Daily Papers

Large Language Models (LLMs) that can continually improve beyond their training budgets are able to solve increasingly difficult problems by adapting at test time, a property we refer to as extrapolation. However, standard reinforcement learning (RL) operates over fixed problem distributions and training budgets, which limits extrapolation amidst distribution shift at test time. To address this, we introduce RC, an iterative decoding algorithm that replaces standard autoregressive decoding during both training and inference. RC exploits an asymmetry between the response generation and summarization capabilities of LLMs to construct reasoning chains that consistently improve across iterations. Models trained to use RC can extrapolate and continually improve over reasoning horizons more than an order of magnitude longer than those seen during training. Empirically, training a 4B model with RC using a 16k-token training budget improves performance on HMMT 2025 from 40% to nearly 70% with 0.5m tokens at test time, outperforming both comparably sized models and many larger reasoning LLMs. Finally, we also show that models trained with RC can more effectively leverage existing scaffolds to further scale test-time performance, due to the improved summary-conditioned generation abilities learned through training.

Multimodal deep search agents have shown great potential in solving complex tasks by iteratively collecting textual and visual evidence. However, managing the heterogeneous information and high token costs associated with multimodal inputs over long horizons remains a critical challenge, as existing methods often suffer from context explosion or the loss of crucial visual signals. To address this, we propose a novel Long-horizon MultiModal deep search framework, named LMM-Searcher, centered on a file-based visual representation mechanism. By offloading visual assets to an external file system and mapping them to lightweight textual identifiers (UIDs), our approach mitigates context overhead while preserving multimodal information for future access. We equip the agent with a tailored fetch-image tool, enabling a progressive, on-demand visual loading strategy for active perception. Furthermore, we introduce a data synthesis pipeline designed to generate queries requiring complex cross-modal multi-hop reasoning. Using this pipeline, we distill 12K high-quality trajectories to fine-tune Qwen3-VL-Thinking-30A3B into a specialized multimodal deep search agent. Extensive experiments across four benchmarks demonstrate that our method successfully scales to 100-turn search horizons, achieving state-of-the-art performance among open-source models on challenging long-horizon benchmarks like MM-BrowseComp and MMSearch-Plus, while also exhibiting strong generalizability across different base models. Our code will be released in https://github.com/RUCAIBox/LMM-Searcher.

Recent works on context and memory benchmarking have primarily focused on conversational instances but the need for evaluating memory in dynamic enterprise environments is crucial for its effective application. We introduce MEMTRACK, a benchmark designed to evaluate long-term memory and state tracking in multi-platform agent environments. MEMTRACK models realistic organizational workflows by integrating asynchronous events across multiple communication and productivity platforms such as Slack, Linear and Git. Each benchmark instance provides a chronologically platform-interleaved timeline, with noisy, conflicting, cross-referring information as well as potential codebase/file-system comprehension and exploration. Consequently, our benchmark tests memory capabilities such as acquistion, selection and conflict resolution. We curate the MEMTRACK dataset through both manual expert driven design and scalable agent based synthesis, generating ecologically valid scenarios grounded in real world software development processes. We introduce pertinent metrics for Correctness, Efficiency, and Redundancy that capture the effectiveness of memory mechanisms beyond simple QA performance. Experiments across SoTA LLMs and memory backends reveal challenges in utilizing memory across long horizons, handling cross-platform dependencies, and resolving contradictions. Notably, the best performing GPT-5 model only achieves a 60\% Correctness score on MEMTRACK. This work provides an extensible framework for advancing evaluation research for memory-augmented agents, beyond existing focus on conversational setups, and sets the stage for multi-agent, multi-platform memory benchmarking in complex organizational settings

Real-world robotic agents must act under partial observability and long horizons, where key cues may appear long before they affect decision making. However, most modern approaches rely solely on instantaneous information, without incorporating insights from the past. Standard recurrent or transformer models struggle with retaining and leveraging long-term dependencies: context windows truncate history, while naive memory extensions fail under scale and sparsity. We propose ELMUR (External Layer Memory with Update/Rewrite), a transformer architecture with structured external memory. Each layer maintains memory embeddings, interacts with them via bidirectional cross-attention, and updates them through an Least Recently Used (LRU) memory module using replacement or convex blending. ELMUR extends effective horizons up to 100,000 times beyond the attention window and achieves a 100% success rate on a synthetic T-Maze task with corridors up to one million steps. In POPGym, it outperforms baselines on more than half of the tasks. On MIKASA-Robo sparse-reward manipulation tasks with visual observations, it nearly doubles the performance of strong baselines. These results demonstrate that structured, layer-local external memory offers a simple and scalable approach to decision making under partial observability.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) and Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have enabled agentic search systems that interleave multi-step reasoning with external tool use. However, existing frameworks largely rely on unstructured natural-language reasoning and accumulate raw intermediate traces in the context, which often leads to unstable reasoning trajectories, context overflow, and degraded performance on complex multi-hop queries. In this study, we introduce Laser, a general framework for stabilizing and scaling agentic search. Laser defines a symbolic action protocol that organizes agent behaviors into three spaces: planning, task-solving, and retrospection. Each action is specified with explicit semantics and a deterministic execution format, enabling structured and logical reasoning processes and reliable action parsing. This design makes intermediate decisions interpretable and traceable, enhancing explicit retrospection and fine-grained control over reasoning trajectories. In coordination with parsable actions, Laser further maintains a compact context register that stores only essential states of the reasoning process, allowing the agent to reason over long horizons without uncontrolled context expansion. Experiments on Qwen2.5/3-series models across challenging multi-hop QA datasets show that Laser consistently outperforms existing agentic search baselines under both prompting-only and fine-tuning settings, demonstrating that Laser provides a principled and effective foundation for robust, scalable agentic search.

Streaming video generation, as one fundamental component in interactive world models and neural game engines, aims to generate high-quality, low-latency, and temporally coherent long video streams. However, most existing work suffers from severe error accumulation that often significantly degrades the generated stream videos over long horizons. We design Rolling Forcing, a novel video generation technique that enables streaming long videos with minimal error accumulation. Rolling Forcing comes with three novel designs. First, instead of iteratively sampling individual frames, which accelerates error propagation, we design a joint denoising scheme that simultaneously denoises multiple frames with progressively increasing noise levels. This design relaxes the strict causality across adjacent frames, effectively suppressing error growth. Second, we introduce the attention sink mechanism into the long-horizon stream video generation task, which allows the model to keep key value states of initial frames as a global context anchor and thereby enhances long-term global consistency. Third, we design an efficient training algorithm that enables few-step distillation over largely extended denoising windows. This algorithm operates on non-overlapping windows and mitigates exposure bias conditioned on self-generated histories. Extensive experiments show that Rolling Forcing enables real-time streaming generation of multi-minute videos on a single GPU, with substantially reduced error accumulation.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) can exhibit impressive proficiency in isolated, short-term tasks, they often fail to maintain coherent performance over longer time horizons. In this paper, we present Vending-Bench, a simulated environment designed to specifically test an LLM-based agent's ability to manage a straightforward, long-running business scenario: operating a vending machine. Agents must balance inventories, place orders, set prices, and handle daily fees - tasks that are each simple but collectively, over long horizons (>20M tokens per run) stress an LLM's capacity for sustained, coherent decision-making. Our experiments reveal high variance in performance across multiple LLMs: Claude 3.5 Sonnet and o3-mini manage the machine well in most runs and turn a profit, but all models have runs that derail, either through misinterpreting delivery schedules, forgetting orders, or descending into tangential "meltdown" loops from which they rarely recover. We find no clear correlation between failures and the point at which the model's context window becomes full, suggesting that these breakdowns do not stem from memory limits. Apart from highlighting the high variance in performance over long time horizons, Vending-Bench also tests models' ability to acquire capital, a necessity in many hypothetical dangerous AI scenarios. We hope the benchmark can help in preparing for the advent of stronger AI systems.

Developing autonomous LLM agents capable of making a series of intelligent decisions to solve complex, real-world tasks is a fast-evolving frontier. Like human cognitive development, agents are expected to acquire knowledge and skills through exploration and interaction with the environment. Despite advances, the community still lacks a unified, interactive reinforcement learning (RL) framework that can effectively train such agents from scratch -- without relying on supervised fine-tuning (SFT) -- across diverse and realistic environments. To bridge this gap, we introduce AgentGym-RL, a new framework to train LLM agents for multi-turn interactive decision-making through RL. The framework features a modular and decoupled architecture, ensuring high flexibility and extensibility. It encompasses a wide variety of real-world scenarios, and supports mainstream RL algorithms. Furthermore, we propose ScalingInter-RL, a training approach designed for exploration-exploitation balance and stable RL optimization. In early stages, it emphasizes exploitation by restricting the number of interactions, and gradually shifts towards exploration with larger horizons to encourage diverse problem-solving strategies. In this way, the agent develops more diverse behaviors and is less prone to collapse under long horizons. We perform extensive experiments to validate the stability and effectiveness of both the AgentGym-RL framework and the ScalingInter-RL approach. Our agents match or surpass commercial models on 27 tasks across diverse environments. We offer key insights and will open-source the complete AgentGym-RL framework -- including code and datasets -- to empower the research community in developing the next generation of intelligent agents.

Auto-regressive video generation enables long video synthesis by iteratively conditioning each new batch of frames on previously generated content. However, recent work has shown that such pipelines suffer from severe temporal drift, where errors accumulate and amplify over long horizons. We hypothesize that this drift does not primarily stem from insufficient model capacity, but rather from inference-time error propagation. Specifically, we contend that drift arises from the uncontrolled reuse of corrupted latent conditioning tokens during auto-regressive inference. To correct this accumulation of errors, we propose a simple, inference-time method that mitigates temporal drift by identifying and removing unstable latent tokens before they are reused for conditioning. For this purpose, we define unstable tokens as latent tokens whose representations deviate significantly from those of the previously generated batch, indicating potential corruption or semantic drift. By explicitly removing corrupted latent tokens from the auto-regressive context, rather than modifying entire spatial regions or model parameters, our method prevents unreliable latent information from influencing future generation steps. As a result, it significantly improves long-horizon temporal consistency without modifying the model architecture, training procedure, or leaving latent space.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in natural language understanding, yet they remain constrained by the finite capacity of their context windows and the inherent difficulty of maintaining long-term factual consistency during multi-hop reasoning. While existing methods utilize context compression or recurrent tokens, they often suffer from ``context rot'' or the dilution of information over long horizons. In this paper, we propose G-MemLLM, a memory-augmented architecture that integrates a frozen LLM backbone with a trainable Latent Memory Bank. Our key innovation is a GRU-style gated update logic that allows the model to selectively update, preserve, or overwrite latent memory slots, preventing the vanishing gradients of knowledge common in recurrent systems. We evaluate G-MemLLM across scales, from GPT-2 (124M) to Llama 3.1 (8B), on the HotpotQA and Zero-Shot Relation Extraction (ZsRE) benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that G-MemLLM significantly enhances multi-hop reasoning and relational precision, achieving a 13.3\% accuracy boost on ZsRE for Llama 3.1-8B, and it also yields improvements across model scales, boosting Answer F1 by 8.56 points for GPT-2 and increasing Supporting Fact F1 by 6.89 points for Llama 3.1-8B on HotpotQA.

Solving complex long-horizon robotic manipulation problems requires sophisticated high-level planning capabilities, the ability to reason about the physical world, and reactively choose appropriate motor skills. Vision-language models (VLMs) pretrained on Internet data could in principle offer a framework for tackling such problems. However, in their current form, VLMs lack both the nuanced understanding of intricate physics required for robotic manipulation and the ability to reason over long horizons to address error compounding issues. In this paper, we introduce a novel test-time computation framework that enhances VLMs' physical reasoning capabilities for multi-stage manipulation tasks. At its core, our approach iteratively improves a pretrained VLM with a "reflection" mechanism - it uses a generative model to imagine future world states, leverages these predictions to guide action selection, and critically reflects on potential suboptimalities to refine its reasoning. Experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms several state-of-the-art commercial VLMs as well as other post-training approaches such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS). Videos are available at https://reflect-vlm.github.io.

Evaluating AI agents within complex, interactive environments that mirror real-world challenges is critical for understanding their practical capabilities. While existing agent benchmarks effectively assess skills like tool use or performance on structured tasks, they often do not fully capture an agent's ability to operate autonomously in exploratory environments that demand sustained, self-directed reasoning over a long and growing context. To spur the development of agents capable of more robust intrinsic reasoning over long horizons, we introduce TextQuests, a benchmark based on the Infocom suite of interactive fiction games. These text-based adventures, which can take human players over 30 hours and require hundreds of precise actions to solve, serve as an effective proxy for evaluating AI agents on focused, stateful tasks. The benchmark is specifically designed to assess an LLM agent's capacity for self-contained problem-solving by precluding the use of external tools, thereby focusing on intrinsic long-context reasoning capabilities in an exploratory environment characterized by the need for trial-and-error learning and sustained problem-solving within a single interactive session. We release TextQuests at https://textquests.ai.

Modern Vision-Language Models (VLMs) remain poorly characterized in multi-step visual interactions, particularly in how they integrate perception, memory, and action over long horizons. We introduce VisGym, a gymnasium of 17 environments for evaluating and training VLMs. The suite spans symbolic puzzles, real-image understanding, navigation, and manipulation, and provides flexible controls over difficulty, input representation, planning horizon, and feedback. We also provide multi-step solvers that generate structured demonstrations, enabling supervised finetuning. Our evaluations show that all frontier models struggle in interactive settings, achieving low success rates in both the easy (46.6%) and hard (26.0%) configurations. Our experiments reveal notable limitations: models struggle to effectively leverage long context, performing worse with an unbounded history than with truncated windows. Furthermore, we find that several text-based symbolic tasks become substantially harder once rendered visually. However, explicit goal observations, textual feedback, and exploratory demonstrations in partially observable or unknown-dynamics settings for supervised finetuning yield consistent gains, highlighting concrete failure modes and pathways for improving multi-step visual decision-making. Code, data, and models can be found at: https://visgym.github.io/.

Maintaining spatial world consistency over long horizons remains a central challenge for camera-controllable video generation. Existing memory-based approaches often condition generation on globally reconstructed 3D scenes by rendering anchor videos from the reconstructed geometry in the history. However, reconstructing a global 3D scene from multiple views inevitably introduces cross-view misalignment, as pose and depth estimation errors cause the same surfaces to be reconstructed at slightly different 3D locations across views. When fused, these inconsistencies accumulate into noisy geometry that contaminates the conditioning signals and degrades generation quality. We introduce AnchorWeave, a memory-augmented video generation framework that replaces a single misaligned global memory with multiple clean local geometric memories and learns to reconcile their cross-view inconsistencies. To this end, AnchorWeave performs coverage-driven local memory retrieval aligned with the target trajectory and integrates the selected local memories through a multi-anchor weaving controller during generation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that AnchorWeave significantly improves long-term scene consistency while maintaining strong visual quality, with ablation and analysis studies further validating the effectiveness of local geometric conditioning, multi-anchor control, and coverage-driven retrieval.

Vision-Language Navigation requires agents to act coherently over long horizons by understanding not only local visual context but also how far they have advanced within a multi-step instruction. However, recent Vision-Language-Action models focus on direct action prediction and earlier progress methods predict numeric achievements; both overlook the monotonic co-progression property of the observation and instruction sequences. Building on this insight, Progress-Think introduces semantic progress reasoning, predicting instruction-style progress from visual observations to enable more accurate navigation. To achieve this without expensive annotations, we propose a three-stage framework. In the initial stage, Self-Aligned Progress Pretraining bootstraps a reasoning module via a novel differentiable alignment between visual history and instruction prefixes. Then, Progress-Guided Policy Pretraining injects learned progress states into the navigation context, guiding the policy toward consistent actions. Finally, Progress-Policy Co-Finetuning jointly optimizes both modules with tailored progress-aware reinforcement objectives. Experiments on R2R-CE and RxR-CE show state-of-the-art success and efficiency, demonstrating that semantic progress yields a more consistent representation of navigation advancement.

The proliferation of collaborative robots across diverse tasks and embodiments presents a central challenge: achieving lifelong adaptability, scalable coordination, and robust scheduling in multi-agent systems. Existing approaches, from vision-language-action (VLA) models to hierarchical frameworks, fall short due to their reliance on limited or dividual-agent memory. This fundamentally constrains their ability to learn over long horizons, scale to heterogeneous teams, or recover from failures, highlighting the need for a unified memory representation. To address these limitations, we introduce RoboOS-NeXT, a unified memory-based framework for lifelong, scalable, and robust multi-robot collaboration. At the core of RoboOS-NeXT is the novel Spatio-Temporal-Embodiment Memory (STEM), which integrates spatial scene geometry, temporal event history, and embodiment profiles into a shared representation. This memory-centric design is integrated into a brain-cerebellum framework, where a high-level brain model performs global planning by retrieving and updating STEM, while low-level controllers execute actions locally. This closed loop between cognition, memory, and execution enables dynamic task allocation, fault-tolerant collaboration, and consistent state synchronization. We conduct extensive experiments spanning complex coordination tasks in restaurants, supermarkets, and households. Our results demonstrate that RoboOS-NeXT achieves superior performance across heterogeneous embodiments, validating its effectiveness in enabling lifelong, scalable, and robust multi-robot collaboration. Project website: https://flagopen.github.io/RoboOS/

Recent progress in neural forecasting accelerated improvements in the performance of large-scale forecasting systems. Yet, long-horizon forecasting remains a very difficult task. Two common challenges afflicting the task are the volatility of the predictions and their computational complexity. We introduce N-HiTS, a model which addresses both challenges by incorporating novel hierarchical interpolation and multi-rate data sampling techniques. These techniques enable the proposed method to assemble its predictions sequentially, emphasizing components with different frequencies and scales while decomposing the input signal and synthesizing the forecast. We prove that the hierarchical interpolation technique can efficiently approximate arbitrarily long horizons in the presence of smoothness. Additionally, we conduct extensive large-scale dataset experiments from the long-horizon forecasting literature, demonstrating the advantages of our method over the state-of-the-art methods, where N-HiTS provides an average accuracy improvement of almost 20% over the latest Transformer architectures while reducing the computation time by an order of magnitude (50 times). Our code is available at bit.ly/3VA5DoT

Large Language Models (LLMs) can serve as world models to enhance agent decision-making in digital environments by simulating future states and predicting action outcomes, potentially eliminating costly trial-and-error exploration. However, this capability is fundamentally limited by LLMs' tendency toward hallucination and their reliance on static training knowledge, which can lead to compounding errors that inhibit long-horizon simulations. To systematically investigate whether LLMs are appropriate for world modeling, we probe two core capabilities of world models--future state prediction and reward estimation--through three tasks: next-state identification, full-procedure planning alignment, and milestone transition recognition. Our analysis shows that while LLMs effectively capture immediate next states and identify meaningful state transitions, their performance rapidly degrades in full-procedure planning. This highlights LLMs' limitations in reliably modeling environment dynamics over long horizons. To address these limitations, we propose the Retrieval-augmented World Model (R-WoM), which grounds LLM simulations by incorporating factual, up-to-date knowledge retrieved from external tutorials. Experiments show that R-WoM achieves substantial improvements of up to 25.3% (OSWorld) and 18.1% (WebArena) compared to baselines, with particular advantages in longer-horizon simulations.

Respiratory motion complicates accurate irradiation of thoraco-abdominal tumors during radiotherapy, as treatment-system latency entails target-location uncertainties. This work addresses frame forecasting in chest and liver cine MRI to compensate for such delays. We investigate RNNs trained with online learning algorithms, enabling adaptation to changing respiratory patterns via on-the-fly parameter updates, and transformers, increasingly common in time-series forecasting for their ability to capture long-term dependencies. Experiments used 12 sagittal thoracic and upper-abdominal cine-MRI sequences from ETH Zürich and OvGU; the OvGU data exhibited higher motion variability, noise, and lower contrast. PCA decomposes the Lucas-Kanade optical-flow field into static deformation modes and low-dimensional, time-dependent weights. We compare various methods for forecasting these weights: linear filters, population and sequence-specific transformer encoders, and RNNs trained with real-time recurrent learning (RTRL), unbiased online recurrent optimization, decoupled neural interfaces, and sparse one-step approximation (SnAp-1). Predicted displacements were used to warp the reference frame and generate future images. Prediction accuracy decreased with the horizon h. Linear regression performed best at short horizons (1.3mm geometrical error at h=0.32s, ETH Zürich dataset), while RTRL and SnAp-1 outperformed the other algorithms at medium-to-long horizons, with geometrical errors below 1.4mm and 2.8mm on the sequences from ETH Zürich and OvGU, respectively. The sequence-specific transformer was competitive for low-to-medium horizons, but transformers remained overall limited by data scarcity and domain shift between datasets. Predicted frames visually resembled the ground truth, with notable errors occurring near the diaphragm at end-inspiration and regions affected by out-of-plane motion.

Data-driven model predictive control has two key advantages over model-free methods: a potential for improved sample efficiency through model learning, and better performance as computational budget for planning increases. However, it is both costly to plan over long horizons and challenging to obtain an accurate model of the environment. In this work, we combine the strengths of model-free and model-based methods. We use a learned task-oriented latent dynamics model for local trajectory optimization over a short horizon, and use a learned terminal value function to estimate long-term return, both of which are learned jointly by temporal difference learning. Our method, TD-MPC, achieves superior sample efficiency and asymptotic performance over prior work on both state and image-based continuous control tasks from DMControl and Meta-World. Code and video results are available at https://nicklashansen.github.io/td-mpc.

Recent advances in embodied AI highlight the potential of vision language models (VLMs) as agents capable of perception, reasoning, and interaction in complex environments. However, top-performing systems rely on large-scale models that are costly to deploy, while smaller VLMs lack the necessary knowledge and skills to succeed. To bridge this gap, we present Embodied Reasoning Agent (ERA), a two-stage framework that integrates prior knowledge learning and online reinforcement learning (RL). The first stage, Embodied Prior Learning, distills foundational knowledge from three types of data: (1) Trajectory-Augmented Priors, which enrich existing trajectory data with structured reasoning generated by stronger models; (2) Environment-Anchored Priors, which provide in-environment knowledge and grounding supervision; and (3) External Knowledge Priors, which transfer general knowledge from out-of-environment datasets. In the second stage, we develop an online RL pipeline that builds on these priors to further enhance agent performance. To overcome the inherent challenges in agent RL, including long horizons, sparse rewards, and training instability, we introduce three key designs: self-summarization for context management, dense reward shaping, and turn-level policy optimization. Extensive experiments on both high-level planning (EB-ALFRED) and low-level control (EB-Manipulation) tasks demonstrate that ERA-3B surpasses both prompting-based large models and previous training-based baselines. Specifically, it achieves overall improvements of 8.4\% on EB-ALFRED and 19.4\% on EB-Manipulation over GPT-4o, and exhibits strong generalization to unseen tasks. Overall, ERA offers a practical path toward scalable embodied intelligence, providing methodological insights for future embodied AI systems.

We focus on agile, continuous, and terrain-adaptive jumping of quadrupedal robots in discontinuous terrains such as stairs and stepping stones. Unlike single-step jumping, continuous jumping requires accurately executing highly dynamic motions over long horizons, which is challenging for existing approaches. To accomplish this task, we design a hierarchical learning and control framework, which consists of a learned heightmap predictor for robust terrain perception, a reinforcement-learning-based centroidal-level motion policy for versatile and terrain-adaptive planning, and a low-level model-based leg controller for accurate motion tracking. In addition, we minimize the sim-to-real gap by accurately modeling the hardware characteristics. Our framework enables a Unitree Go1 robot to perform agile and continuous jumps on human-sized stairs and sparse stepping stones, for the first time to the best of our knowledge. In particular, the robot can cross two stair steps in each jump and completes a 3.5m long, 2.8m high, 14-step staircase in 4.5 seconds. Moreover, the same policy outperforms baselines in various other parkour tasks, such as jumping over single horizontal or vertical discontinuities. Experiment videos can be found at https://yxyang.github.io/jumping\_cod/.

We study how to endow GUI agents with scalable memory that help generalize across unfamiliar interfaces and long-horizon tasks. Prior GUI agents compress past trajectories into text tokens, which balloons context length and misses decisive visual cues (e.g., exact widget size and position). We propose a continuous memory that encodes each GUI trajectory into a fixed-length sequence of continuous embeddings using the VLM itself as an encoder; these embeddings are plugged directly into the backbone's input layer, sharply reducing context cost while preserving fine-grained visual information. As memory size and retrieval depth increase, performance improves monotonically, unlike text memories that degrade with long prompts. To grow memory at low cost, we introduce an auto-scaling data flywheel that (i) discovers new environments via search, (ii) synthesizes tasks with an open-source VLM, (iii) rolls out trajectories with the agent, and (iv) verifies success with the same VLM. Using this pipeline, we collect 100k+ trajectories for about \$4000 and fine-tune only the memory encoder (LoRA on a Q-Former, 1.2\% parameters) with 1,500 samples. On real-world GUI benchmarks, our memory-augmented agent consistently improves success rates under long horizons and distribution shifts. Notably, Qwen-2.5-VL-7B + continuous memory achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art closed-source models (e.g., GPT-4o, Claude-4).

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly trained with reinforcement learning (RL) as autonomous agents that reason and act over long horizons in interactive environments. However, sparse and sometimes unverifiable rewards make temporal credit assignment extremely challenging. Recent work attempts to integrate process supervision into agent learning but suffers from biased annotation, reward hacking, high-variance from overly fine-grained signals or failtures when state overlap is rare. We therefore introduce Online Process Reward Learning (OPRL), a general credit-assignment strategy for agentic RL that integrates seamlessly with standard on-policy algorithms without relying on additional rollouts or explicit step labels. In OPRL, we optimize an implicit process reward model (PRM) alternately with the agent's policy to transform trajectory preferences into implicit step rewards through a trajectory-based DPO objective. These step rewards are then used to compute step-level advantages, which are combined with episode-level advantages from outcome rewards for policy update, creating a self-reinforcing loop. Theoretical findings guarantee that the learned step rewards are consistent with trajectory preferences and act as potential-based shaping rewards, providing bounded gradients to stabilize training. Empirically, we evaluate OPRL on three distinct agent benmarks, including WebShop and VisualSokoban, as well as open-ended social interactions with unverfiable rewards in SOTOPIA. Crucially, OPRL shows superior performance over frontier LLMs and strong RL baselines across domains, achieving state-of-the-art results with higher sample-efficiency and lower variance during training. Further analysis also demonstrates the efficient exploration by OPRL using fewer actions, underscoring its potential for agentic learning in real-world scenarios.

Intelligent agents must be generalists - showing the ability to quickly adapt and generalize to varying tasks. Within the framework of reinforcement learning (RL), model-based RL algorithms learn a task-agnostic dynamics model of the world, in principle allowing them to generalize to arbitrary rewards. However, one-step models naturally suffer from compounding errors, making them ineffective for problems with long horizons and large state spaces. In this work, we propose a novel class of models - generalized occupancy models (GOMs) - that retain the generality of model-based RL while avoiding compounding error. The key idea behind GOMs is to model the distribution of all possible long-term outcomes from a given state under the coverage of a stationary dataset, along with a policy that realizes a particular outcome from the given state. These models can then quickly be used to select the optimal action for arbitrary new tasks, without having to redo policy optimization. By directly modeling long-term outcomes, GOMs avoid compounding error while retaining generality across arbitrary reward functions. We provide a practical instantiation of GOMs using diffusion models and show its efficacy as a new class of transferable models, both theoretically and empirically across a variety of simulated robotics problems. Videos and code at https://weirdlabuw.github.io/gom/.

Training generalist agents is difficult across several axes, requiring us to deal with high-dimensional inputs (space), long horizons (time), and generalization to novel tasks. Recent advances with architectures have allowed for improved scaling along one or two of these axes, but are still computationally prohibitive to use. In this paper, we propose to address all three axes by leveraging Language to Control Diffusion models as a hierarchical planner conditioned on language (LCD). We effectively and efficiently scale diffusion models for planning in extended temporal, state, and task dimensions to tackle long horizon control problems conditioned on natural language instructions, as a step towards generalist agents. Comparing LCD with other state-of-the-art models on the CALVIN language robotics benchmark finds that LCD outperforms other SOTA methods in multi-task success rates, whilst improving inference speed over other comparable diffusion models by 3.3x~15x. We show that LCD can successfully leverage the unique strength of diffusion models to produce coherent long range plans while addressing their weakness in generating low-level details and control.

The accurate modeling of dynamics in interactive environments is critical for successful long-range prediction. Such a capability could advance Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Planning algorithms, but achieving it is challenging. Inaccuracies in model estimates can compound, resulting in increased errors over long horizons. We approach this problem from the lens of Koopman theory, where the nonlinear dynamics of the environment can be linearized in a high-dimensional latent space. This allows us to efficiently parallelize the sequential problem of long-range prediction using convolution while accounting for the agent's action at every time step. Our approach also enables stability analysis and better control over gradients through time. Taken together, these advantages result in significant improvement over the existing approaches, both in the efficiency and the accuracy of modeling dynamics over extended horizons. We also show that this model can be easily incorporated into dynamics modeling for model-based planning and model-free RL and report promising experimental results.

Outcome-driven reinforcement learning has advanced reasoning in large language models (LLMs), but prevailing tool-augmented approaches train a single, monolithic policy that interleaves thoughts and tool calls under full context; this scales poorly with long horizons and diverse tools and generalizes weakly to new scenarios. Agentic systems offer a promising alternative by decomposing work across specialized modules, yet most remain training-free or rely on offline training decoupled from the live dynamics of multi-turn interaction. We introduce AgentFlow, a trainable, in-the-flow agentic framework that coordinates four modules (planner, executor, verifier, generator) through an evolving memory and directly optimizes its planner inside the multi-turn loop. To train on-policy in live environments, we propose Flow-based Group Refined Policy Optimization (Flow-GRPO), which tackles long-horizon, sparse-reward credit assignment by converting multi-turn optimization into a sequence of tractable single-turn policy updates. It broadcasts a single, verifiable trajectory-level outcome to every turn to align local planner decisions with global success and stabilizes learning with group-normalized advantages. Across ten benchmarks, AgentFlow with a 7B-scale backbone outperforms top-performing baselines with average accuracy gains of 14.9% on search, 14.0% on agentic, 14.5% on mathematical, and 4.1% on scientific tasks, even surpassing larger proprietary models like GPT-4o. Further analyses confirm the benefits of in-the-flow optimization, showing improved planning, enhanced tool-calling reliability, and positive scaling with model size and reasoning turns.

Agent memory has been touted as a dimension of growth for LLM-based applications, enabling agents that can accumulate experience, adapt across sessions, and move beyond single-shot question answering. The current generation of agent memory systems treats memory as an external layer that extracts salient snippets from conversations, stores them in vector or graph-based stores, and retrieves top-k items into the prompt of an otherwise stateless model. While these systems improve personalization and context carry-over, they still blur the line between evidence and inference, struggle to organize information over long horizons, and offer limited support for agents that must explain their reasoning. We present Hindsight, a memory architecture that treats agent memory as a structured, first-class substrate for reasoning by organizing it into four logical networks that distinguish world facts, agent experiences, synthesized entity summaries, and evolving beliefs. This framework supports three core operations -- retain, recall, and reflect -- that govern how information is added, accessed, and updated. Under this abstraction, a temporal, entity aware memory layer incrementally turns conversational streams into a structured, queryable memory bank, while a reflection layer reasons over this bank to produce answers and to update information in a traceable way. On key long-horizon conversational memory benchmarks like LongMemEval and LoCoMo, Hindsight with an open-source 20B model lifts overall accuracy from 39% to 83.6% over a full-context baseline with the same backbone and outperforms full context GPT-4o. Scaling the backbone further pushes Hindsight to 91.4% on LongMemEval and up to 89.61% on LoCoMo (vs. 75.78% for the strongest prior open system), consistently outperforming existing memory architectures on multi-session and open-domain questions.

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

LWM-Temporal is a new member of the Large Wireless Models (LWM) family that targets the spatiotemporal nature of wireless channels. Designed as a task-agnostic foundation model, LWM-Temporal learns universal channel embeddings that capture mobility-induced evolution and are reusable across various downstream tasks. To achieve this objective, LWM-Temporal operates in the angle-delay-time domain and introduces Sparse Spatio-Temporal Attention (SSTA), a propagation-aligned attention mechanism that restricts interactions to physically plausible neighborhoods, reducing attention complexity by an order of magnitude while preserving geometry-consistent dependencies. LWM-Temporal is pretrained in a self-supervised manner using a physics-informed masking curriculum that emulates realistic occlusions, pilot sparsity, and measurement impairments. Experimental results on channel prediction across multiple mobility regimes show consistent improvements over strong baselines, particularly under long horizons and limited fine-tuning data, highlighting the importance of geometry-aware architectures and geometry-consistent pretraining for learning transferable spatiotemporal wireless representations.

Effective decision-making in the real world depends on memory that is both stable and adaptive: environments change over time, and agents must retain relevant information over long horizons while also updating or overwriting outdated content when circumstances shift. Existing Reinforcement Learning (RL) benchmarks and memory-augmented agents focus primarily on retention, leaving the equally critical ability of memory rewriting largely unexplored. To address this gap, we introduce a benchmark that explicitly tests continual memory updating under partial observability, i.e. the natural setting where an agent must rely on memory rather than current observations, and use it to compare recurrent, transformer-based, and structured memory architectures. Our experiments reveal that classic recurrent models, despite their simplicity, demonstrate greater flexibility and robustness in memory rewriting tasks than modern structured memories, which succeed only under narrow conditions, and transformer-based agents, which often fail beyond trivial retention cases. These findings expose a fundamental limitation of current approaches and emphasize the necessity of memory mechanisms that balance stable retention with adaptive updating. Our work highlights this overlooked challenge, introduces benchmarks to evaluate it, and offers insights for designing future RL agents with explicit and trainable forgetting mechanisms. Code: https://quartz-admirer.github.io/Memory-Rewriting/

Prediction markets allow users to trade on outcomes of real-world events, but are prone to fragmentation through overlapping questions, implicit equivalences, and hidden contradictions across markets. We present an agentic AI pipeline that autonomously (i) clusters markets into coherent topical groups using natural-language understanding over contract text and metadata, and (ii) identifies within-cluster market pairs whose resolved outcomes exhibit strong dependence, including same-outcome (correlated) and different-outcome (anti-correlated) relationships. Using a historical dataset of resolved markets on Polymarket, we evaluate the accuracy of the agent's relational predictions. We then translate discovered relationships into a simple trading strategy to quantify how these relationships map to actionable signals. Results show that agent-identified relationships achieve roughly 60-70% accuracy, and their induced trading strategies earn about 20% average returns over week-long horizons, highlighting the ability of agentic AI and large language models to uncover latent semantic structure in prediction markets.

This work studies training instabilities of behavior cloning with deep neural networks. We observe that minibatch SGD updates to the policy network during training result in sharp oscillations in long-horizon rewards, despite negligibly affecting the behavior cloning loss. We empirically disentangle the statistical and computational causes of these oscillations, and find them to stem from the chaotic propagation of minibatch SGD noise through unstable closed-loop dynamics. While SGD noise is benign in the single-step action prediction objective, it results in catastrophic error accumulation over long horizons, an effect we term gradient variance amplification (GVA). We show that many standard mitigation techniques do not alleviate GVA, but find an exponential moving average (EMA) of iterates to be surprisingly effective at doing so. We illustrate the generality of this phenomenon by showing the existence of GVA and its amelioration by EMA in both continuous control and autoregressive language generation. Finally, we provide theoretical vignettes that highlight the benefits of EMA in alleviating GVA and shed light on the extent to which classical convex models can help in understanding the benefits of iterate averaging in deep learning.

Multi-task Imitation Learning (MIL) aims to train a policy capable of performing a distribution of tasks based on multi-task expert demonstrations, which is essential for general-purpose robots. Existing MIL algorithms suffer from low data efficiency and poor performance on complex long-horizontal tasks. We develop Multi-task Hierarchical Adversarial Inverse Reinforcement Learning (MH-AIRL) to learn hierarchically-structured multi-task policies, which is more beneficial for compositional tasks with long horizons and has higher expert data efficiency through identifying and transferring reusable basic skills across tasks. To realize this, MH-AIRL effectively synthesizes context-based multi-task learning, AIRL (an IL approach), and hierarchical policy learning. Further, MH-AIRL can be adopted to demonstrations without the task or skill annotations (i.e., state-action pairs only) which are more accessible in practice. Theoretical justifications are provided for each module of MH-AIRL, and evaluations on challenging multi-task settings demonstrate superior performance and transferability of the multi-task policies learned with MH-AIRL as compared to SOTA MIL baselines.

We explore the use of Evolution Strategies (ES), a class of black box optimization algorithms, as an alternative to popular MDP-based RL techniques such as Q-learning and Policy Gradients. Experiments on MuJoCo and Atari show that ES is a viable solution strategy that scales extremely well with the number of CPUs available: By using a novel communication strategy based on common random numbers, our ES implementation only needs to communicate scalars, making it possible to scale to over a thousand parallel workers. This allows us to solve 3D humanoid walking in 10 minutes and obtain competitive results on most Atari games after one hour of training. In addition, we highlight several advantages of ES as a black box optimization technique: it is invariant to action frequency and delayed rewards, tolerant of extremely long horizons, and does not need temporal discounting or value function approximation.

Dynamical systems theory and reinforcement learning view world evolution as latent-state dynamics driven by actions, with visual observations providing partial information about the state. Recent video world models attempt to learn this action-conditioned dynamics from data. However, existing datasets rarely match the requirement: they typically lack diverse and semantically meaningful action spaces, and actions are directly tied to visual observations rather than mediated by underlying states. As a result, actions are often entangled with pixel-level changes, making it difficult for models to learn structured world dynamics and maintain consistent evolution over long horizons. In this paper, we propose WildWorld, a large-scale action-conditioned world modeling dataset with explicit state annotations, automatically collected from a photorealistic AAA action role-playing game (Monster Hunter: Wilds). WildWorld contains over 108 million frames and features more than 450 actions, including movement, attacks, and skill casting, together with synchronized per-frame annotations of character skeletons, world states, camera poses, and depth maps. We further derive WildBench to evaluate models through Action Following and State Alignment. Extensive experiments reveal persistent challenges in modeling semantically rich actions and maintaining long-horizon state consistency, highlighting the need for state-aware video generation. The project page is https://shandaai.github.io/wildworld-project/.

Complex reasoning in tool-augmented agent frameworks is inherently long-horizon, causing reasoning traces and transient tool artifacts to accumulate and strain the bounded working context of large language models. Without explicit memory mechanisms, such accumulation disrupts logical continuity and undermines task alignment. This positions memory not as an auxiliary efficiency concern, but as a core component for sustaining coherent, goal-directed reasoning over long horizons. We propose MemoBrain, an executive memory model for tool-augmented agents that constructs a dependency-aware memory over reasoning steps, capturing salient intermediate states and their logical relations. Operating as a co-pilot alongside the reasoning agent, MemoBrain organizes reasoning progress without blocking execution and actively manages the working context. Specifically, it prunes invalid steps, folds completed sub-trajectories, and preserves a compact, high-salience reasoning backbone under a fixed context budget. Together, these mechanisms enable explicit cognitive control over reasoning trajectories rather than passive context accumulation. We evaluate MemoBrain on challenging long-horizon benchmarks, including GAIA, WebWalker, and BrowseComp-Plus, demonstrating consistent improvements over strong baselines.

Large Language Models (LLMs) face fundamental challenges in long-context reasoning: many documents exceed their finite context windows, while performance on texts that do fit degrades with sequence length, necessitating their augmentation with external memory frameworks. Current solutions, which have evolved from retrieval using semantic embeddings to more sophisticated structured knowledge graphs representations for improved sense-making and associativity, are tailored for fact-based retrieval and fail to build the space-time-anchored narrative representations required for tracking entities through episodic events. To bridge this gap, we propose the Generative Semantic Workspace (GSW), a neuro-inspired generative memory framework that builds structured, interpretable representations of evolving situations, enabling LLMs to reason over evolving roles, actions, and spatiotemporal contexts. Our framework comprises an Operator, which maps incoming observations to intermediate semantic structures, and a Reconciler, which integrates these into a persistent workspace that enforces temporal, spatial, and logical coherence. On the Episodic Memory Benchmark (EpBench) huet_episodic_2025 comprising corpora ranging from 100k to 1M tokens in length, GSW outperforms existing RAG based baselines by up to 20\%. Furthermore, GSW is highly efficient, reducing query-time context tokens by 51\% compared to the next most token-efficient baseline, reducing inference time costs considerably. More broadly, GSW offers a concrete blueprint for endowing LLMs with human-like episodic memory, paving the way for more capable agents that can reason over long horizons.

Large language models are increasingly deployed in multi-turn settings such as tutoring, support, and counseling, where reliability depends on preserving consistent roles, personas, and goals across long horizons. This requirement becomes critical when LLMs are used to generate synthetic dialogues for training and evaluation, since LLM--LLM conversations can accumulate identity-related failures such as persona drift, role confusion, and "echoing", where one agent gradually mirrors its partner. We introduce SPASM (Stable Persona-driven Agent Simulation for Multi-turn dialogue generation), a modular, stability-first framework that decomposes simulation into (i) persona creation via schema sampling, plausibility validation, and natural-language persona crafting, (ii) Client--Responder dialogue generation, and (iii) termination detection for coherent stopping. To improve long-horizon stability without changing model weights, we propose Egocentric Context Projection (ECP): dialogue history is stored in a perspective-agnostic representation and deterministically projected into each agent's egocentric view before generation. Across three LLM backbones (GPT-4o-mini, DeepSeek-V3.2, Qwen-Plus) and nine Client--Responder pairings, we construct a dataset of 4,500 personas and 45,000 conversations (500 personas X 10 conversations per pairing). Ablations show ECP substantially reduces persona drift and, under human validation, eliminates echoing; embedding analyses recover persona structure and reveal strong responder-driven interaction geometry. Our code is available at https://github.com/lhannnn/SPASM.

UAV vision-language navigation (VLN) requires an agent to navigate complex 3D environments from an egocentric perspective while following ambiguous multi-step instructions over long horizons. Existing zero-shot methods remain limited, as they often rely on large base models, generic prompts, and loosely coordinated modules. In this work, we propose FineCog-Nav, a top-down framework inspired by human cognition that organizes navigation into fine-grained modules for language processing, perception, attention, memory, imagination, reasoning, and decision-making. Each module is driven by a moderate-sized foundation model with role-specific prompts and structured input-output protocols, enabling effective collaboration and improved interpretability. To support fine-grained evaluation, we construct AerialVLN-Fine, a curated benchmark of 300 trajectories derived from AerialVLN, with sentence-level instruction-trajectory alignment and refined instructions containing explicit visual endpoints and landmark references. Experiments show that FineCog-Nav consistently outperforms zero-shot baselines in instruction adherence, long-horizon planning, and generalization to unseen environments. These results suggest the effectiveness of fine-grained cognitive modularization for zero-shot aerial navigation. Project page: https://smartdianlab.github.io/projects-FineCogNav.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has been widely used to train LLM agents for multi-turn interactive tasks, but its sample efficiency is severely limited by sparse rewards and long horizons. On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) alleviates this by providing dense token-level supervision from a privileged teacher that has access to ground-truth answers. However, such fixed privileged information cannot capture the diverse valid strategies in agent tasks, and naively combining OPSD with RL often leads to training collapse. To address these limitations, we introduce Skill-SD, a framework that turns the agent's own trajectories into dynamic training-only supervision. Completed trajectories are summarized into compact natural language skills that describe successful behaviors, mistakes, and workflows. These skills serve as dynamic privileged information conditioning only the teacher, while the student always acts under the plain task prompt and learns to internalize the guidance through distillation. To stabilize the training, we derive an importance-weighted reverse-KL loss to provide gradient-correct token-level distillation, and dynamically synchronize the teacher with the improving student. Experimental results on agentic benchmarks demonstrate that Skill-SD substantially outperforms the standard RL baseline, improving both vanilla GRPO (+14.0%/+10.9% on AppWorld/Sokoban) and vanilla OPD (+42.1%/+40.6%). Project page: https://k1xe.github.io/skill-sd/

A world model is an AI system that simulates how an environment evolves under actions, enabling planning through imagined futures rather than reactive perception. Current world models, however, suffer from visual conflation: the mistaken assumption that high-fidelity video generation implies an understanding of physical and causal dynamics. We show that while modern models excel at predicting pixels, they frequently violate invariant constraints, fail under intervention, and break down in safety-critical decision-making. This survey argues that visual realism is an unreliable proxy for world understanding. Instead, effective world models must encode causal structure, respect domain-specific constraints, and remain stable over long horizons. We propose a reframing of world models as actionable simulators rather than visual engines, emphasizing structured 4D interfaces, constraint-aware dynamics, and closed-loop evaluation. Using medical decision-making as an epistemic stress test, where trial-and-error is impossible and errors are irreversible, we demonstrate that a world model's value is determined not by how realistic its rollouts appear, but by its ability to support counterfactual reasoning, intervention planning, and robust long-horizon foresight.

Auto-bidding plays a crucial role in facilitating online advertising by automatically providing bids for advertisers. Reinforcement learning (RL) has gained popularity for auto-bidding. However, most current RL auto-bidding methods are modeled through the Markovian Decision Process (MDP), which assumes the Markovian state transition. This assumption restricts the ability to perform in long horizon scenarios and makes the model unstable when dealing with highly random online advertising environments. To tackle this issue, this paper introduces AI-Generated Bidding (AIGB), a novel paradigm for auto-bidding through generative modeling. In this paradigm, we propose DiffBid, a conditional diffusion modeling approach for bid generation. DiffBid directly models the correlation between the return and the entire trajectory, effectively avoiding error propagation across time steps in long horizons. Additionally, DiffBid offers a versatile approach for generating trajectories that maximize given targets while adhering to specific constraints. Extensive experiments conducted on the real-world dataset and online A/B test on Alibaba advertising platform demonstrate the effectiveness of DiffBid, achieving 2.81% increase in GMV and 3.36% increase in ROI.

Koopman representations aim to learn features of nonlinear dynamical systems (NLDS) which lead to linear dynamics in the latent space. Theoretically, such features can be used to simplify many problems in modeling and control of NLDS. In this work we study autoencoder formulations of this problem, and different ways they can be used to model dynamics, specifically for future state prediction over long horizons. We discover several limitations of predicting future states in the latent space and propose an inference-time mechanism, which we refer to as Periodic Reencoding, for faithfully capturing long term dynamics. We justify this method both analytically and empirically via experiments in low and high dimensional NLDS.

A broad use case of large language models (LLMs) is in goal-directed decision-making tasks (or "agent" tasks), where an LLM needs to not just generate completions for a given prompt, but rather make intelligent decisions over a multi-turn interaction to accomplish a task (e.g., when interacting with the web, using tools, or providing customer support). Reinforcement learning (RL) provides a general paradigm to address such agent tasks, but current RL methods for LLMs largely focus on optimizing single-turn rewards. By construction, most single-turn RL methods cannot endow LLMs with the ability to intelligently seek information over multiple turns, perform credit assignment, or reason about their past actions -- all of which are critical in agent tasks. This raises the question: how can we design effective and efficient multi-turn RL algorithms for LLMs? In this paper, we develop a framework for building multi-turn RL algorithms for fine-tuning LLMs, that preserves the flexibility of existing single-turn RL methods for LLMs (e.g., proximal policy optimization), while accommodating multiple turns, long horizons, and delayed rewards effectively. To do this, our framework adopts a hierarchical RL approach and runs two RL algorithms in parallel: a high-level off-policy value-based RL algorithm to aggregate reward over utterances, and a low-level RL algorithm that utilizes this high-level value function to train a token policy within each utterance or turn. Our hierarchical framework, Actor-Critic Framework with a Hierarchical Structure (ArCHer), can also give rise to other RL methods. Empirically, we find that ArCHer significantly improves efficiency and performance on agent tasks, attaining a sample efficiency of about 100x over existing methods, while also improving with larger model capacity (upto the 7 billion scale that we tested on).

We present a novel non attention based architecture for large language models (LLMs) that efficiently handles very long context windows, on the order of hundreds of thousands to potentially millions of tokens. Unlike traditional Transformer designs, which suffer from quadratic memory and computation overload due to the nature of the self attention mechanism, our model avoids token to token attention entirely. Instead, it combines the following complementary components: State Space blocks (inspired by S4) that learn continuous time convolution kernels and scale near linearly with sequence length, Multi Resolution Convolution layers that capture local context at different dilation levels, a lightweight Recurrent Supervisor to maintain a global hidden state across sequential chunks, and Retrieval Augmented External Memory that stores and retrieves high-level chunk embeddings without reintroducing quadratic operations.

While agent evaluation has shifted toward long-horizon tasks, most benchmarks still emphasize local, step-level reasoning rather than the global constrained optimization (e.g., time and financial budgets) that demands genuine planning ability. Meanwhile, existing LLM planning benchmarks underrepresent the active information gathering and fine-grained local constraints typical of real-world settings. To address this, we introduce DeepPlanning, a challenging benchmark for practical long-horizon agent planning. It features multi-day travel planning and multi-product shopping tasks that require proactive information acquisition, local constrained reasoning, and global constrained optimization. Evaluations on DeepPlanning show that even frontier agentic LLMs struggle with these problems, highlighting the importance of reliable explicit reasoning patterns and parallel tool use for achieving better effectiveness-efficiency trade-offs. Error analysis further points to promising directions for improving agentic LLMs over long planning horizons. We open-source the code and data to support future research.

Time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) are ubiquitous in science and engineering. Recently, mostly due to the high computational cost of traditional solution techniques, deep neural network based surrogates have gained increased interest. The practical utility of such neural PDE solvers relies on their ability to provide accurate, stable predictions over long time horizons, which is a notoriously hard problem. In this work, we present a large-scale analysis of common temporal rollout strategies, identifying the neglect of non-dominant spatial frequency information, often associated with high frequencies in PDE solutions, as the primary pitfall limiting stable, accurate rollout performance. Based on these insights, we draw inspiration from recent advances in diffusion models to introduce PDE-Refiner; a novel model class that enables more accurate modeling of all frequency components via a multistep refinement process. We validate PDE-Refiner on challenging benchmarks of complex fluid dynamics, demonstrating stable and accurate rollouts that consistently outperform state-of-the-art models, including neural, numerical, and hybrid neural-numerical architectures. We further demonstrate that PDE-Refiner greatly enhances data efficiency, since the denoising objective implicitly induces a novel form of spectral data augmentation. Finally, PDE-Refiner's connection to diffusion models enables an accurate and efficient assessment of the model's predictive uncertainty, allowing us to estimate when the surrogate becomes inaccurate.

Long-term memory is a critical capability for multimodal large language model (MLLM) agents, particularly in conversational settings where information accumulates and evolves over time. However, existing benchmarks either evaluate multi-session memory in text-only conversations or assess multimodal understanding within localized contexts, failing to evaluate how multimodal memory is preserved, organized, and evolved across long-term conversational trajectories. Thus, we introduce Mem-Gallery, a new benchmark for evaluating multimodal long-term conversational memory in MLLM agents. Mem-Gallery features high-quality multi-session conversations grounded in both visual and textual information, with long interaction horizons and rich multimodal dependencies. Building on this dataset, we propose a systematic evaluation framework that assesses key memory capabilities along three functional dimensions: memory extraction and test-time adaptation, memory reasoning, and memory knowledge management. Extensive benchmarking across thirteen memory systems reveals several key findings, highlighting the necessity of explicit multimodal information retention and memory organization, the persistent limitations in memory reasoning and knowledge management, as well as the efficiency bottleneck of current models.

Large language model (LLM)-based agents exhibit strong step-by-step reasoning capabilities over short horizons, yet often fail to sustain coherent behavior over long planning horizons. We argue that this failure reflects a fundamental mismatch: step-wise reasoning induces a form of step-wise greedy policy that is adequate for short horizons but fails in long-horizon planning, where early actions must account for delayed consequences. From this planning-centric perspective, we study LLM-based agents in deterministic, fully structured environments with explicit state transitions and evaluation signals. Our analysis reveals a core failure mode of reasoning-based policies: locally optimal choices induced by step-wise scoring lead to early myopic commitments that are systematically amplified over time and difficult to recover from. We introduce FLARE (Future-aware Lookahead with Reward Estimation) as a minimal instantiation of future-aware planning to enforce explicit lookahead, value propagation, and limited commitment in a single model, allowing downstream outcomes to influence early decisions. Across multiple benchmarks, agent frameworks, and LLM backbones, FLARE consistently improves task performance and planning-level behavior, frequently allowing LLaMA-8B with FLARE to outperform GPT-4o with standard step-by-step reasoning. These results establish a clear distinction between reasoning and planning.

How well do AI systems perform in algorithm engineering for hard optimization problems in domains such as package-delivery routing, crew scheduling, factory production planning, and power-grid balancing? We introduce ALE-Bench, a new benchmark for evaluating AI systems on score-based algorithmic programming contests. Drawing on real tasks from the AtCoder Heuristic Contests, ALE-Bench presents optimization problems that are computationally hard and admit no known exact solution. Unlike short-duration, pass/fail coding benchmarks, ALE-Bench encourages iterative solution refinement over long time horizons. Our software framework supports interactive agent architectures that leverage test-run feedback and visualizations. Our evaluation of frontier LLMs revealed that while they demonstrate high performance on specific problems, a notable gap remains compared to humans in terms of consistency across problems and long-horizon problem-solving capabilities. This highlights the need for this benchmark to foster future AI advancements.

Accurate long-horizon vessel trajectory prediction remains challenging due to compounded uncertainty from complex navigation behaviors and environmental factors. Existing methods often struggle to maintain global directional consistency, leading to drifting or implausible trajectories when extrapolated over long time horizons. To address this issue, we propose a semantic-key-point-conditioned trajectory modeling framework, in which future trajectories are predicted by conditioning on a high-level Next Key Point (NKP) that captures navigational intent. This formulation decomposes long-horizon prediction into global semantic decision-making and local motion modeling, effectively restricting the support of future trajectories to semantically feasible subsets. To efficiently estimate the NKP prior from historical observations, we adopt a pretrain-finetune strategy. Extensive experiments on real-world AIS data demonstrate that the proposed method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches, particularly for long travel durations, directional accuracy, and fine-grained trajectory prediction.

Entropy regularization is a standard technique in reinforcement learning (RL) to enhance exploration, yet it yields negligible effects or even degrades performance in Large Language Models (LLMs). We attribute this failure to the cumulative tail risk inherent to LLMs with massive vocabularies and long generation horizons. In such environments, standard global entropy maximization indiscriminately dilutes probability mass into the vast tail of invalid tokens rather than focusing on plausible candidates, thereby disrupting coherent reasoning. To address this, we propose Trust Region Entropy (TRE), a method that encourages exploration strictly within the model's trust region. Extensive experiments across mathematical reasoning (MATH), combinatorial search (Countdown), and preference alignment (HH) tasks demonstrate that TRE consistently outperforms vanilla PPO, standard entropy regularization, and other exploration baselines. Our code is available at https://github.com/WhyChaos/TRE-Encouraging-Exploration-in-the-Trust-Region.

Owing to their ability to both effectively integrate information over long time horizons and scale to massive amounts of data, self-attention architectures have recently shown breakthrough success in natural language processing (NLP), achieving state-of-the-art results in domains such as language modeling and machine translation. Harnessing the transformer's ability to process long time horizons of information could provide a similar performance boost in partially observable reinforcement learning (RL) domains, but the large-scale transformers used in NLP have yet to be successfully applied to the RL setting. In this work we demonstrate that the standard transformer architecture is difficult to optimize, which was previously observed in the supervised learning setting but becomes especially pronounced with RL objectives. We propose architectural modifications that substantially improve the stability and learning speed of the original Transformer and XL variant. The proposed architecture, the Gated Transformer-XL (GTrXL), surpasses LSTMs on challenging memory environments and achieves state-of-the-art results on the multi-task DMLab-30 benchmark suite, exceeding the performance of an external memory architecture. We show that the GTrXL, trained using the same losses, has stability and performance that consistently matches or exceeds a competitive LSTM baseline, including on more reactive tasks where memory is less critical. GTrXL offers an easy-to-train, simple-to-implement but substantially more expressive architectural alternative to the standard multi-layer LSTM ubiquitously used for RL agents in partially observable environments.

Large language models (LLMs) provide a promising tool that enable robots to perform complex robot reasoning tasks. However, the limited context window of contemporary LLMs makes reasoning over long time horizons difficult. Embodied tasks such as those that one might expect a household robot to perform typically require that the planner consider information acquired a long time ago (e.g., properties of the many objects that the robot previously encountered in the environment). Attempts to capture the world state using an LLM's implicit internal representation is complicated by the paucity of task- and environment-relevant information available in a robot's action history, while methods that rely on the ability to convey information via the prompt to the LLM are subject to its limited context window. In this paper, we propose Statler, a framework that endows LLMs with an explicit representation of the world state as a form of ``memory'' that is maintained over time. Integral to Statler is its use of two instances of general LLMs -- a world-model reader and a world-model writer -- that interface with and maintain the world state. By providing access to this world state ``memory'', Statler improves the ability of existing LLMs to reason over longer time horizons without the constraint of context length. We evaluate the effectiveness of our approach on three simulated table-top manipulation domains and a real robot domain, and show that it improves the state-of-the-art in LLM-based robot reasoning. Project website: https://statler-lm.github.io/

Recent advances in the theory of Neural Operators (NOs) have enabled fast and accurate computation of the solutions to complex systems described by partial differential equations (PDEs). Despite their great success, current NO-based solutions face important challenges when dealing with spatio-temporal PDEs over long time scales. Specifically, the current theory of NOs does not present a systematic framework to perform data assimilation and efficiently correct the evolution of PDE solutions over time based on sparsely sampled noisy measurements. In this paper, we propose a learning-based state-space approach to compute the solution operators to infinite-dimensional semilinear PDEs. Exploiting the structure of semilinear PDEs and the theory of nonlinear observers in function spaces, we develop a flexible recursive method that allows for both prediction and data assimilation by combining prediction and correction operations. The proposed framework is capable of producing fast and accurate predictions over long time horizons, dealing with irregularly sampled noisy measurements to correct the solution, and benefits from the decoupling between the spatial and temporal dynamics of this class of PDEs. We show through experiments on the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky, Navier-Stokes and Korteweg-de Vries equations that the proposed model is robust to noise and can leverage arbitrary amounts of measurements to correct its prediction over a long time horizon with little computational overhead.

On April 13th, 2019, OpenAI Five became the first AI system to defeat the world champions at an esports game. The game of Dota 2 presents novel challenges for AI systems such as long time horizons, imperfect information, and complex, continuous state-action spaces, all challenges which will become increasingly central to more capable AI systems. OpenAI Five leveraged existing reinforcement learning techniques, scaled to learn from batches of approximately 2 million frames every 2 seconds. We developed a distributed training system and tools for continual training which allowed us to train OpenAI Five for 10 months. By defeating the Dota 2 world champion (Team OG), OpenAI Five demonstrates that self-play reinforcement learning can achieve superhuman performance on a difficult task.

Natural language provides an accessible and expressive interface to specify long-term tasks for robotic agents. However, non-experts are likely to specify such tasks with high-level instructions, which abstract over specific robot actions through several layers of abstraction. We propose that key to bridging this gap between language and robot actions over long execution horizons are persistent representations. We propose a persistent spatial semantic representation method, and show how it enables building an agent that performs hierarchical reasoning to effectively execute long-term tasks. We evaluate our approach on the ALFRED benchmark and achieve state-of-the-art results, despite completely avoiding the commonly used step-by-step instructions.

Foundation models are transitioning from offline predictors to deployed systems expected to operate over long time horizons. In real deployments, objectives are not fixed: domains drift, user preferences evolve, and new tasks appear after the model has shipped. This elevates continual learning and instant personalization from optional features to core architectural requirements. Yet most adaptation pipelines still follow a static weight paradigm: after training (or after any adaptation step), inference executes a single parameter vector regardless of user intent, domain, or instance-specific constraints. This treats the trained or adapted model as a single point in parameter space. In heterogeneous and continually evolving regimes, distinct objectives can induce separated feasible regions over parameters, forcing any single shared update into compromise, interference, or overspecialization. As a result, continual learning and personalization are often implemented as repeated overwriting of shared weights, risking degradation of previously learned behaviors. We propose HY-WU (Weight Unleashing), a memory-first adaptation framework that shifts adaptation pressure away from overwriting a single shared parameter point. HY-WU implements functional (operator-level) memory as a neural module: a generator that synthesizes weight updates on-the-fly from the instance condition, yielding instance-specific operators without test-time optimization.

We present Recurrent Video Masked-Autoencoders (RVM): a novel approach to video representation learning that leverages recurrent computation to model the temporal structure of video data. RVM couples an asymmetric masking objective with a transformer-based recurrent neural network to aggregate information over time, training solely on a simple pixel reconstruction loss. This design yields a highly efficient "generalist" encoder: RVM achieves competitive performance with state-of-the-art video models (e.g. VideoMAE, V-JEPA) on video-level tasks like action classification, and point and object tracking, while matching or exceeding the performance of image models (e.g. DINOv2) on tasks that require strong geometric and dense spatial features. Notably, RVM achieves strong performance in the small-model regime without requiring knowledge distillation, exhibiting up to 30x greater parameter efficiency than competing video masked autoencoders. Finally, we demonstrate that RVM's recurrent nature allows for stable feature propagation over long temporal horizons with linear computational cost, overcoming some of the limitations of standard spatio-temporal attention-based video models. Ablation studies further highlight the factors driving the model's success, with qualitative results showing that RVM learns rich representations of scene semantics, structure, and motion.

Neural MMO is a computationally accessible research platform that combines large agent populations, long time horizons, open-ended tasks, and modular game systems. Existing environments feature subsets of these properties, but Neural MMO is the first to combine them all. We present Neural MMO as free and open source software with active support, ongoing development, documentation, and additional training, logging, and visualization tools to help users adapt to this new setting. Initial baselines on the platform demonstrate that agents trained in large populations explore more and learn a progression of skills. We raise other more difficult problems such as many-team cooperation as open research questions which Neural MMO is well-suited to answer. Finally, we discuss current limitations of the platform, potential mitigations, and plans for continued development.

Recent trends in test-time scaling for reasoning models (e.g., OpenAI o1, DeepSeek-R1) have led to remarkable improvements through long Chain-of-Thought (CoT). However, existing benchmarks mainly focus on immediate, single-horizon tasks, failing to adequately evaluate models' ability to understand and respond to complex, long-horizon scenarios. To address this incomplete evaluation of Large Reasoning Models (LRMs), we propose R-HORIZON, a method designed to stimulate long-horizon reasoning behaviors in LRMs through query composition. Based on R-HORIZON, we construct a long-horizon reasoning benchmark, comprising complex multi-step reasoning tasks with interdependent problems that span long reasoning horizons. Through comprehensive evaluation of LRMs using the R-HORIZON benchmark, we find that even the most advanced LRMs suffer significant performance degradation. Our analysis reveals that LRMs exhibit limited effective reasoning length and struggle to allocate thinking budget across multiple problems appropriately. Recognizing these limitations, we use R-HORIZON to construct long-horizon reasoning data for reinforcement learning with verified rewards (RLVR). Compared to training with single-horizon data, RLVR with R-HORIZON not only substantially improves performance on the multi-horizon reasoning tasks, but also promotes accuracy on standard reasoning tasks, with an increase of 7.5 on AIME2024. These results position R-HORIZON as a scalable, controllable, and low-cost paradigm for enhancing and evaluating the long-horizon reasoning capabilities of LRMs.

StarCraft II is one of the most challenging simulated reinforcement learning environments; it is partially observable, stochastic, multi-agent, and mastering StarCraft II requires strategic planning over long time horizons with real-time low-level execution. It also has an active professional competitive scene. StarCraft II is uniquely suited for advancing offline RL algorithms, both because of its challenging nature and because Blizzard has released a massive dataset of millions of StarCraft II games played by human players. This paper leverages that and establishes a benchmark, called AlphaStar Unplugged, introducing unprecedented challenges for offline reinforcement learning. We define a dataset (a subset of Blizzard's release), tools standardizing an API for machine learning methods, and an evaluation protocol. We also present baseline agents, including behavior cloning, offline variants of actor-critic and MuZero. We improve the state of the art of agents using only offline data, and we achieve 90% win rate against previously published AlphaStar behavior cloning agent.

We present Agent S, an open agentic framework that enables autonomous interaction with computers through a Graphical User Interface (GUI), aimed at transforming human-computer interaction by automating complex, multi-step tasks. Agent S aims to address three key challenges in automating computer tasks: acquiring domain-specific knowledge, planning over long task horizons, and handling dynamic, non-uniform interfaces. To this end, Agent S introduces experience-augmented hierarchical planning, which learns from external knowledge search and internal experience retrieval at multiple levels, facilitating efficient task planning and subtask execution. In addition, it employs an Agent-Computer Interface (ACI) to better elicit the reasoning and control capabilities of GUI agents based on Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs). Evaluation on the OSWorld benchmark shows that Agent S outperforms the baseline by 9.37% on success rate (an 83.6% relative improvement) and achieves a new state-of-the-art. Comprehensive analysis highlights the effectiveness of individual components and provides insights for future improvements. Furthermore, Agent S demonstrates broad generalizability to different operating systems on a newly-released WindowsAgentArena benchmark. Code available at https://github.com/simular-ai/Agent-S.

A key aspect of temporal domains is the ability to make predictions multiple time steps into the future, a process known as multi-step forecasting (MSF). At the core of this process is selecting a forecasting strategy, however, with no existing frameworks to map out the space of strategies, practitioners are left with ad-hoc methods for strategy selection. In this work, we propose Stratify, a parameterised framework that addresses multi-step forecasting, unifying existing strategies and introducing novel, improved strategies. We evaluate Stratify on 18 benchmark datasets, five function classes, and short to long forecast horizons (10, 20, 40, 80). In over 84% of 1080 experiments, novel strategies in Stratify improved performance compared to all existing ones. Importantly, we find that no single strategy consistently outperforms others in all task settings, highlighting the need for practitioners explore the Stratify space to carefully search and select forecasting strategies based on task-specific requirements. Our results are the most comprehensive benchmarking of known and novel forecasting strategies. We make code available to reproduce our results.

Surgical future prediction, driven by real-time AI analysis of surgical video, is critical for operating room safety and efficiency. It provides actionable insights into upcoming events, their timing, and risks-enabling better resource allocation, timely instrument readiness, and early warnings for complications (e.g., bleeding, bile duct injury). Despite this need, current surgical AI research focuses on understanding what is happening rather than predicting future events. Existing methods target specific tasks in isolation, lacking unified approaches that span both short-term (action triplets, events) and long-term horizons (remaining surgery duration, phase transitions). These methods rely on coarse-grained supervision while fine-grained surgical action triplets and steps remain underexplored. Furthermore, methods based only on future feature prediction struggle to generalize across different surgical contexts and procedures. We address these limits by reframing surgical future prediction as state-change learning. Rather than forecasting raw observations, our approach classifies state transitions between current and future timesteps. We introduce SurgFUTR, implementing this through a teacher-student architecture. Video clips are compressed into state representations via Sinkhorn-Knopp clustering; the teacher network learns from both current and future clips, while the student network predicts future states from current videos alone, guided by our Action Dynamics (ActDyn) module. We establish SFPBench with five prediction tasks spanning short-term (triplets, events) and long-term (remaining surgery duration, phase and step transitions) horizons. Experiments across four datasets and three procedures show consistent improvements. Cross-procedure transfer validates generalizability.

Language-guided robots performing home and office tasks must navigate in and interact with the world. Grounding language instructions against visual observations and actions to take in an environment is an open challenge. We present Embodied BERT (EmBERT), a transformer-based model which can attend to high-dimensional, multi-modal inputs across long temporal horizons for language-conditioned task completion. Additionally, we bridge the gap between successful object-centric navigation models used for non-interactive agents and the language-guided visual task completion benchmark, ALFRED, by introducing object navigation targets for EmBERT training. We achieve competitive performance on the ALFRED benchmark, and EmBERT marks the first transformer-based model to successfully handle the long-horizon, dense, multi-modal histories of ALFRED, and the first ALFRED model to utilize object-centric navigation targets.

Building agents that generalize across web, desktop, and mobile environments remains an open challenge, as prior systems rely on environment-specific interfaces that limit cross-platform deployment. We introduce Surfer 2, a unified architecture operating purely from visual observations that achieves state-of-the-art performance across all three environments. Surfer 2 integrates hierarchical context management, decoupled planning and execution, and self-verification with adaptive recovery, enabling reliable operation over long task horizons. Our system achieves 97.1% accuracy on WebVoyager, 69.6% on WebArena, 60.1% on OSWorld, and 87.1% on AndroidWorld, outperforming all prior systems without task-specific fine-tuning. With multiple attempts, Surfer 2 exceeds human performance on all benchmarks. These results demonstrate that systematic orchestration amplifies foundation model capabilities and enables general-purpose computer control through visual interaction alone, while calling for a next-generation vision language model to achieve Pareto-optimal cost-efficiency.

Large Language Models (LLMs) today are powerful problem solvers across many domains, and they continue to get stronger as they scale in model size, training set size, and training set quality, as shown by extensive research and experimentation across the industry. Training a frontier model today requires on the order of tens to hundreds of yottaflops, which is a massive investment of time, compute, and energy. Improving pretraining efficiency is therefore essential to enable the next generation of even more capable LLMs. While 8-bit floating point (FP8) training is now widely adopted, transitioning to even narrower precision, such as 4-bit floating point (FP4), could unlock additional improvements in computational speed and resource utilization. However, quantization at this level poses challenges to training stability, convergence, and implementation, notably for large-scale models trained on long token horizons. In this study, we introduce a novel approach for stable and accurate training of large language models (LLMs) using the NVFP4 format. Our method integrates Random Hadamard transforms (RHT) to bound block-level outliers, employs a two-dimensional quantization scheme for consistent representations across both the forward and backward passes, utilizes stochastic rounding for unbiased gradient estimation, and incorporates selective high-precision layers. We validate our approach by training a 12-billion-parameter model on 10 trillion tokens -- the longest publicly documented training run in 4-bit precision to date. Our results show that the model trained with our NVFP4-based pretraining technique achieves training loss and downstream task accuracies comparable to an FP8 baseline. These findings highlight that NVFP4, when combined with our training approach, represents a major step forward in narrow-precision LLM training algorithms.

Multivariate time series forecasting is essential in domains such as finance, transportation, climate, and energy. However, existing patch-based methods typically adopt fixed-length segmentation, overlooking the heterogeneity of local temporal dynamics and the decoding heterogeneity of forecasting. Such designs lose details in information-dense regions, introduce redundancy in stable segments, and fail to capture the distinct complexities of short-term and long-term horizons. We propose TimeMosaic, a forecasting framework that aims to address temporal heterogeneity. TimeMosaic employs adaptive patch embedding to dynamically adjust granularity according to local information density, balancing motif reuse with structural clarity while preserving temporal continuity. In addition, it introduces segment-wise decoding that treats each prediction horizon as a related subtask and adapts to horizon-specific difficulty and information requirements, rather than applying a single uniform decoder. Extensive evaluations on benchmark datasets demonstrate that TimeMosaic delivers consistent improvements over existing methods, and our model trained on the large-scale corpus with 321 billion observations achieves performance competitive with state-of-the-art TSFMs.

Diffusion models have revolutionized generative modeling in continuous domains like image, audio, and video synthesis. However, their iterative sampling process leads to slow generation and inefficient training, challenges that are further exacerbated when incorporating Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) due to sparse rewards and long time horizons. Consistency models address these issues by enabling single-step or efficient multi-step generation, significantly reducing computational costs. In this work, we propose a direct reward optimization framework for applying RLHF to consistency models, incorporating distributional regularization to enhance training stability and prevent reward hacking. We investigate various f-divergences as regularization strategies, striking a balance between reward maximization and model consistency. Unlike policy gradient methods, our approach leverages first-order gradients, making it more efficient and less sensitive to hyperparameter tuning. Empirical results show that our method achieves competitive or superior performance compared to policy gradient based RLHF methods, across various automatic metrics and human evaluation. Additionally, our analysis demonstrates the impact of different regularization techniques in improving model generalization and preventing overfitting.

We reframe scene flow as the task of estimating a continuous space-time ODE that describes motion for an entire observation sequence, represented with a neural prior. Our method, EulerFlow, optimizes this neural prior estimate against several multi-observation reconstruction objectives, enabling high quality scene flow estimation via pure self-supervision on real-world data. EulerFlow works out-of-the-box without tuning across multiple domains, including large-scale autonomous driving scenes and dynamic tabletop settings. Remarkably, EulerFlow produces high quality flow estimates on small, fast moving objects like birds and tennis balls, and exhibits emergent 3D point tracking behavior by solving its estimated ODE over long-time horizons. On the Argoverse 2 2024 Scene Flow Challenge, EulerFlow outperforms all prior art, surpassing the next-best unsupervised method by more than 2.5x, and even exceeding the next-best supervised method by over 10%.

This paper addresses the task of modeling Deformable Linear Objects (DLOs), such as ropes and cables, during dynamic motion over long time horizons. This task presents significant challenges due to the complex dynamics of DLOs. To address these challenges, this paper proposes differentiable Discrete Elastic Rods For deformable linear Objects with Real-time Modeling (DEFORM), a novel framework that combines a differentiable physics-based model with a learning framework to model DLOs accurately and in real-time. The performance of DEFORM is evaluated in an experimental setup involving two industrial robots and a variety of sensors. A comprehensive series of experiments demonstrate the efficacy of DEFORM in terms of accuracy, computational speed, and generalizability when compared to state-of-the-art alternatives. To further demonstrate the utility of DEFORM, this paper integrates it into a perception pipeline and illustrates its superior performance when compared to the state-of-the-art methods while tracking a DLO even in the presence of occlusions. Finally, this paper illustrates the superior performance of DEFORM when compared to state-of-the-art methods when it is applied to perform autonomous planning and control of DLOs. Project page: https://roahmlab.github.io/DEFORM/.

Momentum is known to accelerate the convergence of gradient descent in strongly convex settings without stochastic gradient noise. In stochastic optimization, such as training neural networks, folklore suggests that momentum may help deep learning optimization by reducing the variance of the stochastic gradient update, but previous theoretical analyses do not find momentum to offer any provable acceleration. Theoretical results in this paper clarify the role of momentum in stochastic settings where the learning rate is small and gradient noise is the dominant source of instability, suggesting that SGD with and without momentum behave similarly in the short and long time horizons. Experiments show that momentum indeed has limited benefits for both optimization and generalization in practical training regimes where the optimal learning rate is not very large, including small- to medium-batch training from scratch on ImageNet and fine-tuning language models on downstream tasks.

Model-free reinforcement learning algorithms can compute policy gradients given sampled environment transitions, but require large amounts of data. In contrast, model-based methods can use the learned model to generate new data, but model errors and bias can render learning unstable or suboptimal. In this paper, we present a novel method that combines real-world data and a learned model in order to get the best of both worlds. The core idea is to exploit the real-world data for on-policy predictions and use the learned model only to generalize to different actions. Specifically, we use the data as time-dependent on-policy correction terms on top of a learned model, to retain the ability to generate data without accumulating errors over long prediction horizons. We motivate this method theoretically and show that it counteracts an error term for model-based policy improvement. Experiments on MuJoCo- and PyBullet-benchmarks show that our method can drastically improve existing model-based approaches without introducing additional tuning parameters.

In-context learning, the ability of large language models to perform tasks using only examples provided in the prompt, has recently been adapted for time series forecasting. This paradigm enables zero-shot prediction, where past values serve as context for forecasting future values, making powerful forecasting tools accessible to non-experts and increasing the performance when training data are scarce. Most existing zero-shot forecasting approaches rely on transformer architectures, which, despite their success in language, often fall short of expectations in time series forecasting, where recurrent models like LSTMs frequently have the edge. Conversely, while LSTMs are well-suited for time series modeling due to their state-tracking capabilities, they lack strong in-context learning abilities. We introduce TiRex that closes this gap by leveraging xLSTM, an enhanced LSTM with competitive in-context learning skills. Unlike transformers, state-space models, or parallelizable RNNs such as RWKV, TiRex retains state-tracking, a critical property for long-horizon forecasting. To further facilitate its state-tracking ability, we propose a training-time masking strategy called CPM. TiRex sets a new state of the art in zero-shot time series forecasting on the HuggingFace benchmarks GiftEval and Chronos-ZS, outperforming significantly larger models including TabPFN-TS (Prior Labs), Chronos Bolt (Amazon), TimesFM (Google), and Moirai (Salesforce) across both short- and long-term forecasts.

We present a scalable, bottom-up and intrinsically diverse data collection scheme that can be used for high-level reasoning with long and medium horizons and that has 2.2x higher throughput compared to traditional narrow top-down step-by-step collection. We collect realistic data by performing any user requests within the entirety of 3 office buildings and using multiple robot and human embodiments. With this data, we show that models trained on all embodiments perform better than ones trained on the robot data only, even when evaluated solely on robot episodes. We find that for a fixed collection budget it is beneficial to take advantage of cheaper human collection along with robot collection. We release a large and highly diverse (29,520 unique instructions) dataset dubbed RoboVQA containing 829,502 (video, text) pairs for robotics-focused visual question answering. We also demonstrate how evaluating real robot experiments with an intervention mechanism enables performing tasks to completion, making it deployable with human oversight even if imperfect while also providing a single performance metric. We demonstrate a single video-conditioned model named RoboVQA-VideoCoCa trained on our dataset that is capable of performing a variety of grounded high-level reasoning tasks in broad realistic settings with a cognitive intervention rate 46% lower than the zero-shot state of the art visual language model (VLM) baseline and is able to guide real robots through long-horizon tasks. The performance gap with zero-shot state-of-the-art models indicates that a lot of grounded data remains to be collected for real-world deployment, emphasizing the critical need for scalable data collection approaches. Finally, we show that video VLMs significantly outperform single-image VLMs with an average error rate reduction of 19% across all VQA tasks. Data and videos available at https://robovqa.github.io

Foundation models have transformed machine learning for language and vision, but achieving comparable impact in physical simulation remains a challenge. Data heterogeneity and unstable long-term dynamics inhibit learning from sufficiently diverse dynamics, while varying resolutions and dimensionalities challenge efficient training on modern hardware. Through empirical and theoretical analysis, we incorporate new approaches to mitigate these obstacles, including a harmonic-analysis-based stabilization method, load-balanced distributed 2D and 3D training strategies, and compute-adaptive tokenization. Using these tools, we develop Walrus, a transformer-based foundation model developed primarily for fluid-like continuum dynamics. Walrus is pretrained on nineteen diverse scenarios spanning astrophysics, geoscience, rheology, plasma physics, acoustics, and classical fluids. Experiments show that Walrus outperforms prior foundation models on both short and long term prediction horizons on downstream tasks and across the breadth of pretraining data, while ablation studies confirm the value of our contributions to forecast stability, training throughput, and transfer performance over conventional approaches. Code and weights are released for community use.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models have shown remarkable capabilities in robotic manipulation, but their performance is sensitive to the action chunk length used during training, termed horizon. Our empirical study reveals an inherent trade-off: longer horizons provide stronger global foresight but degrade fine-grained accuracy, while shorter ones sharpen local control yet struggle on long-term tasks, implying fixed choice of single horizons being suboptimal. To mitigate the trade-off, we propose a mixture of horizons (MoH) strategy. MoH rearranges the action chunk into several segments with different horizons, processes them in parallel with a shared action transformer, and fuses outputs with a light linear gate. It has three appealing benefits. 1) MoH exploits long-term foresight and short-term precision jointly within a single model, improving both performance and generalizability to complex tasks. 2) MoH is plug-and-play for full-attention action modules with minimal training or inference overhead. 3) MoH enables dynamic inference with adaptive horizons, which selects stable actions through cross-horizon consensus, achieving 2.5times higher throughput than baselines while preserving superior performance. Extensive experiments over flow-based policies π_0, π_{0.5}, and one-step regression policy π_{reg} demonstrate that MoH yields consistent and significant gains on both simulations and real-world tasks. Notably, under mixed-task setting, π_{0.5} with MoH reaches a new state-of-the-art with 99% average success rate on LIBERO after only 30k training iterations. Project page: https://github.com/Timsty1/MixtureOfHorizons

Autoregressive video world models predict future visual observations conditioned on actions. While effective over short horizons, these models often struggle with long-horizon generation, as small prediction errors accumulate over time. Prior methods alleviate this by introducing pre-trained teacher models and sequence-level distribution matching, which incur additional computational cost and fail to prevent error propagation beyond the training horizon. In this work, we propose LIVE, a Long-horizon Interactive Video world modEl that enforces bounded error accumulation via a novel cycle-consistency objective, thereby eliminating the need for teacher-based distillation. Specifically, LIVE first performs a forward rollout from ground-truth frames and then applies a reverse generation process to reconstruct the initial state. The diffusion loss is subsequently computed on the reconstructed terminal state, providing an explicit constraint on long-horizon error propagation. Moreover, we provide an unified view that encompasses different approaches and introduce progressive training curriculum to stabilize training. Experiments demonstrate that LIVE achieves state-of-the-art performance on long-horizon benchmarks, generating stable, high-quality videos far beyond training rollout lengths.

Real-world multivariate time series can exhibit intricate multi-scale structures, including global trends, local periodicities, and non-stationary regimes, which makes long-horizon forecasting challenging. Although sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) approaches improve scalability and specialization, they typically rely on homogeneous MLP experts that poorly capture the diverse temporal dynamics of time series data. We address these limitations with MoHETS, an encoder-only Transformer that integrates sparse Mixture-of-Heterogeneous-Experts (MoHE) layers. MoHE routes temporal patches to a small subset of expert networks, combining a shared depthwise-convolution expert for sequence-level continuity with routed Fourier-based experts for patch-level periodic structures. MoHETS further improves robustness to non-stationary dynamics by incorporating exogenous information via cross-attention over covariate patch embeddings. Finally, we replace parameter-heavy linear projection heads with a lightweight convolutional patch decoder, improving parameter efficiency, reducing training instability, and allowing a single model to generalize across arbitrary forecast horizons. We validate across seven multivariate benchmarks and multiple horizons, with MoHETS consistently achieving state-of-the-art performance, reducing the average MSE by 12% compared to strong recent baselines, demonstrating effective heterogeneous specialization for long-term forecasting.

Popular offline reinforcement learning (RL) methods rely on conservatism, either by penalizing out-of-dataset actions or by restricting rollout horizons. In this work, we question the universality of this principle and instead revisit a complementary one: a Bayesian perspective. Rather than enforcing conservatism, the Bayesian approach tackles epistemic uncertainty in offline data by modeling a posterior distribution over plausible world models and training a history-dependent agent to maximize expected rewards, enabling test-time generalization. We first illustrate, in a bandit setting, that Bayesianism excels on low-quality datasets where conservatism fails. We then scale this principle to realistic tasks and show that long-horizon planning is critical for reducing value overestimation once conservatism is removed. To make this feasible, we introduce key design choices for performing and learning from long-horizon rollouts while controlling compounding errors. These yield our algorithm, NEUBAY, grounded in the neutral Bayesian principle. On D4RL and NeoRL benchmarks, NEUBAY generally matches or surpasses leading conservative algorithms, achieving new state-of-the-art on 7 datasets. Notably, it succeeds with rollout horizons of several hundred steps, contrary to dominant practice. Finally, we characterize datasets by quality and coverage, showing when NEUBAY is preferable to conservative methods. Together, we argue NEUBAY lays the foundation for a new practical direction in offline and model-based RL.

Real-world robotic tasks stretch over extended horizons and encompass multiple stages. Learning long-horizon manipulation tasks, however, is a long-standing challenge, and demands decomposing the overarching task into several manageable subtasks to facilitate policy learning and generalization to unseen tasks. Prior task decomposition methods require task-specific knowledge, are computationally intensive, and cannot readily be applied to new tasks. To address these shortcomings, we propose Universal Visual Decomposer (UVD), an off-the-shelf task decomposition method for visual long horizon manipulation using pre-trained visual representations designed for robotic control. At a high level, UVD discovers subgoals by detecting phase shifts in the embedding space of the pre-trained representation. Operating purely on visual demonstrations without auxiliary information, UVD can effectively extract visual subgoals embedded in the videos, while incurring zero additional training cost on top of standard visuomotor policy training. Goal-conditioned policies learned with UVD-discovered subgoals exhibit significantly improved compositional generalization at test time to unseen tasks. Furthermore, UVD-discovered subgoals can be used to construct goal-based reward shaping that jump-starts temporally extended exploration for reinforcement learning. We extensively evaluate UVD on both simulation and real-world tasks, and in all cases, UVD substantially outperforms baselines across imitation and reinforcement learning settings on in-domain and out-of-domain task sequences alike, validating the clear advantage of automated visual task decomposition within the simple, compact UVD framework.

Despite rapid progress on AI benchmarks, the real-world meaning of benchmark performance remains unclear. To quantify the capabilities of AI systems in terms of human capabilities, we propose a new metric: 50%-task-completion time horizon. This is the time humans typically take to complete tasks that AI models can complete with 50% success rate. We first timed humans with relevant domain expertise on a combination of RE-Bench, HCAST, and 66 novel shorter tasks. On these tasks, current frontier AI models such as Claude 3.7 Sonnet have a 50% time horizon of around 50 minutes. Furthermore, frontier AI time horizon has been doubling approximately every seven months since 2019, though the trend may have accelerated in 2024. The increase in AI models' time horizons seems to be primarily driven by greater reliability and ability to adapt to mistakes, combined with better logical reasoning and tool use capabilities. We discuss the limitations of our results -- including their degree of external validity -- and the implications of increased autonomy for dangerous capabilities. If these results generalize to real-world software tasks, extrapolation of this trend predicts that within 5 years, AI systems will be capable of automating many software tasks that currently take humans a month.

Smaller-scale Vision-Langauge Models (VLMs) often claim to perform on par with larger models in general-domain visual grounding and question-answering benchmarks while offering advantages in computational efficiency and storage. However, their ability to handle rare objects, which fall into the long tail of data distributions, is less understood. To rigorously evaluate this aspect, we introduce the "Uncontextualized Uncommon Objects" (UOUO) benchmark. This benchmark focuses on systematically testing VLMs with both large and small parameter counts on rare and specialized objects. Our comprehensive analysis reveals that while smaller VLMs maintain competitive performance on common datasets, they significantly underperform on tasks involving uncommon objects. We also propose an advanced, scalable pipeline for data collection and cleaning, ensuring the UOUO benchmark provides high-quality, challenging instances. These findings highlight the need to consider long-tail distributions when assessing the true capabilities of VLMs.

Video diffusion models have recently shown promise for world modeling through autoregressive frame prediction conditioned on actions. However, they struggle to maintain long-term memory due to the high computational cost associated with processing extended sequences in attention layers. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel architecture leveraging state-space models (SSMs) to extend temporal memory without compromising computational efficiency. Unlike previous approaches that retrofit SSMs for non-causal vision tasks, our method fully exploits the inherent advantages of SSMs in causal sequence modeling. Central to our design is a block-wise SSM scanning scheme, which strategically trades off spatial consistency for extended temporal memory, combined with dense local attention to ensure coherence between consecutive frames. We evaluate the long-term memory capabilities of our model through spatial retrieval and reasoning tasks over extended horizons. Experiments on Memory Maze and Minecraft datasets demonstrate that our approach surpasses baselines in preserving long-range memory, while maintaining practical inference speeds suitable for interactive applications.

Large language models excel at short-horizon reasoning tasks, but performance drops as reasoning horizon lengths increase. Existing approaches to combat this rely on inference-time scaffolding or costly step-level supervision, neither of which scales easily. In this work, we introduce a scalable method to bootstrap long-horizon reasoning capabilities using only existing, abundant short-horizon data. Our approach synthetically composes simple problems into complex, multi-step dependency chains of arbitrary length. We train models on this data using outcome-only rewards under a curriculum that automatically increases in complexity, allowing RL training to be scaled much further without saturating. Empirically, our method generalizes remarkably well: curriculum training on composed 6th-grade level math problems (GSM8K) boosts accuracy on longer, competition-level benchmarks (GSM-Symbolic, MATH-500, AIME) by up to 2.06x. It also transfers significantly to diverse out-of-distribution ReasoningGym domains and long-context benchmarks, indicating broader generalization. Importantly, our long-horizon improvements are significantly higher than baselines even at high pass@k, showing that models can learn new reasoning paths under RL. Theoretically, we show that curriculum RL with outcome rewards achieves an exponential improvement in sample complexity over full-horizon training, providing training signal comparable to dense supervision. h1 therefore introduces an efficient path towards scaling RL for long-horizon problems using only existing data.

Recent advances in vision-language models (VLMs) have enabled instruction-conditioned robotic systems with improved generalization. However, most existing work focuses on reactive System 1 policies, underutilizing VLMs' strengths in semantic reasoning and long-horizon planning. These System 2 capabilities-characterized by deliberative, goal-directed thinking-remain under explored due to the limited temporal scale and structural complexity of current benchmarks. To address this gap, we introduce RoboCerebra, a benchmark for evaluating high-level reasoning in long-horizon robotic manipulation. RoboCerebra includes: (1) a large-scale simulation dataset with extended task horizons and diverse subtask sequences in household environments; (2) a hierarchical framework combining a high-level VLM planner with a low-level vision-language-action (VLA) controller; and (3) an evaluation protocol targeting planning, reflection, and memory through structured System 1-System 2 interaction. The dataset is constructed via a top-down pipeline, where GPT generates task instructions and decomposes them into subtask sequences. Human operators execute the subtasks in simulation, yielding high-quality trajectories with dynamic object variations. Compared to prior benchmarks, RoboCerebra features significantly longer action sequences and denser annotations. We further benchmark state-of-the-art VLMs as System 2 modules and analyze their performance across key cognitive dimensions, advancing the development of more capable and generalizable robotic planners.

Forecasting time series data is a critical area of research with applications spanning from stock prices to early epidemic prediction. While numerous statistical and machine learning methods have been proposed, real-life prediction problems often require hybrid solutions that bridge classical forecasting approaches and modern neural network models. In this study, we introduce the Probabilistic AutoRegressive Neural Networks (PARNN), capable of handling complex time series data exhibiting non-stationarity, nonlinearity, non-seasonality, long-range dependence, and chaotic patterns. PARNN is constructed by improving autoregressive neural networks (ARNN) using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) feedback error, combining the explainability, scalability, and "white-box-like" prediction behavior of both models. Notably, the PARNN model provides uncertainty quantification through prediction intervals, setting it apart from advanced deep learning tools. Through comprehensive computational experiments, we evaluate the performance of PARNN against standard statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models, including Transformers, NBeats, and DeepAR. Diverse real-world datasets from macroeconomics, tourism, epidemiology, and other domains are employed for short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecasting evaluations. Our results demonstrate the superiority of PARNN across various forecast horizons, surpassing the state-of-the-art forecasters. The proposed PARNN model offers a valuable hybrid solution for accurate long-range forecasting. By effectively capturing the complexities present in time series data, it outperforms existing methods in terms of accuracy and reliability. The ability to quantify uncertainty through prediction intervals further enhances the model's usefulness in decision-making processes.

Long-horizon Flexible Job-Shop Scheduling~(FJSP) presents a formidable combinatorial challenge due to complex, interdependent decisions spanning extended time horizons. While learning-based Rolling Horizon Optimization~(RHO) has emerged as a promising paradigm to accelerate solving by identifying and fixing invariant operations, its effectiveness is hindered by the structural complexity of FJSP. Existing methods often fail to capture intricate graph-structured dependencies and ignore the asymmetric costs of prediction errors, in which misclassifying critical-path operations is significantly more detrimental than misclassifying non-critical ones. Furthermore, dynamic shifts in predictive confidence during the rolling process make static pruning thresholds inadequate. To address these limitations, we propose Graph-RHO, a novel critical-path-aware graph-based RHO framework. First, we introduce a topology-aware heterogeneous graph network that encodes subproblems as operation-machine graphs with multi-relational edges, leveraging edge-feature-aware message passing to predict operation stability. Second, we incorporate a critical-path-aware mechanism that injects inductive biases during training to distinguish highly sensitive bottleneck operations from robust ones. Third, we devise an adaptive thresholding strategy that dynamically calibrates decision boundaries based on online uncertainty estimation to align model predictions with the solver's search space. Extensive experiments on standard benchmarks demonstrate that Graph-RHO establishes a new state of the art in solution quality and computational efficiency. Remarkably, it exhibits exceptional zero-shot generalization, reducing solve time by over 30\% on large-scale instances (2000 operations) while achieving superior solution quality. Our code is available https://github.com/IntelliSensing/Graph-RHO{here}.

Precipitation nowcasting is critical for disaster mitigation and aviation safety. However, radar-only models frequently suffer from a lack of large-scale atmospheric context, leading to performance degradation at longer lead times. While integrating meteorological variables predicted by weather foundation models offers a potential remedy, existing architectures fail to reconcile the profound representational heterogeneities between radar imagery and meteorological data. To bridge this gap, we propose PW-FouCast, a novel frequency-domain fusion framework that leverages Pangu-Weather forecasts as spectral priors within a Fourier-based backbone. Our architecture introduces three key innovations: (i) Pangu-Weather-guided Frequency Modulation to align spectral magnitudes and phases with meteorological priors; (ii) Frequency Memory to correct phase discrepancies and preserve temporal evolution; and (iii) Inverted Frequency Attention to reconstruct high-frequency details typically lost in spectral filtering. Extensive experiments on the SEVIR and MeteoNet benchmarks demonstrate that PW-FouCast achieves state-of-the-art performance, effectively extending the reliable forecast horizon while maintaining structural fidelity. Our code is available at https://github.com/Onemissed/PW-FouCast.

Autoregressive video diffusion models have emerged as a scalable paradigm for long video generation. However, they often suffer from severe extrapolation failure, where rapid error accumulation leads to significant temporal degradation when extending beyond training horizons. We identify that this failure primarily stems from the spectral bias of 3D positional embeddings and the lack of dynamic priors in noise sampling. To address these issues, we propose FLEX (Frequency-aware Length EXtension), a training-free inference-time framework that bridges the gap between short-term training and long-term inference. FLEX introduces Frequency-aware RoPE Modulation to adaptively interpolate under-trained low-frequency components while extrapolating high-frequency ones to preserve multi-scale temporal discriminability. This is integrated with Antiphase Noise Sampling (ANS) to inject high-frequency dynamic priors and Inference-only Attention Sink to anchor global structure. Extensive evaluations on VBench demonstrate that FLEX significantly outperforms state-of-the-art models at 6x extrapolation (30s duration) and matches the performance of long-video fine-tuned baselines at 12x scale (60s duration). As a plug-and-play augmentation, FLEX seamlessly integrates into existing inference pipelines for horizon extension. It effectively pushes the generation limits of models such as LongLive, supporting consistent and dynamic video synthesis at a 4-minute scale. Project page is available at https://ga-lee.github.io/FLEX_demo.

Feedforward geometric foundation models achieve strong short-window reconstruction, yet scaling them to minutes-long videos is bottlenecked by quadratic attention complexity or limited effective memory in recurrent designs. We present LoGeR (Long-context Geometric Reconstruction), a novel architecture that scales dense 3D reconstruction to extremely long sequences without post-optimization. LoGeR processes video streams in chunks, leveraging strong bidirectional priors for high-fidelity intra-chunk reasoning. To manage the critical challenge of coherence across chunk boundaries, we propose a learning-based hybrid memory module. This dual-component system combines a parametric Test-Time Training (TTT) memory to anchor the global coordinate frame and prevent scale drift, alongside a non-parametric Sliding Window Attention (SWA) mechanism to preserve uncompressed context for high-precision adjacent alignment. Remarkably, this memory architecture enables LoGeR to be trained on sequences of 128 frames, and generalize up to thousands of frames during inference. Evaluated across standard benchmarks and a newly repurposed VBR dataset with sequences of up to 19k frames, LoGeR substantially outperforms prior state-of-the-art feedforward methods--reducing ATE on KITTI by over 74%--and achieves robust, globally consistent reconstruction over unprecedented horizons.

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has catalyzed the development of autonomous agents capable of navigating complex environments. However, existing evaluations primarily adopt a deductive paradigm, where agents execute tasks based on explicitly provided rules and static goals, often within limited planning horizons. Crucially, this neglects the inductive necessity for agents to discover latent transition laws from experience autonomously, which is the cornerstone for enabling agentic foresight and sustaining strategic coherence. To bridge this gap, we introduce OdysseyArena, which re-centers agent evaluation on long-horizon, active, and inductive interactions. We formalize and instantiate four primitives, translating abstract transition dynamics into concrete interactive environments. Building upon this, we establish OdysseyArena-Lite for standardized benchmarking, providing a set of 120 tasks to measure an agent's inductive efficiency and long-horizon discovery. Pushing further, we introduce OdysseyArena-Challenge to stress-test agent stability across extreme interaction horizons (e.g., > 200 steps). Extensive experiments on 15+ leading LLMs reveal that even frontier models exhibit a deficiency in inductive scenarios, identifying a critical bottleneck in the pursuit of autonomous discovery in complex environments. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/xufangzhi/Odyssey-Arena

Large Language Models (LLMs) are deployed as autonomous agents in increasingly complex applications, where enabling long-horizon memory is critical for achieving strong performance. However, a significant gap exists between practical applications and current evaluation standards for agent memory: existing benchmarks primarily focus on dialogue-centric, human-agent interactions. In reality, agent memory consists of a continuous stream of agent-environment interactions that are primarily composed of machine-generated representations. To bridge this gap, we introduce AMA-Bench (Agent Memory with Any length), which evaluates long-horizon memory for LLMs in real agentic applications. It features two key components: (1) a set of real-world agentic trajectories across representative agentic applications, paired with expert-curated QA, and (2) a set of synthetic agentic trajectories that scale to arbitrary horizons, paired with rule-based QA. Our comprehensive study shows that existing memory systems underperform on AMA-Bench primarily because they lack causality and objective information and are constrained by the lossy nature of similarity-based retrieval employed by many memory systems. To address these limitations, we propose AMA-Agent, an effective memory system featuring a causality graph and tool-augmented retrieval. Our results demonstrate that AMA-Agent achieves 57.22% average accuracy on AMA-Bench, surpassing the strongest memory system baselines by 11.16%.

Autoregressive (AR) diffusion enables streaming, interactive long-video generation by producing frames causally, yet maintaining coherence over minute-scale horizons remains challenging due to accumulated errors, motion drift, and content repetition. We approach this problem from a memory perspective, treating video synthesis as a recurrent dynamical process that requires coordinated short- and long-term context. We propose VideoSSM, a Long Video Model that unifies AR diffusion with a hybrid state-space memory. The state-space model (SSM) serves as an evolving global memory of scene dynamics across the entire sequence, while a context window provides local memory for motion cues and fine details. This hybrid design preserves global consistency without frozen, repetitive patterns, supports prompt-adaptive interaction, and scales in linear time with sequence length. Experiments on short- and long-range benchmarks demonstrate state-of-the-art temporal consistency and motion stability among autoregressive video generator especially at minute-scale horizons, enabling content diversity and interactive prompt-based control, thereby establishing a scalable, memory-aware framework for long video generation.

As language models are increasingly deployed for complex autonomous tasks, their ability to reason accurately over longer horizons becomes critical. An essential component of this ability is planning and managing a long, complex chain-of-thought (CoT). We introduce LongCoT, a scalable benchmark of 2,500 expert-designed problems spanning chemistry, mathematics, computer science, chess, and logic to isolate and directly measure the long-horizon CoT reasoning capabilities of frontier models. Problems consist of a short input with a verifiable answer; solving them requires navigating a graph of interdependent steps that span tens to hundreds of thousands of reasoning tokens. Each local step is individually tractable for frontier models, so failures reflect long-horizon reasoning limitations. At release, the best models achieve <10% accuracy (GPT 5.2: 9.8%; Gemini 3 Pro: 6.1%) on LongCoT, revealing a substantial gap in current capabilities. Overall, LongCoT provides a rigorous measure of long-horizon reasoning, tracking the ability of frontier models to reason reliably over extended periods.

Recent advances in coding agents suggest rapid progress toward autonomous software development, yet existing benchmarks fail to rigorously evaluate the long-horizon capabilities required to build complete software systems. Most prior evaluations focus on localized code generation, scaffolded completion, or short-term repair tasks, leaving open the question of whether agents can sustain coherent reasoning, planning, and execution over the extended horizons demanded by real-world repository construction. To address this gap, we present NL2Repo Bench, a benchmark explicitly designed to evaluate the long-horizon repository generation ability of coding agents. Given only a single natural-language requirements document and an empty workspace, agents must autonomously design the architecture, manage dependencies, implement multi-module logic, and produce a fully installable Python library. Our experiments across state-of-the-art open- and closed-source models reveal that long-horizon repository generation remains largely unsolved: even the strongest agents achieve below 40% average test pass rates and rarely complete an entire repository correctly. Detailed analysis uncovers fundamental long-horizon failure modes, including premature termination, loss of global coherence, fragile cross-file dependencies, and inadequate planning over hundreds of interaction steps. NL2Repo Bench establishes a rigorous, verifiable testbed for measuring sustained agentic competence and highlights long-horizon reasoning as a central bottleneck for the next generation of autonomous coding agents.

Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) is central to aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) in reasoning tasks with verifiable rewards. However, standard token-level PPO struggles in this setting due to the instability of temporal credit assignment over long Chain-of-Thought (CoT) horizons and the prohibitive memory cost of the value model. While critic-free alternatives like GRPO mitigate these issues, they incur significant computational overhead by requiring multiple samples for baseline estimation, severely limiting training throughput. In this paper, we introduce Sequence-Level PPO (SPPO), a scalable algorithm that harmonizes the sample efficiency of PPO with the stability of outcome-based updates. SPPO reformulates the reasoning process as a Sequence-Level Contextual Bandit problem, employing a decoupled scalar value function to derive low-variance advantage signals without multi-sampling. Extensive experiments on mathematical benchmarks demonstrate that SPPO significantly surpasses standard PPO and matches the performance of computation-heavy group-based methods, offering a resource-efficient framework for aligning reasoning LLMs.

Long-term forecasting of chaotic systems from short-term observations remains a fundamental and underexplored challenge due to the intrinsic sensitivity to initial conditions and the complex geometry of strange attractors. Existing approaches often rely on long-term training data or focus on short-term sequence correlations, struggling to maintain predictive stability and dynamical coherence over extended horizons. We propose PhyxMamba, a novel framework that integrates a Mamba-based state-space model with physics-informed principles to capture the underlying dynamics of chaotic systems. By reconstructing the attractor manifold from brief observations using time-delay embeddings, PhyxMamba extracts global dynamical features essential for accurate forecasting. Our generative training scheme enables Mamba to replicate the physical process, augmented by multi-token prediction and attractor geometry regularization for physical constraints, enhancing prediction accuracy and preserving key statistical invariants. Extensive evaluations on diverse simulated and real-world chaotic systems demonstrate that PhyxMamba delivers superior long-term forecasting and faithfully captures essential dynamical invariants from short-term data. This framework opens new avenues for reliably predicting chaotic systems under observation-scarce conditions, with broad implications across climate science, neuroscience, epidemiology, and beyond. Our code is open-source at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/PhyxMamba.

"A common decision made by people, whether healthy or with health conditions, is choosing meals like breakfast, lunch, and dinner, comprising combinations of foods for appetizer, main course, side dishes, desserts, and beverages. Often, this decision involves tradeoffs between nutritious choices (e.g., salt and sugar levels, nutrition content) and convenience (e.g., cost and accessibility, cuisine type, food source type). We present a data-driven solution for meal recommendations that considers customizable meal configurations and time horizons. This solution balances user preferences while accounting for food constituents and cooking processes. Our contributions include introducing goodness measures, a recipe conversion method from text to the recently introduced multimodal rich recipe representation (R3) format, learning methods using contextual bandits that show promising preliminary results, and the prototype, usage-inspired, BEACON system."

RNN-based methods have faced challenges in the Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) domain when dealing with excessively long look-back windows and forecast horizons. Consequently, the dominance in this domain has shifted towards Transformer, MLP, and CNN approaches. The substantial number of recurrent iterations are the fundamental reasons behind the limitations of RNNs in LTSF. To address these issues, we propose two novel strategies to reduce the number of iterations in RNNs for LTSF tasks: Segment-wise Iterations and Parallel Multi-step Forecasting (PMF). RNNs that combine these strategies, namely SegRNN, significantly reduce the required recurrent iterations for LTSF, resulting in notable improvements in forecast accuracy and inference speed. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SegRNN not only outperforms SOTA Transformer-based models but also reduces runtime and memory usage by more than 78%. These achievements provide strong evidence that RNNs continue to excel in LTSF tasks and encourage further exploration of this domain with more RNN-based approaches. The source code is coming soon.

We propose Infinite-World, a robust interactive world model capable of maintaining coherent visual memory over 1000+ frames in complex real-world environments. While existing world models can be efficiently optimized on synthetic data with perfect ground-truth, they lack an effective training paradigm for real-world videos due to noisy pose estimations and the scarcity of viewpoint revisits. To bridge this gap, we first introduce a Hierarchical Pose-free Memory Compressor (HPMC) that recursively distills historical latents into a fixed-budget representation. By jointly optimizing the compressor with the generative backbone, HPMC enables the model to autonomously anchor generations in the distant past with bounded computational cost, eliminating the need for explicit geometric priors. Second, we propose an Uncertainty-aware Action Labeling module that discretizes continuous motion into a tri-state logic. This strategy maximizes the utilization of raw video data while shielding the deterministic action space from being corrupted by noisy trajectories, ensuring robust action-response learning. Furthermore, guided by insights from a pilot toy study, we employ a Revisit-Dense Finetuning Strategy using a compact, 30-minute dataset to efficiently activate the model's long-range loop-closure capabilities. Extensive experiments, including objective metrics and user studies, demonstrate that Infinite-World achieves superior performance in visual quality, action controllability, and spatial consistency.

Recent advances in AI-assisted programming have empowered agents to execute complex workflows via command-line interfaces, however, existing benchmarks are limited by short task horizons, data contamination from GitHub scraping, and a lack of fine-grained evaluation metrics, fail to rigorously evaluate the long-horizon planning and execution capabilities essential for realistic software engineering. To address these gaps, we introduce LongCLI-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate agentic capabilities across long-horizon, realistic tasks. We curated 20 high-quality, long-horizon tasks from over 1,000 computer science assignments and real-world workflows, covering four engineering categories: from scratch, feature addition, bug fixing, and refactoring. We propose a dual-set testing protocol for LongCLI-Bench, which measures requirement fulfillment (fail-to-pass) and regression avoidance (pass-to-pass), and incorporates step-level scoring to pinpoint execution failures. Extensive experiments reveal that even state-of-the-art agents achieve pass rates below 20% in LongCLI-Bench. Step-level analysis further indicates that the majority of tasks stall at less than 30% completion, highlighting that critical failures often occur in the early stages. Although self-correction offers marginal gains, human-agent collaboration through plan injection and interactive guidance yields significantly higher improvements. These results highlight that future research must emphasize the development of synergistic human-agent workflows alongside advances in agents' planning and execution capabilities to overcome key challenges in long-horizon task performance.

Vision-and-Language Navigation (VLN) in large-scale urban environments requires embodied agents to ground linguistic instructions in complex scenes and recall relevant experiences over extended time horizons. Prior modular pipelines offer interpretability but lack unified memory, while end-to-end (M)LLM agents excel at fusing vision and language yet remain constrained by fixed context windows and implicit spatial reasoning. We introduce Mem4Nav, a hierarchical spatial-cognition long-short memory system that can augment any VLN backbone. Mem4Nav fuses a sparse octree for fine-grained voxel indexing with a semantic topology graph for high-level landmark connectivity, storing both in trainable memory tokens embedded via a reversible Transformer. Long-term memory (LTM) compresses and retains historical observations at both octree and graph nodes, while short-term memory (STM) caches recent multimodal entries in relative coordinates for real-time obstacle avoidance and local planning. At each step, STM retrieval sharply prunes dynamic context, and, when deeper history is needed, LTM tokens are decoded losslessly to reconstruct past embeddings. Evaluated on Touchdown and Map2Seq across three backbones (modular, state-of-the-art VLN with prompt-based LLM, and state-of-the-art VLN with strided-attention MLLM), Mem4Nav yields 7-13 pp gains in Task Completion, sufficient SPD reduction, and >10 pp nDTW improvement. Ablations confirm the indispensability of both the hierarchical map and dual memory modules. Our codes are open-sourced via https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/Mem4Nav.

The core challenge of de novo protein design lies in creating proteins with specific functions or properties, guided by certain conditions. Current models explore to generate protein using structural and evolutionary guidance, which only provide indirect conditions concerning functions and properties. However, textual annotations of proteins, especially the annotations for protein domains, which directly describe the protein's high-level functionalities, properties, and their correlation with target amino acid sequences, remain unexplored in the context of protein design tasks. In this paper, we propose Protein-Annotation Alignment Generation, PAAG, a multi-modality protein design framework that integrates the textual annotations extracted from protein database for controllable generation in sequence space. Specifically, within a multi-level alignment module, PAAG can explicitly generate proteins containing specific domains conditioned on the corresponding domain annotations, and can even design novel proteins with flexible combinations of different kinds of annotations. Our experimental results underscore the superiority of the aligned protein representations from PAAG over 7 prediction tasks. Furthermore, PAAG demonstrates a significant increase in generation success rate (24.7% vs 4.7% in zinc finger, and 54.3% vs 22.0% in the immunoglobulin domain) in comparison to the existing model. We anticipate that PAAG will broaden the horizons of protein design by leveraging the knowledge from between textual annotation and proteins.

Interactive long video generation requires prompt switching to introduce new subjects or events, while maintaining perceptual fidelity and coherent motion over extended horizons. Recent distilled streaming video diffusion models reuse a rolling KV cache for long-range generation, enabling prompt-switch interaction through re-cache at each switch. However, existing streaming methods still exhibit progressive quality degradation and weakened motion dynamics. We identify two failure modes specific to interactive streaming generation: (i) at each prompt switch, current cache maintenance cannot simultaneously retain KV-based semantic context and recent latent cues, resulting in weak boundary conditioning and reduced perceptual quality; and (ii) during distillation, unbounded time indexing induces a positional distribution shift from the pretrained backbone's bounded RoPE regime, weakening pretrained motion priors and long-horizon motion retention. To address these issues, we propose Anchor Forcing, a cache-centric framework with two designs. First, an anchor-guided re-cache mechanism stores KV states in anchor caches and warm-starts re-cache from these anchors at each prompt switch, reducing post-switch evidence loss and stabilizing perceptual quality. Second, a tri-region RoPE with region-specific reference origins, together with RoPE re-alignment distillation, reconciles unbounded streaming indices with the pretrained RoPE regime to better retain motion priors. Experiments on long videos show that our method improves perceptual quality and motion metrics over prior streaming baselines in interactive settings. Project page: https://github.com/vivoCameraResearch/Anchor-Forcing

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models based on flow matching -- such as pi0, pi0.5, and SmolVLA -- achieve state-of-the-art generalist robotic manipulation, yet their iterative denoising, typically 10 ODE steps, introduces substantial latency: on a modern GPU, denoising alone accounts for 80% of end-to-end inference time. Naively reducing the step count is unreliable, degrading success on most tasks due to the velocity field being uncalibrated for single-step jumps. We present SnapFlow, a plug-and-play self-distillation method that compresses multi-step denoising into a single forward pass (1-NFE) for flow-matching VLAs. SnapFlow mixes standard flow-matching samples with consistency samples whose targets are two-step Euler shortcut velocities computed from the model's own marginal velocity predictions, avoiding the trajectory drift caused by conditional velocities, as we analyze theoretically. A zero-initialized target-time embedding lets the network switch between local velocity estimation and global one-step generation within a single architecture. SnapFlow requires no external teacher, no architecture changes, and trains in ~12h on a single GPU. We validate on two VLA architectures spanning a 6x parameter range, with identical hyperparameters: on pi0.5 (3B) across four LIBERO suites (40 tasks, 400 episodes), SnapFlow achieves 98.75% average success -- matching the 10-step teacher at 97.75% and slightly exceeding it -- with 9.6x denoising speedup and end-to-end latency reduced from 274ms to 83ms; on SmolVLA (500M), it reduces MSE by 8.3% with 3.56x end-to-end acceleration. An action-step sweep on long-horizon tasks reveals that SnapFlow maintains its advantage across execution horizons, achieving 93% at n_act=5 where the baseline reaches only 90%. SnapFlow is orthogonal to layer-distillation and token-pruning approaches, enabling compositional speedups.

Current motion-conditioned video generation methods suffer from prohibitive latency (minutes per video) and non-causal processing that prevents real-time interaction. We present MotionStream, enabling sub-second latency with up to 29 FPS streaming generation on a single GPU. Our approach begins by augmenting a text-to-video model with motion control, which generates high-quality videos that adhere to the global text prompt and local motion guidance, but does not perform inference on the fly. As such, we distill this bidirectional teacher into a causal student through Self Forcing with Distribution Matching Distillation, enabling real-time streaming inference. Several key challenges arise when generating videos of long, potentially infinite time-horizons: (1) bridging the domain gap from training on finite length and extrapolating to infinite horizons, (2) sustaining high quality by preventing error accumulation, and (3) maintaining fast inference, without incurring growth in computational cost due to increasing context windows. A key to our approach is introducing carefully designed sliding-window causal attention, combined with attention sinks. By incorporating self-rollout with attention sinks and KV cache rolling during training, we properly simulate inference-time extrapolations with a fixed context window, enabling constant-speed generation of arbitrarily long videos. Our models achieve state-of-the-art results in motion following and video quality while being two orders of magnitude faster, uniquely enabling infinite-length streaming. With MotionStream, users can paint trajectories, control cameras, or transfer motion, and see results unfold in real-time, delivering a truly interactive experience.

We introduce Moirai 2.0, a decoder-only time-series foundation model trained on a new corpus of 36M series. The model adopts quantile forecasting and multi-token prediction, improving both probabilistic accuracy and inference efficiency. On the Gift-Eval benchmark, it ranks among the top pretrained models while achieving a strong trade-off between accuracy, speed, and model size. Compared to Moirai 1.0, Moirai 2.0 replaces masked-encoder training, multi-patch inputs, and mixture-distribution outputs with a simpler decoder-only architecture, single patch, and quantile loss. Ablation studies isolate these changes -- showing that the decoder-only backbone along with recursive multi-quantile decoding contribute most to the gains. Additional experiments show that Moirai 2.0 outperforms larger models from the same family and exhibits robust domain-level results. In terms of efficiency and model size, Moirai 2.0 is twice as fast and thirty times smaller than its prior best version, Moirai 1.0-Large, while also performing better. Model performance plateaus with increasing parameter count and declines at longer horizons, motivating future work on data scaling and long-horizon modeling. We release code and evaluation details to support further research.

As the research community aims to build better AI assistants that are more dynamic and personalized to the diversity of humans that they interact with, there is increased interest in evaluating the theory of mind capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Indeed, several recent studies suggest that LLM theory of mind capabilities are quite impressive, approximating human-level performance. Our paper aims to rebuke this narrative and argues instead that past studies were not directly measuring agent performance, potentially leading to findings that are illusory in nature as a result. We draw a strong distinction between what we call literal theory of mind i.e. measuring the agent's ability to predict the behavior of others and functional theory of mind i.e. adapting to agents in-context based on a rational response to predictions of their behavior. We find that top performing open source LLMs may display strong capabilities in literal theory of mind, depending on how they are prompted, but seem to struggle with functional theory of mind -- even when partner policies are exceedingly simple. Our work serves to highlight the double sided nature of inductive bias in LLMs when adapting to new situations. While this bias can lead to strong performance over limited horizons, it often hinders convergence to optimal long-term behavior.

Imitation Learning (IL) enables robots to acquire manipulation skills from expert demonstrations. Diffusion Policy (DP) models multi-modal expert behaviors but suffers performance degradation as observation horizons increase, limiting long-horizon manipulation. We propose Self-Evolving Gated Attention (SEGA), a temporal module that maintains a time-evolving latent state via gated attention, enabling efficient recurrent updates that compress long-horizon observations into a fixed-size representation while filtering irrelevant temporal information. Integrating SEGA into DP yields Self-Evolving Diffusion Policy (SeedPolicy), which resolves the temporal modeling bottleneck and enables scalable horizon extension with moderate overhead. On the RoboTwin 2.0 benchmark with 50 manipulation tasks, SeedPolicy outperforms DP and other IL baselines. Averaged across both CNN and Transformer backbones, SeedPolicy achieves 36.8% relative improvement in clean settings and 169% relative improvement in randomized challenging settings over the DP. Compared to vision-language-action models such as RDT with 1.2B parameters, SeedPolicy achieves competitive performance with one to two orders of magnitude fewer parameters, demonstrating strong efficiency and scalability. These results establish SeedPolicy as a state-of-the-art imitation learning method for long-horizon robotic manipulation. Code is available at: https://github.com/Youqiang-Gui/SeedPolicy.

Recommending novel content, which expands user horizons by introducing them to new interests, has been shown to improve users' long-term experience on recommendation platforms chen2021values. Users however are not constantly looking to explore novel content. It is therefore crucial to understand their novelty-seeking intent and adjust the recommendation policy accordingly. Most existing literature models a user's propensity to choose novel content or to prefer a more diverse set of recommendations at individual interactions. Hierarchical structure, on the other hand, exists in a user's novelty-seeking intent, which is manifested as a static and intrinsic user preference for seeking novelty along with a dynamic session-based propensity. To this end, we propose a novel hierarchical reinforcement learning-based method to model the hierarchical user novelty-seeking intent, and to adapt the recommendation policy accordingly based on the extracted user novelty-seeking propensity. We further incorporate diversity and novelty-related measurement in the reward function of the hierarchical RL (HRL) agent to encourage user exploration chen2021values. We demonstrate the benefits of explicitly modeling hierarchical user novelty-seeking intent in recommendations through extensive experiments on simulated and real-world datasets. In particular, we demonstrate that the effectiveness of our proposed hierarchical RL-based method lies in its ability to capture such hierarchically-structured intent. As a result, the proposed HRL model achieves superior performance on several public datasets, compared with state-of-art baselines.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have empowered LLM agents to autonomously collect world information, over which to conduct reasoning to solve complex problems. Given this capability, increasing interests have been put into employing LLM agents for predicting international events, which can influence decision-making and shape policy development on an international scale. Despite such a growing interest, there is a lack of a rigorous benchmark of LLM agents' forecasting capability and reliability. To address this gap, we introduce MIRAI, a novel benchmark designed to systematically evaluate LLM agents as temporal forecasters in the context of international events. Our benchmark features an agentic environment with tools for accessing an extensive database of historical, structured events and textual news articles. We refine the GDELT event database with careful cleaning and parsing to curate a series of relational prediction tasks with varying forecasting horizons, assessing LLM agents' abilities from short-term to long-term forecasting. We further implement APIs to enable LLM agents to utilize different tools via a code-based interface. In summary, MIRAI comprehensively evaluates the agents' capabilities in three dimensions: 1) autonomously source and integrate critical information from large global databases; 2) write codes using domain-specific APIs and libraries for tool-use; and 3) jointly reason over historical knowledge from diverse formats and time to accurately predict future events. Through comprehensive benchmarking, we aim to establish a reliable framework for assessing the capabilities of LLM agents in forecasting international events, thereby contributing to the development of more accurate and trustworthy models for international relation analysis.

Understanding and anticipating vulnerability-related activity is a major challenge in cyber threat intelligence. This work investigates whether vulnerability sightings, such as proof-of-concept releases, detection templates, or online discussions, can be forecast over time. Building on our earlier work on VLAI, a transformer-based model that predicts vulnerability severity from textual descriptions, we examine whether severity scores can improve time-series forecasting as exogenous variables. We evaluate several approaches for short-term forecasting of sightings per vulnerability. First, we test SARIMAX models with and without log(x+1) transformations and VLAI-derived severity inputs. Although these adjustments provide limited improvements, SARIMAX remains poorly suited to sparse, short, and bursty vulnerability data. In practice, forecasts often produce overly wide confidence intervals and sometimes unrealistic negative values. To better capture the discrete and event-driven nature of sightings, we then explore count-based methods such as Poisson regression. Early results show that these models produce more stable and interpretable forecasts, especially when sightings are aggregated weekly. We also discuss simpler operational alternatives, including exponential decay functions for short forecasting horizons, to estimate future activity without requiring long historical series. Overall, this study highlights both the potential and the limitations of forecasting rare and bursty cyber events, and provides practical guidance for integrating predictive analytics into vulnerability intelligence workflows.

Knee Osteoarthritis (KOA) is a highly prevalent chronic musculoskeletal condition with no currently available treatment. The manifestation of KOA is heterogeneous and prediction of its progression is challenging. Current literature suggests that the use of multi-modal data and advanced modeling methods, such as the ones based on Deep Learning, has promise in tackling this challenge. To date, however, the evidence on the efficacy of this approach is limited. In this study, we leveraged recent advances in Deep Learning and, using a Transformer approach, developed a unified framework for the multi-modal fusion of knee imaging data. Subsequently, we analyzed its performance across a range of scenarios by investigating multiple progression horizons -- from short-term to long-term. We report our findings using a large cohort (n=2421-3967) derived from the Osteoarthritis Initiative dataset. We show that structural knee MRI allows identifying radiographic KOA progressors on par with multi-modal fusion approaches, achieving an area under the ROC curve (ROC AUC) of 0.70-0.76 and Average Precision (AP) of 0.15-0.54 in 2-8 year horizons. Progression within 1 year was better predicted with a multi-modal method using X-ray, structural, and compositional MR images -- ROC AUC of 0.76(0.04), AP of 0.13(0.04) -- or via clinical data. Our follow-up analysis generally shows that prediction from the imaging data is more accurate for post-traumatic subjects, and we further investigate which subject subgroups may benefit the most. The present study provides novel insights into multi-modal imaging of KOA and brings a unified data-driven framework for studying its progression in an end-to-end manner, providing new tools for the design of more efficient clinical trials. The source code of our framework and the pre-trained models are made publicly available.

Neural operators have proven to be a promising approach for modeling spatiotemporal systems in the physical sciences. However, training these models for large systems can be quite challenging as they incur significant computational and memory expense -- these systems are often forced to rely on autoregressive time-stepping of the neural network to predict future temporal states. While this is effective in managing costs, it can lead to uncontrolled error growth over time and eventual instability. We analyze the sources of this autoregressive error growth using prototypical neural operator models for physical systems and explore ways to mitigate it. We introduce architectural and application-specific improvements that allow for careful control of instability-inducing operations within these models without inflating the compute/memory expense. We present results on several scientific systems that include Navier-Stokes fluid flow, rotating shallow water, and a high-resolution global weather forecasting system. We demonstrate that applying our design principles to neural operators leads to significantly lower errors for long-term forecasts as well as longer time horizons without qualitative signs of divergence compared to the original models for these systems. We open-source our https://github.com/mikemccabe210/stabilizing_neural_operators{code} for reproducibility.

We introduce the Neural Field Turing Machine (NFTM), a differentiable architecture that unifies symbolic computation, physical simulation, and perceptual inference within continuous spatial fields. NFTM combines a neural controller, continuous memory field, and movable read/write heads that perform local updates. At each timestep, the controller reads local patches, computes updates via learned rules, and writes them back while updating head positions. This design achieves linear O(N) scaling through fixed-radius neighborhoods while maintaining Turing completeness under bounded error. We demonstrate three example instantiations of NFTM: cellular automata simulation (Rule 110), physics-informed PDE solvers (2D heat equation), and iterative image refinement (CIFAR-10 inpainting). These instantiations learn local update rules that compose into global dynamics, exhibit stable long-horizon rollouts, and generalize beyond training horizons. NFTM provides a unified computational substrate bridging discrete algorithms and continuous field dynamics within a single differentiable framework.

We propose a hierarchical entity-centric framework for offline Goal-Conditioned Reinforcement Learning (GCRL) that combines subgoal decomposition with factored structure to solve long-horizon tasks in domains with multiple entities. Achieving long-horizon goals in complex environments remains a core challenge in Reinforcement Learning (RL). Domains with multiple entities are particularly difficult due to their combinatorial complexity. GCRL facilitates generalization across goals and the use of subgoal structure, but struggles with high-dimensional observations and combinatorial state-spaces, especially under sparse reward. We employ a two-level hierarchy composed of a value-based GCRL agent and a factored subgoal-generating conditional diffusion model. The RL agent and subgoal generator are trained independently and composed post hoc through selective subgoal generation based on the value function, making the approach modular and compatible with existing GCRL algorithms. We introduce new variations to benchmark tasks that highlight the challenges of multi-entity domains, and show that our method consistently boosts performance of the underlying RL agent on image-based long-horizon tasks with sparse rewards, achieving over 150% higher success rates on the hardest task in our suite and generalizing to increasing horizons and numbers of entities. Rollout videos are provided at: https://sites.google.com/view/hecrl