by reducing it to the instance-independent lower bound of heavy-tailed multi-armed bandits in DP model. We also show the lower bound for the problem in LDP by adopting some private minimax methods. Our results reveal that there are fundamental differences between the problem of private RL with sub-Gaussian and that with heavy-tailed rewards.

Methods with adaptive stepsizes, such as AdaGrad and Adam, are essential for training modern Deep Learning models, especially Large Language Models. Typically, the noise in the stochastic gradients is heavy-tailed for the later ones. Gradient clipping provably helps to achieve good high-probability convergence for such noises. However, despite the similarity between AdaGrad/Adam and Clip-SGD, the high-probability convergence of AdaGrad/Adam has not been studied in this case. In this work, we prove that AdaGrad (and its delayed version) can have provably bad high-probability convergence if the noise is heavy-tailed. To fix this issue, we propose a new version of AdaGrad called Clip-RAdaGradD (Clipped Reweighted AdaGrad with Delay) and prove its high-probability convergence bounds with polylogarithmic dependence on the confidence level for smooth convex/non-convex stochastic optimization with heavy-tailed noise. Our empirical evaluations, including NLP model fine-tuning, highlight the superiority of clipped versions of AdaGrad/Adam in handling the heavy-tailed noise.

Self-improvement methods enable large language models (LLMs) to generate solutions themselves and iteratively train on filtered, high-quality rationales. This process proves effective and reduces the reliance on human supervision in LLMs' reasoning, but the performance soon plateaus. We delve into the process and find that models tend to over-sample on easy queries and under-sample on queries they have yet to master. As iterations proceed, this imbalance in sampling is exacerbated, leading to a long-tail distribution where solutions to difficult queries almost diminish. This phenomenon limits the performance gain of self-improving models. A straightforward solution is brute-force sampling to balance the distribution, which significantly raises computational costs. In this paper, we introduce Guided Self-Improvement (GSI), a strategy aimed at improving the efficiency of sampling challenging heavy-tailed data. It leverages Socratic-style guidance signals to help LLM reasoning with complex queries, reducing the exploration effort and minimizing computational overhead. Experiments on four models across diverse mathematical tasks show that GSI strikes a balance between performance and efficiency, while also being effective on held-out tasks.

The Muon optimizer is consistently faster than Adam in training Large Language Models (LLMs), yet the mechanism underlying its success remains unclear. This paper demystifies this mechanism through the lens of associative memory. By ablating the transformer components optimized by Muon, we reveal that the associative memory parameters of LLMs, namely the Value and Output (VO) attention weights and Feed-Forward Networks (FFNs), are the primary contributors to Muon's superiority. Motivated by this associative memory view, we then explain Muon's superiority on real-world corpora, which are intrinsically heavy-tailed: a few classes (tail classes) appear far less frequently than others. The superiority is explained through two key properties: (i) its update rule consistently yields a more isotropic singular spectrum than Adam; and as a result, (ii) on heavy-tailed data, it optimizes tail classes more effectively than Adam. Beyond empirical evidence, we theoretically confirm these findings by analyzing a one-layer associative memory model under class-imbalanced data. We prove that Muon consistently achieves balanced learning across classes regardless of feature embeddings, whereas Adam can induce large disparities in learning errors depending on embedding properties. In summary, our empirical observations and theoretical analyses reveal Muon's core advantage: its update rule aligns with the outer-product structure of linear associative memories, enabling more balanced and effective learning of tail classes in heavy-tailed distributions than Adam.

Off-policy problems such as policy staleness and training-inference mismatch, has become a major bottleneck for training stability and further exploration for LLM RL. To enhance inference efficiency, the distribution gap between the inference and updated policy grows, leading to heavy-tailed importance ratios. Heavy-tailed ratios arise when the policy is locally sharp, which further inflates sharp gradients and can push updates outside the trust region. To address this, we propose Adaptive Layerwise Perturbation(ALP) by injecting small learnable perturbations into input hidden states of each layer during updates, which is used as the numerator of the importance ratio against the unchanged inference policy in the objective. Intuitively, by adding controlled noise to intermediate representations, ALP prevents the updated policy from deviating too sharply from the inference policy, and enlarges the policy family to cover the inference policy family with mismatch noises. Hence, the flattened distribution can naturally tighten the updated and inference policy gap and reduce the tail of importance ratios, thus maintaining training stability. This is further validated empirically. Experiments on single-turn math and multi-turn tool-integrated reasoning tasks show that ALP not only improves final performance, but also avoid blow up of importance ratio tail and KL spikes during iterative training, along with boosted exploration. Ablations show that representation-level perturbations across all layers are most effective, substantially outperforming partial-layer and logits-only variants.

The heavy-tailed nature of precipitation intensity impedes precise precipitation nowcasting. Standard models that optimize pixel-wise losses are prone to regression-to-the-mean bias, which blurs extreme values. Existing Fourier-based methods also lack the spatial localization needed to resolve transient convective cells. To overcome these intrinsic limitations, we propose WADEPre, a wavelet-based decomposition model for extreme precipitation that transitions the modeling into the wavelet domain. By leveraging the Discrete Wavelet Transform for explicit decomposition, WADEPre employs a dual-branch architecture: an Approximation Network to model stable, low-frequency advection, isolating deterministic trends from statistical bias, and a spatially localized Detail Network to capture high-frequency stochastic convection, resolving transient singularities and preserving sharp boundaries. A subsequent Refiner module then dynamically reconstructs these decoupled multi-scale components into the final high-fidelity forecast. To address optimization instability, we introduce a multi-scale curriculum learning strategy that progressively shifts supervision from coarse scales to fine-grained details. Extensive experiments on the SEVIR and Shanghai Radar datasets demonstrate that WADEPre achieves state-of-the-art performance, yielding significant improvements in capturing extreme thresholds and maintaining structural fidelity. Our code is available at https://github.com/sonderlau/WADEPre.

The rapid rise of large language models (LLMs) has unlocked many applications but also underscores the challenge of aligning them with diverse values and preferences. Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) is central to alignment but constrained by fixed divergences and limited feature transformations. We propose DPO-Kernels, which integrates kernel methods to address these issues through four key contributions: (i) Kernelized Representations with polynomial, RBF, Mahalanobis, and spectral kernels for richer transformations, plus a hybrid loss combining embedding-based and probability-based objectives; (ii) Divergence Alternatives (Jensen-Shannon, Hellinger, Renyi, Bhattacharyya, Wasserstein, and f-divergences) for greater stability; (iii) Data-Driven Selection metrics that automatically choose the best kernel-divergence pair; and (iv) a Hierarchical Mixture of Kernels for both local precision and global modeling. Evaluations on 12 datasets demonstrate state-of-the-art performance in factuality, safety, reasoning, and instruction following. Grounded in Heavy-Tailed Self-Regularization, DPO-Kernels maintains robust generalization for LLMs, offering a comprehensive resource for further alignment research.

Modern Large Language Models (LLMs) are composed of matrices with billions of elements, making their storage and processing quite demanding in terms of computational resources and memory usage. Being significantly large, such matrices can often be expressed in low-rank format with potential to relax resource requirements. Unlike prior works which focus on developing novel matrix decomposition algorithms, in this work we first study the emergence of low-rank structures across matrices within different layers of LLMs and establish a consequential relationship between the gradient dynamics and emerging low-rank expressiveness of matrices. Our findings reveal that different layers exhibit varying levels of converged low-rank structure, necessitating a non-uniform rank reduction across them to minimize performance drop due to compression. In view of that, we present Weight Low-Rank Projection (WeLore) that unifies weight compression and memory-efficient fine-tuning as ONE, in a data-agnostic and one-shot way. WeLore capitalizes the heavy-tail distribution of singular values to identify a suitable rank reduction ratio for matrices within LLMs. Going beyond only as a compression technique, WeLore categorizes weight matrices into Low-rank Components (LRCs) and Non-Low-rank Components (N-LRCs) based on their ability to express themselves as low-rank. Our gradient perspective and extensive experiments illustrate that LRCs tend to have better finetuning capabilities and can closely mimic (sometimes outperform) the training loss trajectory and performance of full-finetuning with notable memory and compute footprint reduction. For example, finetuning a 50\% compressed LLaMa-2 7B model using only a fraction of parameters in LRCs (WeLore) can outperform its full finetuning with ~3x better throughput and ~0.6x GPU requirement. Our codes are available at https://github.com/VITA-Group/welore

Most existing video anomaly detectors rely solely on RGB frames, which lack the temporal resolution needed to capture abrupt or transient motion cues, key indicators of anomalous events. To address this limitation, we propose Image-Event Fusion for Video Anomaly Detection (IEF-VAD), a framework that synthesizes event representations directly from RGB videos and fuses them with image features through a principled, uncertainty-aware process. The system (i) models heavy-tailed sensor noise with a Student`s-t likelihood, deriving value-level inverse-variance weights via a Laplace approximation; (ii) applies Kalman-style frame-wise updates to balance modalities over time; and (iii) iteratively refines the fused latent state to erase residual cross-modal noise. Without any dedicated event sensor or frame-level labels, IEF-VAD sets a new state of the art across multiple real-world anomaly detection benchmarks. These findings highlight the utility of synthetic event representations in emphasizing motion cues that are often underrepresented in RGB frames, enabling accurate and robust video understanding across diverse applications without requiring dedicated event sensors. Code and models are available at https://github.com/EavnJeong/IEF-VAD.

We identify a new phenomenon in neural network optimization which arises from the interaction of depth and a particular heavy-tailed structure in natural data. Our result offers intuitive explanations for several previously reported observations about network training dynamics. In particular, it implies a conceptually new cause for progressive sharpening and the edge of stability; we also highlight connections to other concepts in optimization and generalization including grokking, simplicity bias, and Sharpness-Aware Minimization. Experimentally, we demonstrate the significant influence of paired groups of outliers in the training data with strong opposing signals: consistent, large magnitude features which dominate the network output throughout training and provide gradients which point in opposite directions. Due to these outliers, early optimization enters a narrow valley which carefully balances the opposing groups; subsequent sharpening causes their loss to rise rapidly, oscillating between high on one group and then the other, until the overall loss spikes. We describe how to identify these groups, explore what sets them apart, and carefully study their effect on the network's optimization and behavior. We complement these experiments with a mechanistic explanation on a toy example of opposing signals and a theoretical analysis of a two-layer linear network on a simple model. Our finding enables new qualitative predictions of training behavior which we confirm experimentally. It also provides a new lens through which to study and improve modern training practices for stochastic optimization, which we highlight via a case study of Adam versus SGD.

We introduce a novel framework for efficient sampling from complex, unnormalised target distributions by exploiting multiscale dynamics. Traditional score-based sampling methods either rely on learned approximations of the score function or involve computationally expensive nested Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) loops. In contrast, the proposed approach leverages stochastic averaging within a slow-fast system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to estimate intermediate scores along a diffusion path without training or inner-loop MCMC. Two algorithms are developed under this framework: MultALMC, which uses multiscale annealed Langevin dynamics, and MultCDiff, based on multiscale controlled diffusions for the reverse-time Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Both overdamped and underdamped variants are considered, with theoretical guarantees of convergence to the desired diffusion path. The framework is extended to handle heavy-tailed target distributions using Student's t-based noise models and tailored fast-process dynamics. Empirical results across synthetic and real-world benchmarks, including multimodal and high-dimensional distributions, demonstrate that the proposed methods are competitive with existing samplers in terms of accuracy and efficiency, without the need for learned models.

A collection of robust Mahalanobis distances for multivariate outlier detection is proposed, based on the notion of shrinkage. Robust intensity and scaling factors are optimally estimated to define the shrinkage. Some properties are investigated, such as affine equivariance and breakdown value. The performance of the proposal is illustrated through the comparison to other techniques from the literature, in a simulation study and with a real dataset. The behavior when the underlying distribution is heavy-tailed or skewed, shows the appropriateness of the method when we deviate from the common assumption of normality. The resulting high correct detection rates and low false detection rates in the vast majority of cases, as well as the significantly smaller computation time shows the advantages of our proposal.

Recent progress in Large Language Model (LLM) reasoning is increasingly driven by the refinement of post-training loss functions and alignment strategies. However, standard Reinforcement Learning (RL) paradigms like Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) remain constrained by static uniformity: uniform prompt sampling and a fixed number of rollouts per prompt. For heterogeneous, heavy-tailed reasoning data, this creates structural inefficiencies that waste compute on already-solved patterns while under-training the long tail of hard problems. To address this, we propose Multi-Adversary Group Distributionally Robust Optimization (GDRO), an optimization-first framework that moves beyond uniform reasoning models by dynamically adapting the training distribution. We introduce an Online Difficulty Classifier that partitions prompts into dynamic pass@k difficulty groups. We then propose two independent GDRO games for post-training: (1) Prompt-GDRO, which employs an EMA-debiased multiplicative-weights bandit sampler to target the intensive difficulty margin and upweight persistently hard groups without frequency bias; and (2) Rollout-GDRO, which uses a shadow-price controller to reallocate rollouts across groups, maximizing gradient variance reduction on hard tasks under a fixed mean budget (compute-neutral). We provide no-regret guarantees for both controllers and additionally a variance-proxy analysis motivating a square-root optimal rollout allocation for Rollout-GDRO. We validate our framework on the DAPO 14.1k dataset using Qwen3-Base models. Prompt-GDRO and Rollout-GDRO achieve average relative gains of +10.6% and +10.1%, respectively, in pass@8 accuracy across 1.7B, 4B, and 8B scales compared to the GRPO baseline. Qualitative analysis shows an emergent curriculum: the adversaries shift resources to the evolving reasoning frontier, enhancing the reasoning model's performance.

The complicated architecture and high training cost of vision transformers urge the exploration of post-training quantization. However, the heavy-tailed distribution of vision transformer activations hinders the effectiveness of previous post-training quantization methods, even with advanced quantizer designs. Instead of tuning the quantizer to better fit the complicated activation distribution, this paper proposes NoisyQuant, a quantizer-agnostic enhancement for the post-training activation quantization performance of vision transformers. We make a surprising theoretical discovery that for a given quantizer, adding a fixed Uniform noisy bias to the values being quantized can significantly reduce the quantization error under provable conditions. Building on the theoretical insight, NoisyQuant achieves the first success on actively altering the heavy-tailed activation distribution with additive noisy bias to fit a given quantizer. Extensive experiments show NoisyQuant largely improves the post-training quantization performance of vision transformer with minimal computation overhead. For instance, on linear uniform 6-bit activation quantization, NoisyQuant improves SOTA top-1 accuracy on ImageNet by up to 1.7%, 1.1% and 0.5% for ViT, DeiT, and Swin Transformer respectively, achieving on-par or even higher performance than previous nonlinear, mixed-precision quantization.

Region-of-Interest (ROI)-based image compression allocates bits unevenly according to the semantic importance of different regions. Such differentiated coding typically induces a sharp-peaked and heavy-tailed distribution. This distribution characteristic mathematically necessitates a probability model with adaptable shape parameters for accurate description. However, existing methods commonly use a Gaussian model to fit this distribution, resulting in a loss of coding performance. To systematically analyze the impact of this distribution on ROI coding, we develop a unified rate-distortion optimization theoretical paradigm. Building on this paradigm, we propose a novel Generalized Gaussian Model (GGM) to achieve flexible modeling of the latent variables distribution. To support stable optimization of GGM, we introduce effective differentiable functions and further propose a dynamic lower bound to alleviate train-test mismatch. Moreover, finite differences are introduced to solve the gradient computation after GGM fits the distribution. Experiments on COCO2017 demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art in both ROI reconstruction and downstream tasks (e.g., Segmentation, Object Detection). Furthermore, compared to classical probability models, our GGM provides a more precise fit to feature distributions and achieves superior coding performance. The project page is at https://github.com/hukai-tju/ROIGGM.

The rapid advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized various natural language processing tasks. However, the substantial size of LLMs presents significant challenges in training or fine-tuning. While parameter-efficient approaches such as low-rank adaptation (LoRA) have gained popularity, they often compromise performance compared to full-rank fine-tuning. In this paper, we propose Outlier-weighed Layerwise Sampled Low-Rank Projection (OwLore), a new memory-efficient fine-tuning approach, inspired by the layerwise outlier distribution of LLMs, which dynamically samples pre-trained layers to fine-tune instead of adding additional adaptors. We first interpret the outlier phenomenon through the lens of Heavy-Tailed Self-Regularization theory (HT-SR), discovering that layers with more outliers tend to be more heavy-tailed and consequently better trained. Inspired by this finding, OwLore strategically assigns higher sampling probabilities to layers with more outliers to better leverage the knowledge stored in pre-trained LLMs. To further mitigate the memory demands of fine-tuning, we integrate gradient low-rank projection into our approach, which facilitates each layer to be efficiently trained in a low-rank manner. By incorporating the efficient characteristics of low-rank and optimal layerwise sampling, OwLore significantly improves the memory-performance trade-off in LLM pruning. Our extensive experiments across various architectures, including LLaMa2, LLaMa3, and Mistral, demonstrate that OwLore consistently outperforms baseline approaches, including full fine-tuning. Specifically, it achieves up to a 1.1% average accuracy gain on the Commonsense Reasoning benchmark, a 3.0% improvement on MMLU, and a notable 10% boost on MT-Bench, while being more memory efficient. OwLore allows us to fine-tune LLaMa2-7B with only 21GB of memory.

We present ITQ3_S (Interleaved Ternary Quantization -- Specialized), a novel 3-bit weight quantization format for LLMs integrating TurboQuant (TQ), a rotation-domain strategy based on the Fast Walsh-Hadamard Transform (FWHT). Conventional 3-bit methods suffer precision loss from heavy-tailed weight distributions and inter-channel outliers. ITQ3_S pre-rotates the weight space via FWHT before quantization, spreading outlier energy across the vector and inducing a near-Gaussian distribution amenable to uniform ternary coding. We derive a rigorous dequantization procedure fusing a 256-point Inverse FWHT into the CUDA shared-memory loading stage, ensuring reconstruction error is bounded exclusively by the ternary quantization grid with no additional error from the transform inversion. For any weight vector w in R^{256}, the reconstruction satisfies |mathbf{w} - w|_2 leq ε_q, strictly smaller than uniform 3-bit baselines that do not exploit rotation-induced distribution normalization. TurboQuant lacks a native CUDA kernel, precluding direct deployment; naively composing TQ with existing weight quantizers introduces domain mismatch errors that accumulate across layers, degrading quality below standard 3-bit baselines. ITQ3_S resolves this by co-designing the FWHT rotation and quantization kernel as a unified pipeline grounded in the IQ3_S weight format, with the inverse transform fused into the CUDA MMQ kernel. Empirically, on the NVIDIA RTX 5090 (Blackwell), ITQ3_S achieves perplexity competitive with FP16 while delivering throughput exceeding 1.5x that of 4-bit alternatives via optimized DP4A and Tensor Core scheduling. Our results establish ITQ3_S as a practical, mathematically grounded solution for high-fidelity LLM deployment on consumer hardware.

Autonomous systems often must predict the motions of nearby agents from partial and noisy data. This paper asks and answers the question: "can we learn, in real-time, a nonlinear predictive model of another agent's motions?" Our online framework denoises and forecasts such dynamics using a modified sliding-window Hankel Dynamic Mode Decomposition (Hankel-DMD). Partial noisy measurements are embedded into a Hankel matrix, while an associated Page matrix enables singular-value hard thresholding (SVHT) to estimate the effective rank. A Cadzow projection enforces structured low-rank consistency, yielding a denoised trajectory and local noise variance estimates. From this representation, a time-varying Hankel-DMD lifted linear predictor is constructed for multi-step forecasts. The residual analysis provides variance-tracking signals that can support downstream estimators and risk-aware planning. We validate the approach in simulation under Gaussian and heavy-tailed noise, and experimentally on a dynamic crane testbed. Results show that the method achieves stable variance-aware denoising and short-horizon prediction suitable for integration into real-time control frameworks.

Predictive modeling on web-scale tabular data with billions of instances and hundreds of heterogeneous numerical features faces significant scalability challenges. These features exhibit anisotropy, heavy-tailed distributions, and non-stationarity, creating bottlenecks for models like Gradient Boosting Decision Trees and requiring laborious manual feature engineering. We introduce KMLP, a hybrid deep architecture integrating a shallow Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) front-end with a Gated Multilayer Perceptron (gMLP) backbone. The KAN front-end uses learnable activation functions to automatically model complex non-linear transformations for each feature, while the gMLP backbone captures high-order interactions. Experiments on public benchmarks and an industrial dataset with billions of samples show KMLP achieves state-of-the-art performance, with advantages over baselines like GBDTs increasing at larger scales, validating KMLP as a scalable deep learning paradigm for large-scale web tabular data.

Post-training quantization (PTQ) has emerged as a widely adopted technique for compressing and accelerating Large Language Models (LLMs). The major challenge in LLM quantization is that uneven and heavy-tailed data distributions can expand the quantization range, thereby reducing bit precision for most values. Recent methods attempt to eliminate outliers and balance inter-channel differences by employing linear transformations; however, they remain heuristic and are often overlook optimizing the data distribution across the entire quantization space.In this paper, we introduce Quantization Space Utilization Rate (QSUR), a novel metric that effectively assesses the quantizability of transformed data by measuring the space utilization of the data in the quantization space. We complement QSUR with mathematical derivations that examine the effects and limitations of various transformations, guiding our development of Orthogonal and Scaling Transformation-based Quantization (OSTQuant). OSQuant employs a learnable equivalent transformation, consisting of an orthogonal transformation and a scaling transformation, to optimize the distributions of weights and activations across the entire quantization space. Futhermore, we propose the KL-Top loss function, designed to mitigate noise during optimization while retaining richer semantic information within the limited calibration data imposed by PTQ. OSTQuant outperforms existing work on various LLMs and benchmarks. In the W4-only setting, it retains 99.5\% of the floating-point accuracy. In the more challenging W4A4KV4 configuration, OSTQuant reduces the performance gap by 32\% on the LLaMA-3-8B model compared to state-of-the-art methods. https://github.com/BrotherHappy/OSTQuant{https://github.com/BrotherHappy/OSTQuant}.

In online algorithm selection (OAS), instances of an algorithmic problem class are presented to an agent one after another, and the agent has to quickly select a presumably best algorithm from a fixed set of candidate algorithms. For decision problems such as satisfiability (SAT), quality typically refers to the algorithm's runtime. As the latter is known to exhibit a heavy-tail distribution, an algorithm is normally stopped when exceeding a predefined upper time limit. As a consequence, machine learning methods used to optimize an algorithm selection strategy in a data-driven manner need to deal with right-censored samples, a problem that has received little attention in the literature so far. In this work, we revisit multi-armed bandit algorithms for OAS and discuss their capability of dealing with the problem. Moreover, we adapt them towards runtime-oriented losses, allowing for partially censored data while keeping a space- and time-complexity independent of the time horizon. In an extensive experimental evaluation on an adapted version of the ASlib benchmark, we demonstrate that theoretically well-founded methods based on Thompson sampling perform specifically strong and improve in comparison to existing methods.

The relationship between computing systems and the brain has served as motivation for pioneering theoreticians since John von Neumann and Alan Turing. Uniform, scale-free biological networks, such as the brain, have powerful properties, including generalizing over time, which is the main barrier for Machine Learning on the path to Universal Reasoning Models. We introduce `Dragon Hatchling' (BDH), a new Large Language Model architecture based on a scale-free biologically inspired network of \n locally-interacting neuron particles. BDH couples strong theoretical foundations and inherent interpretability without sacrificing Transformer-like performance. BDH is a practical, performant state-of-the-art attention-based state space sequence learning architecture. In addition to being a graph model, BDH admits a GPU-friendly formulation. It exhibits Transformer-like scaling laws: empirically BDH rivals GPT2 performance on language and translation tasks, at the same number of parameters (10M to 1B), for the same training data. BDH can be represented as a brain model. The working memory of BDH during inference entirely relies on synaptic plasticity with Hebbian learning using spiking neurons. We confirm empirically that specific, individual synapses strengthen connection whenever BDH hears or reasons about a specific concept while processing language inputs. The neuron interaction network of BDH is a graph of high modularity with heavy-tailed degree distribution. The BDH model is biologically plausible, explaining one possible mechanism which human neurons could use to achieve speech. BDH is designed for interpretability. Activation vectors of BDH are sparse and positive. We demonstrate monosemanticity in BDH on language tasks. Interpretability of state, which goes beyond interpretability of neurons and model parameters, is an inherent feature of the BDH architecture.

We study weight-only post-training quantization (PTQ), which quantizes the weights of a large language model (LLM) without retraining, using little or no calibration data. Weight-only PTQ is crucial for reducing the memory footprint and latency of LLM inference, especially in memory-bound, small-batch inference scenarios, such as personalized inference on edge devices. Despite its importance, irregular weight distributions with heavy-tailed outliers in LLMs complicate quantization, recently motivating rotation-based methods that transform weights into near-Gaussian distributions, which are more regular with fewer outliers, thereby reducing quantization error. In this work, we first derive the information-theoretically optimal bit allocation for Gaussianized weights under given bit budgets, revealing that fine-grained fractional-bit quantizers approaching the Gaussian distortion-rate bound are essential to achieve near-optimal quantization performance. To bridge this theoretical insight and practical implementation, we introduce Q-Palette, a versatile collection of fractional-bit quantizers that range from trellis-coded quantizers offering near-optimal distortion to simpler vector and scalar quantizers optimized for faster inference, all efficiently implemented with optimized CUDA kernels across various bitwidths. Furthermore, leveraging Q-Palette as a foundational component, we propose a novel mixed-scheme quantization framework, jointly optimizing quantizer choices and layer fusion decisions given resource constraints. The code is available at https://github.com/snu-mllab/Q-Palette.

The Forward-Forward (FF) algorithm trains networks layer-by-layer using a local "goodness function," yet sum-of-squares (SoS) has remained the only choice studied. We systematically explore the goodness-function design space and identify a unifying principle: the goodness function must be sensitive to the shape of neural activity, not its total energy. This principle is motivated by the observation that deep network activations follow heavy-tailed distributions and that discriminative information is often concentrated in peak activities. We propose two complementary families: selective functions (top-k, entmax-weighted energy) that measure only peak activity, and shape-sensitive functions (excess kurtosis / "burstiness" and higher-order moments) that reward heavy-tailed distributions via scale-invariant statistics. Combined with separate label-feature forwarding (FFCL), controlled experiments across 13 goodness functions, 5 activations, 6 datasets, and three continuous sweeps, each tracing a characteristic inverted-U, yield 89.0% on Fashion-MNIST and 98.2+-0.1% on MNIST (4x2000), a +32.6pp gain over SoS, with consistent improvements across all benchmarks (+72pp USPS, +52pp SVHN). The scale-invariant nature of burstiness makes it particularly robust to magnitude shifts across layers and datasets.

Recent works have revealed that infinitely-wide feed-forward or recurrent neural networks of any architecture correspond to Gaussian processes referred to as Neural Network Gaussian Processes (NNGPs). While these works have extended the class of neural networks converging to Gaussian processes significantly, however, there has been little focus on broadening the class of stochastic processes that such neural networks converge to. In this work, inspired by the scale mixture of Gaussian random variables, we propose the scale mixture of NNGPs for which we introduce a prior distribution on the scale of the last-layer parameters. We show that simply introducing a scale prior on the last-layer parameters can turn infinitely-wide neural networks of any architecture into a richer class of stochastic processes. With certain scale priors, we obtain heavy-tailed stochastic processes, and in the case of inverse gamma priors, we recover Student's t processes. We further analyze the distributions of the neural networks initialized with our prior setting and trained with gradient descents and obtain similar results as for NNGPs. We present a practical posterior-inference algorithm for the scale mixture of NNGPs and empirically demonstrate its usefulness on regression and classification tasks. In particular, we show that in both tasks, the heavy-tailed stochastic processes obtained from our framework are robust to out-of-distribution data.

Image restoration problems are typically ill-posed in the sense that each degraded image can be restored in infinitely many valid ways. To accommodate this, many works generate a diverse set of outputs by attempting to randomly sample from the posterior distribution of natural images given the degraded input. Here we argue that this strategy is commonly of limited practical value because of the heavy tail of the posterior distribution. Consider for example inpainting a missing region of the sky in an image. Since there is a high probability that the missing region contains no object but clouds, any set of samples from the posterior would be entirely dominated by (practically identical) completions of sky. However, arguably, presenting users with only one clear sky completion, along with several alternative solutions such as airships, birds, and balloons, would better outline the set of possibilities. In this paper, we initiate the study of meaningfully diverse image restoration. We explore several post-processing approaches that can be combined with any diverse image restoration method to yield semantically meaningful diversity. Moreover, we propose a practical approach for allowing diffusion based image restoration methods to generate meaningfully diverse outputs, while incurring only negligent computational overhead. We conduct extensive user studies to analyze the proposed techniques, and find the strategy of reducing similarity between outputs to be significantly favorable over posterior sampling. Code and examples are available at https://noa-cohen.github.io/MeaningfulDiversityInIR.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) presents a promising approach for learning reinforced policies from offline datasets without the need for costly or unsafe interactions with the environment. However, datasets collected by humans in real-world environments are often noisy and may even be maliciously corrupted, which can significantly degrade the performance of offline RL. In this work, we first investigate the performance of current offline RL algorithms under comprehensive data corruption, including states, actions, rewards, and dynamics. Our extensive experiments reveal that implicit Q-learning (IQL) demonstrates remarkable resilience to data corruption among various offline RL algorithms. Furthermore, we conduct both empirical and theoretical analyses to understand IQL's robust performance, identifying its supervised policy learning scheme as the key factor. Despite its relative robustness, IQL still suffers from heavy-tail targets of Q functions under dynamics corruption. To tackle this challenge, we draw inspiration from robust statistics to employ the Huber loss to handle the heavy-tailedness and utilize quantile estimators to balance penalization for corrupted data and learning stability. By incorporating these simple yet effective modifications into IQL, we propose a more robust offline RL approach named Robust IQL (RIQL). Extensive experiments demonstrate that RIQL exhibits highly robust performance when subjected to diverse data corruption scenarios.

Building general-purpose graphical user interface (GUI) agents has become increasingly promising with the progress in vision language models. However, developing effective mobile GUI agents with reinforcement learning (RL) remains challenging due to the heavy-tailed distribution of task difficulty and the inefficiency of large-scale environment sampling. We present an online agentic reinforcement learning framework MobileRL to enhance GUI agents in mobile environments. Its core component is the Difficulty-ADAptive GRPO (ADAGRPO) algorithm. In ADAGRPO, we design difficulty-adaptive positive replay and failure curriculum filtering to adapt the model to different task difficulties. We introduce the shortest-path reward adjustment strategy to reshape rewards concerning the task length in multi-turn agentic tasks. Those strategies jointly stabilize RL training, improve sample efficiency, and generate strong performance across diverse mobile apps and tasks. We apply MOBILERL to two open models (Qwen2.5-VL-7B-Instruct and GLM-4.1V-9B-Base). The resultant MOBILERL-9B model achieves state-of-the-art results in terms of success rates on both AndroidWorld (80.2%) and AndroidLab (53.6%). The MOBILERL framework is open-sourced at: https://github.com/THUDM/MobileRL.

Self-supervised learning (SSL) has enabled the development of vision foundation models for Earth Observation (EO), demonstrating strong transferability across diverse remote sensing tasks. While prior work has focused on network architectures and training strategies, the role of dataset curation, especially in balancing and diversifying pre-training datasets, remains underexplored. In EO, this challenge is amplified by the redundancy and heavy-tailed distributions common in satellite imagery, which can lead to biased representations and inefficient training. In this work, we propose a dynamic dataset pruning strategy designed to improve SSL pre-training by maximizing dataset diversity and balance. Our method iteratively refines the training set without requiring a pre-existing feature extractor, making it well-suited for domains where curated datasets are limited or unavailable. We demonstrate our approach on the Sentinel-1 Wave Mode (WV) Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) archive, a challenging dataset dominated by ocean observations. We train models from scratch on the entire Sentinel-1 WV archive spanning 10 years. Across three downstream tasks, our results show that dynamic pruning improves both computational efficiency and representation quality, leading to stronger transferability. We also release the weights of Nereus-SAR-1, the first model in the Nereus family, a series of foundation models for ocean observation and analysis using SAR imagery, at github.com/galeio-research/nereus-sar-models/.

We present a SemiEmpirical Theory of Learning (SETOL) that explains the remarkable performance of State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) Neural Networks (NNs). We provide a formal explanation of the origin of the fundamental quantities in the phenomenological theory of Heavy-Tailed Self-Regularization (HTSR): the heavy-tailed power-law layer quality metrics, alpha and alpha-hat. In prior work, these metrics have been shown to predict trends in the test accuracies of pretrained SOTA NN models, importantly, without needing access to either testing or training data. Our SETOL uses techniques from statistical mechanics as well as advanced methods from random matrix theory and quantum chemistry. The derivation suggests new mathematical preconditions for ideal learning, including a new metric, ERG, which is equivalent to applying a single step of the Wilson Exact Renormalization Group. We test the assumptions and predictions of SETOL on a simple 3-layer multilayer perceptron (MLP), demonstrating excellent agreement with the key theoretical assumptions. For SOTA NN models, we show how to estimate the individual layer qualities of a trained NN by simply computing the empirical spectral density (ESD) of the layer weight matrices and plugging this ESD into our SETOL formulas. Notably, we examine the performance of the HTSR alpha and the SETOL ERG layer quality metrics, and find that they align remarkably well, both on our MLP and on SOTA NNs.

Air pollution remains a leading global health risk, exacerbated by rapid industrialization and urbanization, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality rates. In this paper, we introduce AirCast, a novel multi-variable air pollution forecasting model, by combining weather and air quality variables. AirCast employs a multi-task head architecture that simultaneously forecasts atmospheric conditions and pollutant concentrations, improving its understanding of how weather patterns affect air quality. Predicting extreme pollution events is challenging due to their rare occurrence in historic data, resulting in a heavy-tailed distribution of pollution levels. To address this, we propose a novel Frequency-weighted Mean Absolute Error (fMAE) loss, adapted from the class-balanced loss for regression tasks. Informed from domain knowledge, we investigate the selection of key variables known to influence pollution levels. Additionally, we align existing weather and chemical datasets across spatial and temporal dimensions. AirCast's integrated approach, combining multi-task learning, frequency weighted loss and domain informed variable selection, enables more accurate pollution forecasts. Our source code and models are made public here (https://github.com/vishalned/AirCast.git)

We show via a combination of mathematical arguments and empirical evidence that data distributions sampled from diffusion models satisfy a Concentration of Measure Property saying that any Lipschitz 1-dimensional projection of a random vector is not too far from its mean with high probability. This implies that such models are quite restrictive and gives an explanation for a fact previously observed in the literature that conventional diffusion models cannot capture "heavy-tailed" data (i.e. data x for which the norm |x|_2 does not possess a sub-Gaussian tail) well. We then proceed to train a generalized linear model using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on the diffusion-generated data for a multiclass classification task and observe empirically that a Gaussian universality result holds for the test error. In other words, the test error depends only on the first and second order statistics of the diffusion-generated data in the linear setting. Results of such forms are desirable because they allow one to assume the data itself is Gaussian for analyzing performance of the trained classifier. Finally, we note that current approaches to proving universality do not apply to this case as the covariance matrices of the data tend to have vanishing minimum singular values for the diffusion-generated data, while the current proofs assume that this is not the case (see Subsection 3.4 for more details). This leaves extending previous mathematical universality results as an intriguing open question.

Recent advances in foundation models have emphasized the need to align pre-trained models with specialized domains using small, curated datasets. Studies on these foundation models underscore the importance of low-data training and fine-tuning. This topic, well-known in natural language processing (NLP), has also gained increasing attention in the emerging field of scientific machine learning (SciML). To address the limitations of low-data training and fine-tuning, we draw inspiration from Heavy-Tailed Self-Regularization (HT-SR) theory, analyzing the shape of empirical spectral densities (ESDs) and revealing an imbalance in training quality across different model layers. To mitigate this issue, we adapt a recently proposed layer-wise learning rate scheduler, TempBalance, which effectively balances training quality across layers and enhances low-data training and fine-tuning for both NLP and SciML tasks. Notably, TempBalance demonstrates increasing performance gains as the amount of available tuning data decreases. Comparative analyses further highlight the effectiveness of TempBalance and its adaptability as an "add-on" method for improving model performance.

In the past several years, the last-iterate convergence of the Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) algorithm has triggered people's interest due to its good performance in practice but lack of theoretical understanding. For Lipschitz convex functions, different works have established the optimal O(log(1/delta)log T/T) or O(log(1/delta)/T) high-probability convergence rates for the final iterate, where T is the time horizon and delta is the failure probability. However, to prove these bounds, all the existing works are either limited to compact domains or require almost surely bounded noises. It is natural to ask whether the last iterate of SGD can still guarantee the optimal convergence rate but without these two restrictive assumptions. Besides this important question, there are still lots of theoretical problems lacking an answer. For example, compared with the last-iterate convergence of SGD for non-smooth problems, only few results for smooth optimization have yet been developed. Additionally, the existing results are all limited to a non-composite objective and the standard Euclidean norm. It still remains unclear whether the last-iterate convergence can be provably extended to wider composite optimization and non-Euclidean norms. In this work, to address the issues mentioned above, we revisit the last-iterate convergence of stochastic gradient methods and provide the first unified way to prove the convergence rates both in expectation and in high probability to accommodate general domains, composite objectives, non-Euclidean norms, Lipschitz conditions, smoothness, and (strong) convexity simultaneously. Additionally, we extend our analysis to obtain the last-iterate convergence under heavy-tailed noises.

Tabular data is one of the most commonly used types of data in machine learning. Despite recent advances in neural nets (NNs) for tabular data, there is still an active discussion on whether or not NNs generally outperform gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDTs) on tabular data, with several recent works arguing either that GBDTs consistently outperform NNs on tabular data, or vice versa. In this work, we take a step back and question the importance of this debate. To this end, we conduct the largest tabular data analysis to date, comparing 19 algorithms across 176 datasets, and we find that the 'NN vs. GBDT' debate is overemphasized: for a surprisingly high number of datasets, either the performance difference between GBDTs and NNs is negligible, or light hyperparameter tuning on a GBDT is more important than choosing between NNs and GBDTs. A remarkable exception is the recently-proposed prior-data fitted network, TabPFN: although it is effectively limited to training sets of size 3000, we find that it outperforms all other algorithms on average, even when randomly sampling 3000 training datapoints. Next, we analyze dozens of metafeatures to determine what properties of a dataset make NNs or GBDTs better-suited to perform well. For example, we find that GBDTs are much better than NNs at handling skewed or heavy-tailed feature distributions and other forms of dataset irregularities. Our insights act as a guide for practitioners to determine which techniques may work best on their dataset. Finally, with the goal of accelerating tabular data research, we release the TabZilla Benchmark Suite: a collection of the 36 'hardest' of the datasets we study. Our benchmark suite, codebase, and all raw results are available at https://github.com/naszilla/tabzilla.

In the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, a randomized probability matching policy called Thompson sampling (TS) has shown excellent performance in various reward models. In addition to the empirical performance, TS has been shown to achieve asymptotic problem-dependent lower bounds in several models. However, its optimality has been mainly addressed under light-tailed or one-parameter models that belong to exponential families. In this paper, we consider the optimality of TS for the Pareto model that has a heavy tail and is parameterized by two unknown parameters. Specifically, we discuss the optimality of TS with probability matching priors that include the Jeffreys prior and the reference priors. We first prove that TS with certain probability matching priors can achieve the optimal regret bound. Then, we show the suboptimality of TS with other priors, including the Jeffreys and the reference priors. Nevertheless, we find that TS with the Jeffreys and reference priors can achieve the asymptotic lower bound if one uses a truncation procedure. These results suggest carefully choosing noninformative priors to avoid suboptimality and show the effectiveness of truncation procedures in TS-based policies.

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) has emerged as the de facto Reinforcement Learning (RL) objective driving recent advancements in Multimodal Large Language Models. However, extending this success to open-source multimodal generalist models remains heavily constrained by two primary challenges: the extreme variance in reward topologies across diverse visual tasks, and the inherent difficulty of balancing fine-grained perception with multi-step reasoning capabilities. To address these issues, we introduce Gaussian GRPO (G^2RPO), a novel RL training objective that replaces standard linear scaling with non-linear distributional matching. By mathematically forcing the advantage distribution of any given task to strictly converge to a standard normal distribution, N(0,1), G^2RPO theoretically ensures inter-task gradient equity, mitigates vulnerabilities to heavy-tail outliers, and offers symmetric update for positive and negative rewards. Leveraging the enhanced training stability provided by G^2RPO, we introduce two task-level shaping mechanisms to seamlessly balance perception and reasoning. First, response length shaping dynamically elicits extended reasoning chains for complex queries while enforce direct outputs to bolster visual grounding. Second, entropy shaping tightly bounds the model's exploration zone, effectively preventing both entropy collapse and entropy explosion. Integrating these methodologies, we present OpenVLThinkerV2, a highly robust, general-purpose multimodal model. Extensive evaluations across 18 diverse benchmarks demonstrate its superior performance over strong open-source and leading proprietary frontier models.

Learning-based 3D reconstruction models, represented by Visual Geometry Grounded Transformers (VGGTs), have made remarkable progress with the use of large-scale transformers. Their prohibitive computational and memory costs severely hinder real-world deployment. Post-Training Quantization (PTQ) has become a common practice for compressing and accelerating models. However, we empirically observe that PTQ faces unique obstacles when compressing billion-scale VGGTs: the data-independent special tokens induce heavy-tailed activation distributions, while the multi-view nature of 3D data makes calibration sample selection highly unstable. This paper proposes the first Quantization framework for VGGTs, namely QuantVGGT. This mainly relies on two technical contributions: First, we introduce Dual-Smoothed Fine-Grained Quantization, which integrates pre-global Hadamard rotation and post-local channel smoothing to mitigate heavy-tailed distributions and inter-channel variance robustly. Second, we design Noise-Filtered Diverse Sampling, which filters outliers via deep-layer statistics and constructs frame-aware diverse calibration clusters to ensure stable quantization ranges. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that QuantVGGT achieves the state-of-the-art results across different benchmarks and bit-width, surpassing the previous state-of-the-art generic quantization method with a great margin. We highlight that our 4-bit QuantVGGT can deliver a 3.7times memory reduction and 2.5times acceleration in real-hardware inference, while maintaining reconstruction accuracy above 98\% of its full-precision counterpart. This demonstrates the vast advantages and practicality of QuantVGGT in resource-constrained scenarios. Our code is released in https://github.com/wlfeng0509/QuantVGGT.

Agent skills extend large language model (LLM) agents with reusable, program-like modules that define triggering conditions, procedural logic, and tool interactions. As these skills proliferate in public marketplaces, it is unclear what types are available, how users adopt them, and what risks they pose. To answer these questions, we conduct a large-scale, data-driven analysis of 40,285 publicly listed skills from a major marketplace. Our results show that skill publication tends to occur in short bursts that track shifts in community attention. We also find that skill content is highly concentrated in software engineering workflows, while information retrieval and content creation account for a substantial share of adoption. Beyond content trends, we uncover a pronounced supply-demand imbalance across categories, and we show that most skills remain within typical prompt budgets despite a heavy-tailed length distribution. Finally, we observe strong ecosystem homogeneity, with widespread intent-level redundancy, and we identify non-trivial safety risks, including skills that enable state-changing or system-level actions. Overall, our findings provide a quantitative snapshot of agent skills as an emerging infrastructure layer for agents and inform future work on skill reuse, standardization, and safety-aware design.

We test whether artificial intelligence architectural evolution obeys the same statistical laws as biological evolution. Compiling 935 ablation experiments from 161 publications, we show that the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) of architectural modifications follows a heavy-tailed Student's t-distribution with proportions (68% deleterious, 19% neutral, 13% beneficial for major ablations, n=568) that place AI between compact viral genomes and simple eukaryotes. The DFE shape matches D. melanogaster (normalized KS=0.07) and S. cerevisiae (KS=0.09); the elevated beneficial fraction (13% vs. 1-6% in biology) quantifies the advantage of directed over blind search while preserving the distributional form. Architectural origination follows logistic dynamics (R^2=0.994) with punctuated equilibria and adaptive radiation into domain niches. Fourteen architectural traits were independently invented 3-5 times, paralleling biological convergences. These results demonstrate that the statistical structure of evolution is substrate-independent, determined by fitness landscape topology rather than the mechanism of selection.

Asynchronous reinforcement learning has become increasingly central to scaling LLM post-training, delivering major throughput gains by decoupling rollout generation from policy updates. However, widely used policy-gradient objectives such as REINFORCE and GRPO suffer under high asynchrony: stale rollouts produce heavy-tailed importance weights, so a small number of trajectories dominate updates and the policy-gradient estimator becomes markedly higher variance. Through systematic analysis on math, reasoning, and tool-use benchmarks, we find that this increasing variance is reliably predicted by collapsing effective sample size (ESS), which prior stabilization methods largely fail to address. Motivated by this diagnosis, we introduce Variance Controlled Policy Optimization (VCPO), a method that (i) dynamically scales the learning rate with ESS to dampen unreliable updates and (ii) applies a closed-form minimum-variance baseline for off-policy settings, without a critic model and adding minimal overhead. Empirically, across math and general reasoning benchmarks, this enables robustly stable asynchronous training compared to previous stabilization and algorithmic methods, even in highly off-policy regimes (128 steps off-policy). In a long-horizon, tool-use task, VCPO matches synchronous performance while delivering a 2.5times speedup in training time. Code is available at: https://github.com/mit-han-lab/vcpo

Dimensionality reduction is critical for deploying dense retrieval systems at scale, yet mainstream post-hoc methods face a fundamental trade-off: principal component analysis (PCA) preserves dominant variance but underutilizes representational capacity, while whitening enforces isotropy at the cost of amplifying noise in the heavy-tailed eigenspectrum of retrieval embeddings. Intermediate spectral scaling methods unify these extremes by reweighting dimensions with a power coefficient γ, but treat γ as a fixed hyperparameter that requires task-specific tuning. We show that the optimal scaling strength γ is not a global constant: it varies systematically with target dimensionality k and is governed by the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the retained subspace. Based on this insight, we propose Spectral Tempering (SpecTemp), a learning-free method that derives an adaptive γ(k) directly from the corpus eigenspectrum using local SNR analysis and knee-point normalization, requiring no labeled data or validation-based search. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Spectral Tempering consistently achieves near-oracle performance relative to grid-searched γ^*(k) while remaining fully learning-free and model-agnostic. Our code is publicly available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/SpecTemp-0D37.

Training Large Language Models (LLMs) at ultra-low precision is critically impeded by instability rooted in the conflict between discrete quantization constraints and the intrinsic heavy-tailed spectral nature of linguistic data. By formalizing the connection between Zipfian statistics and random matrix theory, we prove that the power-law decay in the singular value spectra of embeddings is a fundamental requisite for semantic encoding. We derive theoretical bounds showing that uniform quantization introduces a noise floor that disproportionately truncates this spectral tail, which induces spectral flattening and a strictly provable increase in the stable rank of representations. Empirical validation across diverse architectures including GPT-2 and TinyLlama corroborates that this geometric degradation precipitates representational collapse. This work not only quantifies the spectral sensitivity of LLMs but also establishes spectral fidelity as a necessary condition for stable low-bit optimization.

Financial time series forecasting is particularly challenging for transformer-based time series foundation models (TSFMs) due to non-stationarity, heavy-tailed distributions, and high-frequency noise present in data. Low-rank adaptation (LoRA) has become a popular parameter-efficient method for adapting pre-trained TSFMs to downstream data domains. However, it still underperforms in financial data, as it preserves the network architecture and training objective of TSFMs rather than complementing the foundation model. To further enhance TSFMs, we propose a novel refinement module, RefineBridge, built upon a tractable Schrödinger Bridge (SB) generative framework. Given the forecasts of TSFM as generative prior and the observed ground truths as targets, RefineBridge learns context-conditioned stochastic transport maps to improve TSFM predictions, iteratively approaching the ground-truth target from even a low-quality prior. Simulations on multiple financial benchmarks demonstrate that RefineBridge consistently improves the performance of state-of-the-art TSFMs across different prediction horizons.

Generative modeling of high-frequency limit order book (LOB) dynamics is a critical yet unsolved challenge in quantitative finance, essential for robust market simulation and strategy backtesting. Existing approaches are often constrained by simplifying stochastic assumptions or, in the case of modern deep learning models like Transformers, rely on tokenization schemes that affect the high-precision, numerical nature of financial data through discretization and binning. To address these limitations, we introduce ByteGen, a novel generative model that operates directly on the raw byte streams of LOB events. Our approach treats the problem as an autoregressive next-byte prediction task, for which we design a compact and efficient 32-byte packed binary format to represent market messages without information loss. The core novelty of our work is the complete elimination of feature engineering and tokenization, enabling the model to learn market dynamics from its most fundamental representation. We achieve this by adapting the H-Net architecture, a hybrid Mamba-Transformer model that uses a dynamic chunking mechanism to discover the inherent structure of market messages without predefined rules. Our primary contributions are: 1) the first end-to-end, byte-level framework for LOB modeling; 2) an efficient packed data representation; and 3) a comprehensive evaluation on high-frequency data. Trained on over 34 million events from CME Bitcoin futures, ByteGen successfully reproduces key stylized facts of financial markets, generating realistic price distributions, heavy-tailed returns, and bursty event timing. Our findings demonstrate that learning directly from byte space is a promising and highly flexible paradigm for modeling complex financial systems, achieving competitive performance on standard market quality metrics without the biases of tokenization.

Achieving balanced alignment of large language models (LLMs) in terms of Helpfulness, Honesty, and Harmlessness (3H optimization) constitutes a cornerstone of responsible AI, with existing methods like data mixture strategies facing limitations including reliance on expert knowledge and conflicting optimization signals. While model merging offers a promising alternative by integrating specialized models, its potential for 3H optimization remains underexplored. This paper establishes the first comprehensive benchmark for model merging in 3H-aligned LLMs, systematically evaluating 15 methods (12 training-free merging and 3 data mixture techniques) across 10 datasets associated with 5 annotation dimensions, 2 LLM families, and 2 training paradigms. Our analysis reveals three pivotal insights: (i) previously overlooked collaborative/conflicting relationships among 3H dimensions, (ii) the consistent superiority of model merging over data mixture approaches in balancing alignment trade-offs, and (iii) the critical role of parameter-level conflict resolution through redundant component pruning and outlier mitigation. Building on these findings, we propose R-TSVM, a Reweighting-enhanced Task Singular Vector Merging method that incorporates outlier-aware parameter weighting and sparsity-adaptive rank selection strategies adapted to the heavy-tailed parameter distribution and sparsity for LLMs, further improving LLM alignment across multiple evaluations. We release our trained models for further exploration.

Large multimodal models (LMMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities in understanding images, videos, and audio beyond text. However, efficiently serving LMMs in production environments poses significant challenges due to their complex architectures and heterogeneous characteristics across their multi-stage inference pipelines. We present the first comprehensive systems analysis of two prominent LMM architectures, decoder-only and cross-attention, across six representative open-source models, revealing key systems design implications. We also present an in-depth analysis of production LMM inference traces, uncovering unique workload characteristics, including variable, heavy-tailed request distributions and bursty traffic patterns. Based on these insights, we propose ModServe, a modular LMM serving system that decouples stages for independent optimization and adaptive scaling. ModServe dynamically reconfigures stages and handles bursty traffic with modality-aware scheduling and autoscaling to meet tail latency SLOs while minimizing costs. ModServe achieves 3.3-5.5x higher throughput (leading to 25-41.3% cost saving) while meeting SLOs on a 128-GPU cluster with production traces.

Mamba is an efficient sequence model that rivals Transformers and demonstrates significant potential as a foundational architecture for various tasks. Quantization is commonly used in neural networks to reduce model size and computational latency. However, applying quantization to Mamba remains underexplored, and existing quantization methods, which have been effective for CNN and Transformer models, appear inadequate for Mamba models (e.g., Quarot suffers a 21% accuracy drop on Vim-T^dagger even under W8A8). We have pioneered the exploration of this issue and identified several key challenges. First, significant outliers are present in gate projections, output projections, and matrix multiplications. Second, Mamba's unique parallel scan further amplifies these outliers, leading to uneven and heavy-tailed data distributions. Third, even with the application of the Hadamard transform, the variance across channels in weights and activations still remains inconsistent. To these ends, we propose MambaQuant, a post-training quantization (PTQ) framework consisting of: 1) Karhunen-Loeve Transformation (KLT) enhanced rotation, rendering the rotation matrix adaptable to diverse channel distributions. 2) Smooth-Fused rotation, which equalizes channel variances and can merge additional parameters into model weights. Experiments show that MambaQuant can quantize both weights and activations into 8-bit with less than 1% accuracy loss for Mamba-based vision and language tasks. To the best of our knowledge, MambaQuant is the first comprehensive PTQ design for the Mamba family, paving the way for further advancements in its application.

This paper studies Kernel density estimation for a high-dimensional distribution rho(x). Traditional approaches have focused on the limit of large number of data points n and fixed dimension d. We analyze instead the regime where both the number n of data points y_i and their dimensionality d grow with a fixed ratio alpha=(log n)/d. Our study reveals three distinct statistical regimes for the kernel-based estimate of the density hat rho_h^{D}(x)=1{n h^d}sum_{i=1}^n Kleft(x-y_i{h}right), depending on the bandwidth h: a classical regime for large bandwidth where the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) holds, which is akin to the one found in traditional approaches. Below a certain value of the bandwidth, h_{CLT}(alpha), we find that the CLT breaks down. The statistics of hat rho_h^{D}(x) for a fixed x drawn from rho(x) is given by a heavy-tailed distribution (an alpha-stable distribution). In particular below a value h_G(alpha), we find that hat rho_h^{D}(x) is governed by extreme value statistics: only a few points in the database matter and give the dominant contribution to the density estimator. We provide a detailed analysis for high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian data. We show that the optimal bandwidth threshold based on Kullback-Leibler divergence lies in the new statistical regime identified in this paper. Our findings reveal limitations of classical approaches, show the relevance of these new statistical regimes, and offer new insights for Kernel density estimation in high-dimensional settings.

There are several applications of stochastic optimization where one can benefit from a robust estimate of the gradient. For example, domains such as distributed learning with corrupted nodes, the presence of large outliers in the training data, learning under privacy constraints, or even heavy-tailed noise due to the dynamics of the algorithm itself. Here we study SGD with robust gradient estimators based on estimating the median. We first consider computing the median gradient across samples, and show that the resulting method can converge even under heavy-tailed, state-dependent noise. We then derive iterative methods based on the stochastic proximal point method for computing the geometric median and generalizations thereof. Finally we propose an algorithm estimating the median gradient across iterations, and find that several well known methods - in particular different forms of clipping - are particular cases of this framework.

Learning to denoise has emerged as a prominent paradigm to design state-of-the-art deep generative models for natural images. How to use it to model the distributions of both continuous real-valued data and categorical data has been well studied in recently proposed diffusion models. However, it is found in this paper to have limited ability in modeling some other types of data, such as count and non-negative continuous data, that are often highly sparse, skewed, heavy-tailed, and/or overdispersed. To this end, we propose learning to jump as a general recipe for generative modeling of various types of data. Using a forward count thinning process to construct learning objectives to train a deep neural network, it employs a reverse count thickening process to iteratively refine its generation through that network. We demonstrate when learning to jump is expected to perform comparably to learning to denoise, and when it is expected to perform better. For example, learning to jump is recommended when the training data is non-negative and exhibits strong sparsity, skewness, heavy-tailedness, and/or heterogeneity.

Interactions between humans are diverse and context-dependent, but previous works have treated them as categorical, disregarding the heavy tail of possible interactions. We propose a new paradigm of learning human-human interactions as free text from a single still image, allowing for flexibility in modeling the unlimited space of situations and relationships between people. To overcome the absence of data labelled specifically for this task, we use knowledge distillation applied to synthetic caption data produced by a large language model without explicit supervision. We show that the pseudo-labels produced by this procedure can be used to train a captioning model to effectively understand human-human interactions in images, as measured by a variety of metrics that measure textual and semantic faithfulness and factual groundedness of our predictions. We further show that our approach outperforms SOTA image captioning and situation recognition models on this task. We will release our code and pseudo-labels along with Waldo and Wenda, a manually-curated test set for still image human-human interaction understanding.

While it has long been empirically observed that adversarial robustness may be at odds with standard accuracy and may have further disparate impacts on different classes, it remains an open question to what extent such observations hold and how the class imbalance plays a role within. In this paper, we attempt to understand this question of accuracy disparity by taking a closer look at linear classifiers under a Gaussian mixture model. We decompose the impact of adversarial robustness into two parts: an inherent effect that will degrade the standard accuracy on all classes due to the robustness constraint, and the other caused by the class imbalance ratio, which will increase the accuracy disparity compared to standard training. Furthermore, we also show that such effects extend beyond the Gaussian mixture model, by generalizing our data model to the general family of stable distributions. More specifically, we demonstrate that while the constraint of adversarial robustness consistently degrades the standard accuracy in the balanced class setting, the class imbalance ratio plays a fundamentally different role in accuracy disparity compared to the Gaussian case, due to the heavy tail of the stable distribution. We additionally perform experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets to corroborate our theoretical findings. Our empirical results also suggest that the implications may extend to nonlinear models over real-world datasets. Our code is publicly available on GitHub at https://github.com/Accuracy-Disparity/AT-on-AD.

Most prior results on differentially private stochastic gradient descent (DP-SGD) are derived under the simplistic assumption of uniform Lipschitzness, i.e., the per-sample gradients are uniformly bounded. We generalize uniform Lipschitzness by assuming that the per-sample gradients have sample-dependent upper bounds, i.e., per-sample Lipschitz constants, which themselves may be unbounded. We provide principled guidance on choosing the clip norm in DP-SGD for convex over-parameterized settings satisfying our general version of Lipschitzness when the per-sample Lipschitz constants are bounded; specifically, we recommend tuning the clip norm only till values up to the minimum per-sample Lipschitz constant. This finds application in the private training of a softmax layer on top of a deep network pre-trained on public data. We verify the efficacy of our recommendation via experiments on 8 datasets. Furthermore, we provide new convergence results for DP-SGD on convex and nonconvex functions when the Lipschitz constants are unbounded but have bounded moments, i.e., they are heavy-tailed.

Significant work has been recently dedicated to the stochastic delayed bandit setting because of its relevance in applications. The applicability of existing algorithms is however restricted by the fact that strong assumptions are often made on the delay distributions, such as full observability, restrictive shape constraints, or uniformity over arms. In this work, we weaken them significantly and only assume that there is a bound on the tail of the delay. In particular, we cover the important case where the delay distributions vary across arms, and the case where the delays are heavy-tailed. Addressing these difficulties, we propose a simple but efficient UCB-based algorithm called the PatientBandits. We provide both problems-dependent and problems-independent bounds on the regret as well as performance lower bounds.

Automatic snake species recognition is important because it has vast potential to help lower deaths and disabilities caused by snakebites. We introduce our solution in SnakeCLEF 2022 for fine-grained snake species recognition on a heavy long-tailed class distribution. First, a network architecture is designed to extract and fuse features from multiple modalities, i.e. photograph from visual modality and geographic locality information from language modality. Then, logit adjustment based methods are studied to relieve the impact caused by the severe class imbalance. Next, a combination of supervised and self-supervised learning method is proposed to make full use of the dataset, including both labeled training data and unlabeled testing data. Finally, post processing strategies, such as multi-scale and multi-crop test-time-augmentation, location filtering and model ensemble, are employed for better performance. With an ensemble of several different models, a private score 82.65%, ranking the 3rd, is achieved on the final leaderboard.

Long-tailed classification is challenging due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities. While existing methods often focus on overall accuracy or accuracy for tail classes, they overlook a critical aspect: certain types of errors can carry greater risks than others in real-world long-tailed problems. For example, misclassifying patients (a tail class) as healthy individuals (a head class) entails far more serious consequences than the reverse scenario. To address this critical issue, we introduce Making Reliable and Flexible Decisions in Long-tailed Classification (RF-DLC), a novel framework aimed at reliable predictions in long-tailed problems. Leveraging Bayesian Decision Theory, we introduce an integrated gain to seamlessly combine long-tailed data distributions and the decision-making procedure. We further propose an efficient variational optimization strategy for the decision risk objective. Our method adapts readily to diverse utility matrices, which can be designed for specific tasks, ensuring its flexibility for different problem settings. In empirical evaluation, we design a new metric, False Head Rate, to quantify tail-sensitivity risk, along with comprehensive experiments on multiple real-world tasks, including large-scale image classification and uncertainty quantification, to demonstrate the reliability and flexibility of our method.

Deep long-tailed learning, one of the most challenging problems in visual recognition, aims to train well-performing deep models from a large number of images that follow a long-tailed class distribution. In the last decade, deep learning has emerged as a powerful recognition model for learning high-quality image representations and has led to remarkable breakthroughs in generic visual recognition. However, long-tailed class imbalance, a common problem in practical visual recognition tasks, often limits the practicality of deep network based recognition models in real-world applications, since they can be easily biased towards dominant classes and perform poorly on tail classes. To address this problem, a large number of studies have been conducted in recent years, making promising progress in the field of deep long-tailed learning. Considering the rapid evolution of this field, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive survey on recent advances in deep long-tailed learning. To be specific, we group existing deep long-tailed learning studies into three main categories (i.e., class re-balancing, information augmentation and module improvement), and review these methods following this taxonomy in detail. Afterward, we empirically analyze several state-of-the-art methods by evaluating to what extent they address the issue of class imbalance via a newly proposed evaluation metric, i.e., relative accuracy. We conclude the survey by highlighting important applications of deep long-tailed learning and identifying several promising directions for future research.

Real-world data tends to follow a long-tailed distribution, where the class imbalance results in dominance of the head classes during training. In this paper, we propose a frustratingly simple but effective step-wise learning framework to gradually enhance the capability of the model in detecting all categories of long-tailed datasets. Specifically, we build smooth-tail data where the long-tailed distribution of categories decays smoothly to correct the bias towards head classes. We pre-train a model on the whole long-tailed data to preserve discriminability between all categories. We then fine-tune the class-agnostic modules of the pre-trained model on the head class dominant replay data to get a head class expert model with improved decision boundaries from all categories. Finally, we train a unified model on the tail class dominant replay data while transferring knowledge from the head class expert model to ensure accurate detection of all categories. Extensive experiments on long-tailed datasets LVIS v0.5 and LVIS v1.0 demonstrate the superior performance of our method, where we can improve the AP with ResNet-50 backbone from 27.0% to 30.3% AP, and especially for the rare categories from 15.5% to 24.9% AP. Our best model using ResNet-101 backbone can achieve 30.7% AP, which suppresses all existing detectors using the same backbone.

Deep neural networks have made huge progress in the last few decades. However, as the real-world data often exhibits a long-tailed distribution, vanilla deep models tend to be heavily biased toward the majority classes. To address this problem, state-of-the-art methods usually adopt a mixture of experts (MoE) to focus on different parts of the long-tailed distribution. Experts in these methods are with the same model depth, which neglects the fact that different classes may have different preferences to be fit by models with different depths. To this end, we propose a novel MoE-based method called Self-Heterogeneous Integration with Knowledge Excavation (SHIKE). We first propose Depth-wise Knowledge Fusion (DKF) to fuse features between different shallow parts and the deep part in one network for each expert, which makes experts more diverse in terms of representation. Based on DKF, we further propose Dynamic Knowledge Transfer (DKT) to reduce the influence of the hardest negative class that has a non-negligible impact on the tail classes in our MoE framework. As a result, the classification accuracy of long-tailed data can be significantly improved, especially for the tail classes. SHIKE achieves the state-of-the-art performance of 56.3%, 60.3%, 75.4%, and 41.9% on CIFAR100-LT (IF100), ImageNet-LT, iNaturalist 2018, and Places-LT, respectively.

Excellent tail performance is crucial for modern machine learning tasks, such as algorithmic fairness, class imbalance, and risk-sensitive decision making, as it ensures the effective handling of challenging samples within a dataset. Tail performance is also a vital determinant of success for personalized recommender systems to reduce the risk of losing users with low satisfaction. This study introduces a "safe" collaborative filtering method that prioritizes recommendation quality for less-satisfied users rather than focusing on the average performance. Our approach minimizes the conditional value at risk (CVaR), which represents the average risk over the tails of users' loss. To overcome computational challenges for web-scale recommender systems, we develop a robust yet practical algorithm that extends the most scalable method, implicit alternating least squares (iALS). Empirical evaluation on real-world datasets demonstrates the excellent tail performance of our approach while maintaining competitive computational efficiency.

Long-tailed classification poses a challenge due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities and tail-sensitivity risks with asymmetric misprediction costs. Recent attempts have used re-balancing loss and ensemble methods, but they are largely heuristic and depend heavily on empirical results, lacking theoretical explanation. Furthermore, existing methods overlook the decision loss, which characterizes different costs associated with tailed classes. This paper presents a general and principled framework from a Bayesian-decision-theory perspective, which unifies existing techniques including re-balancing and ensemble methods, and provides theoretical justifications for their effectiveness. From this perspective, we derive a novel objective based on the integrated risk and a Bayesian deep-ensemble approach to improve the accuracy of all classes, especially the "tail". Besides, our framework allows for task-adaptive decision loss which provides provably optimal decisions in varying task scenarios, along with the capability to quantify uncertainty. Finally, We conduct comprehensive experiments, including standard classification, tail-sensitive classification with a new False Head Rate metric, calibration, and ablation studies. Our framework significantly improves the current SOTA even on large-scale real-world datasets like ImageNet.

Classification on long-tailed distributed data is a challenging problem, which suffers from serious class-imbalance and accordingly unpromising performance especially on tail classes. Recently, the ensembling based methods achieve the state-of-the-art performance and show great potential. However, there are two limitations for current methods. First, their predictions are not trustworthy for failure-sensitive applications. This is especially harmful for the tail classes where the wrong predictions is basically frequent. Second, they assign unified numbers of experts to all samples, which is redundant for easy samples with excessive computational cost. To address these issues, we propose a Trustworthy Long-tailed Classification (TLC) method to jointly conduct classification and uncertainty estimation to identify hard samples in a multi-expert framework. Our TLC obtains the evidence-based uncertainty (EvU) and evidence for each expert, and then combines these uncertainties and evidences under the Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory (DST). Moreover, we propose a dynamic expert engagement to reduce the number of engaged experts for easy samples and achieve efficiency while maintaining promising performances. Finally, we conduct comprehensive experiments on the tasks of classification, tail detection, OOD detection and failure prediction. The experimental results show that the proposed TLC outperforms existing methods and is trustworthy with reliable uncertainty.

The Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework has garnered attention in recent econometric literature, yet current approaches implicitly assume a constant Pareto exponent. We introduce novel and robust econometrics to estimate the tails of GaR based on a rigorous theoretical framework and establish validity and effectiveness. Simulations demonstrate consistent outperformance relative to existing alternatives in terms of predictive accuracy. We perform a long-term GaR analysis that provides accurate and insightful predictions, effectively capturing financial anomalies better than current methods.

Natural data are often long-tail distributed over semantic classes. Existing recognition methods tackle this imbalanced classification by placing more emphasis on the tail data, through class re-balancing/re-weighting or ensembling over different data groups, resulting in increased tail accuracies but reduced head accuracies. We take a dynamic view of the training data and provide a principled model bias and variance analysis as the training data fluctuates: Existing long-tail classifiers invariably increase the model variance and the head-tail model bias gap remains large, due to more and larger confusion with hard negatives for the tail. We propose a new long-tailed classifier called RoutIng Diverse Experts (RIDE). It reduces the model variance with multiple experts, reduces the model bias with a distribution-aware diversity loss, reduces the computational cost with a dynamic expert routing module. RIDE outperforms the state-of-the-art by 5% to 7% on CIFAR100-LT, ImageNet-LT and iNaturalist 2018 benchmarks. It is also a universal framework that is applicable to various backbone networks, long-tailed algorithms, and training mechanisms for consistent performance gains. Our code is available at: https://github.com/frank-xwang/RIDE-LongTailRecognition.