Daily Papers

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) aim to determine whether a specific sample was used to train a predictive model. Knowing this may indeed lead to a privacy breach. Most MIAs, however, make use of the model's prediction scores - the probability of each output given some input - following the intuition that the trained model tends to behave differently on its training data. We argue that this is a fallacy for many modern deep network architectures. Consequently, MIAs will miserably fail since overconfidence leads to high false-positive rates not only on known domains but also on out-of-distribution data and implicitly acts as a defense against MIAs. Specifically, using generative adversarial networks, we are able to produce a potentially infinite number of samples falsely classified as part of the training data. In other words, the threat of MIAs is overestimated, and less information is leaked than previously assumed. Moreover, there is actually a trade-off between the overconfidence of models and their susceptibility to MIAs: the more classifiers know when they do not know, making low confidence predictions, the more they reveal the training data.

Imitation learning (IL) with generative models, such as diffusion and flow matching, has enabled robots to perform complex, long-horizon tasks. However, distribution shifts from unseen environments or compounding action errors can still cause unpredictable and unsafe behavior, leading to task failure. Early failure prediction during runtime is therefore essential for deploying robots in human-centered and safety-critical environments. We propose FIPER, a general framework for Failure Prediction at Runtime for generative IL policies that does not require failure data. FIPER identifies two key indicators of impending failure: (i) out-of-distribution (OOD) observations detected via random network distillation in the policy's embedding space, and (ii) high uncertainty in generated actions measured by a novel action-chunk entropy score. Both failure prediction scores are calibrated using a small set of successful rollouts via conformal prediction. A failure alarm is triggered when both indicators, aggregated over short time windows, exceed their thresholds. We evaluate FIPER across five simulation and real-world environments involving diverse failure modes. Our results demonstrate that FIPER better distinguishes actual failures from benign OOD situations and predicts failures more accurately and earlier than existing methods. We thus consider this work an important step towards more interpretable and safer generative robot policies. Code, data and videos are available at https://tum-lsy.github.io/fiper_website.

Machine-learning surrogates accelerate physical simulation, but lower prediction error need not coincide with lower error in physically relevant flow statistics. We examine this question for flow around a NACA4418 airfoil using paired computational-fluid-dynamics simulations and experimental particle-image-velocimetry measurements. A mean-preserving input intervention removes velocity fluctuations from selected regions of observed flow histories. Across four neural operators, removing fluctuations from the most energetic 10% of valid observed cells changes forecasts more than equal-area random removal. Because the masks are not matched for removed fluctuation energy, this contrast measures sensitivity, not independent evidence of physical importance. Separately, a CNO has lower velocity-field error but substantially higher two-component fluctuation-energy error than the reference on both analysis subsets. An output attenuation stress test also demonstrates disagreement between benchmark errors and domain-summed fluctuation energy. These single-benchmark results motivate reporting complementary physical diagnostics alongside aggregate prediction scores; they do not establish counterfactual physical correctness.

The task of Error Prediction, namely predicting whether a model output is correct, is commonly tackled with Uncertainty Quantification (UQ). However, while uncertainty metrics capture when models lack knowledge or capacity to make a prediction, they also reflect aleatoric uncertainty, which is inherent in the model input and context. This paper presents a method for improving error prediction for Large Language Models (LLMs), by disentangling input ambiguity from UQ signal. We conduct experiments on the task of Question Answering (QA) with six UQ metrics and show that UQ metrics are more predictive of errors on unambiguous instances than on questions with multiple plausible answers. We use Gated Experts and Selective Prediction to incorporate gold and predicted ambiguity labels into the error prediction pipeline. We find that ambiguity information improves error prediction scores across model families, training and evaluation paradigms, datasets (including allegedly unambiguous ones), and sources of aleatoric uncertainty, yielding improvements of over 10 points of PRR for individual UQ metrics on standard datasets.

Cold-start drug-drug interaction (DDI) prediction tests whether models can identify clinically significant interactions for drugs without training-time interaction history. Existing benchmarks mostly report aggregate edge-prediction scores, leaving a key evaluation question unanswered: when models receive molecular, textual, or knowledge-graph (KG) evidence, do they actually use the evidence that pharmacologically supports the interaction? We introduce ColdDDI, a reconstructible diagnostic benchmark built from DrugBank 5.1.13, with 1,900 approved small-molecule drugs and 565,731 positive DDI pairs. ColdDDI evaluates pairs with zero, one, or two unseen drugs. It also annotates each interaction by whether it changes drug exposure or drug effect, and by whether the biomedical knowledge graph contains shared enzymes, transporters, or targets that can plausibly mediate the interaction. These annotations separate evidence availability from predictive dependence. We evaluate eight conventional DDI methods and 13 LLMs; for open-weight LLMs, we test five prompt patterns and use masking, drug replacement, and channel-sensitivity metrics to probe knowledge utilization. ColdDDI exposes that, in the hardest split where both drugs are unseen, the main performance divide is mediator availability. A fine-tuned 1B LLM recovers 89-93% of interactions with a shared enzyme, transporter, or target, but only 40-62% without such a mediator. More importantly, KG-provided evidence is not always used; several KG-augmented baselines change little when the shared mediator is masked or disrupted, whereas fine-tuned LLMs respond strongly to this intervention. Thus, ColdDDI evaluates knowledge utilization rather than knowledge access alone, showing where cold-start DDI models rely on mechanistic evidence and where they fail despite receiving it. Code is available at https://github.com/0217ljh/ColdDDI-NeurIPS2026.

Recent studies show that Question Answering (QA) based on Answer Sentence Selection (AS2) can be improved by generating an improved answer from the top-k ranked answer sentences (termed GenQA). This allows for synthesizing the information from multiple candidates into a concise, natural-sounding answer. However, creating large-scale supervised training data for GenQA models is very challenging. In this paper, we propose to train a GenQA model by transferring knowledge from a trained AS2 model, to overcome the aforementioned issue. First, we use an AS2 model to produce a ranking over answer candidates for a set of questions. Then, we use the top ranked candidate as the generation target, and the next k top ranked candidates as context for training a GenQA model. We also propose to use the AS2 model prediction scores for loss weighting and score-conditioned input/output shaping, to aid the knowledge transfer. Our evaluation on three public and one large industrial datasets demonstrates the superiority of our approach over the AS2 baseline, and GenQA trained using supervised data.

Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Precision-Recall (PR) curves are fundamental tools for evaluating machine learning classifiers, offering detailed insights into the trade-offs between true positive rate vs. false positive rate (ROC) or precision vs. recall (PR). However, in Federated Learning (FL) scenarios, where data is distributed across multiple clients, computing these curves is challenging due to privacy and communication constraints. Specifically, the server cannot access raw prediction scores and class labels, which are used to compute the ROC and PR curves in a centralized setting. In this paper, we propose a novel method for approximating ROC and PR curves in a federated setting by estimating quantiles of the prediction score distribution under distributed differential privacy. We provide theoretical bounds on the Area Error (AE) between the true and estimated curves, demonstrating the trade-offs between approximation accuracy, privacy, and communication cost. Empirical results on real-world datasets demonstrate that our method achieves high approximation accuracy with minimal communication and strong privacy guarantees, making it practical for privacy-preserving model evaluation in federated systems.

Large language models rely heavily on human text, which often conveys surface answers rather than the spatial and structural logic behind them. Protein folding is a natural testbed, because one solved structure yields thousands of exactly checkable spatial and topological statements. We ask: can learning to fold proteins teach general models reusable reasoning capabilities? To answer this, we build FoldingCorpus, a protein-derived question-answer dataset, and Fold2Reason, a recipe that post-trains on it through two complementary signals: discrete structural answers predicted via the model's native language head, and continuous 3D geometry decoded from the same shared representations. On FoldBench, Fold2Reason achieves structure prediction scores 2.7 to 3.5 times those of Qwen3.5-9B. Beyond protein structure prediction, it improves performance on all 10 benchmarks spanning spatial, graph, scientific, and general reasoning, raising macro-average accuracy from 45.09% to 48.33% (+3.23 pp), with positive gains on all 10 benchmarks, while matched controls built from random, synthetic, and shuffled structure yield substantially smaller or negative gains. Our work shows that non-linguistic, structure-dense scientific data can systematically improve broad reasoning in language models, making a solved scientific problem a practical source of post-training supervision.

State-of-the-art supervised NLP models achieve high accuracy but are also susceptible to failures on inputs from low-data regimes, such as domains that are not represented in training data. As an approximation to collecting ground-truth labels for the specific domain, we study the use of large language models (LLMs) for annotating inputs and improving the generalization of NLP models. Specifically, given a budget for LLM annotations, we present an algorithm for sampling the most informative inputs to annotate and retrain the NLP model. We find that popular active learning strategies such as uncertainty-based sampling do not work well. Instead, we propose a sampling strategy based on the difference in prediction scores between the base model and the finetuned NLP model, utilizing the fact that most NLP models are finetuned from a base model. Experiments with classification (semantic similarity) and ranking (semantic search) tasks show that our sampling strategy leads to significant gains in accuracy for both the training and target domains.

Methods based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to build generative models of time-series. In addition to high computational overhead due to explicitly computing hidden states recurrence, existing ODE-based models fall short in learning sequence data with sharp transitions - common in many real-world systems - due to numerical challenges during optimization. In this work, we propose LS4, a generative model for sequences with latent variables evolving according to a state space ODE to increase modeling capacity. Inspired by recent deep state space models (S4), we achieve speedups by leveraging a convolutional representation of LS4 which bypasses the explicit evaluation of hidden states. We show that LS4 significantly outperforms previous continuous-time generative models in terms of marginal distribution, classification, and prediction scores on real-world datasets in the Monash Forecasting Repository, and is capable of modeling highly stochastic data with sharp temporal transitions. LS4 sets state-of-the-art for continuous-time latent generative models, with significant improvement of mean squared error and tighter variational lower bounds on irregularly-sampled datasets, while also being x100 faster than other baselines on long sequences.

We show that classifiers trained with random region proposals achieve state-of-the-art Open-world Object Detection (OWOD): they can not only maintain the accuracy of the known objects (w/ training labels), but also considerably improve the recall of unknown ones (w/o training labels). Specifically, we propose RandBox, a Fast R-CNN based architecture trained on random proposals at each training iteration, surpassing existing Faster R-CNN and Transformer based OWOD. Its effectiveness stems from the following two benefits introduced by randomness. First, as the randomization is independent of the distribution of the limited known objects, the random proposals become the instrumental variable that prevents the training from being confounded by the known objects. Second, the unbiased training encourages more proposal explorations by using our proposed matching score that does not penalize the random proposals whose prediction scores do not match the known objects. On two benchmarks: Pascal-VOC/MS-COCO and LVIS, RandBox significantly outperforms the previous state-of-the-art in all metrics. We also detail the ablations on randomization and loss designs. Codes are available at https://github.com/scuwyh2000/RandBox.

Answering complex queries on incomplete knowledge graphs is a challenging task where a model needs to answer complex logical queries in the presence of missing knowledge. Prior work in the literature has proposed to address this problem by designing architectures trained end-to-end for the complex query answering task with a reasoning process that is hard to interpret while requiring data and resource-intensive training. Other lines of research have proposed re-using simple neural link predictors to answer complex queries, reducing the amount of training data by orders of magnitude while providing interpretable answers. The neural link predictor used in such approaches is not explicitly optimised for the complex query answering task, implying that its scores are not calibrated to interact together. We propose to address these problems via CQD^{A}, a parameter-efficient score adaptation model optimised to re-calibrate neural link prediction scores for the complex query answering task. While the neural link predictor is frozen, the adaptation component -- which only increases the number of model parameters by 0.03% -- is trained on the downstream complex query answering task. Furthermore, the calibration component enables us to support reasoning over queries that include atomic negations, which was previously impossible with link predictors. In our experiments, CQD^{A} produces significantly more accurate results than current state-of-the-art methods, improving from 34.4 to 35.1 Mean Reciprocal Rank values averaged across all datasets and query types while using leq 30% of the available training query types. We further show that CQD^{A} is data-efficient, achieving competitive results with only 1% of the training complex queries, and robust in out-of-domain evaluations.

We introduce NOVIC, an innovative real-time uNconstrained Open Vocabulary Image Classifier that uses an autoregressive transformer to generatively output classification labels as language. Leveraging the extensive knowledge of CLIP models, NOVIC harnesses the embedding space to enable zero-shot transfer from pure text to images. Traditional CLIP models, despite their ability for open vocabulary classification, require an exhaustive prompt of potential class labels, restricting their application to images of known content or context. To address this, we propose an "object decoder" model that is trained on a large-scale 92M-target dataset of templated object noun sets and LLM-generated captions to always output the object noun in question. This effectively inverts the CLIP text encoder and allows textual object labels from essentially the entire English language to be generated directly from image-derived embedding vectors, without requiring any a priori knowledge of the potential content of an image, and without any label biases. The trained decoders are tested on a mix of manually and web-curated datasets, as well as standard image classification benchmarks, and achieve fine-grained prompt-free prediction scores of up to 87.5%, a strong result considering the model must work for any conceivable image and without any contextual clues.

The development of large language models (LLMs) has achieved superior performance in a range of downstream tasks, including LLM-based retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). The quality of generated content heavily relies on the usefulness of the retrieved information and the capacity of LLMs' internal information processing mechanism to incorporate it in answer generation. It is generally assumed that the retrieved information is relevant to the question. However, the retrieved information may have a variable degree of relevance and usefulness, depending on the question and the document collection. It is important to take into account the relevance of the retrieved information in answer generation. In this paper, we propose OpenDecoder, a new approach that leverages explicit evaluation of the retrieved information as quality indicator features for generation. We aim to build a RAG model that is more robust to varying levels of noisy context. Three types of explicit evaluation information are considered: relevance score, ranking score, and QPP (query performance prediction) score. The experimental results on five benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and better robustness of OpenDecoder by outperforming various baseline methods. Importantly, this paradigm is flexible to be integrated with the post-training of LLMs for any purposes and incorporated with any type of external indicators.

We address the problem of language-based temporal localization of moments in untrimmed videos. Compared to temporal localization with fixed categories, this problem is more challenging as the language-based queries have no predefined activity classes and may also contain complex descriptions. Current state-of-the-art model MAC addresses it by mining activity concepts from both video and language modalities. This method encodes the semantic activity concepts from the verb/object pair in a language query and leverages visual activity concepts from video activity classification prediction scores. We propose "Multi-faceted VideoMoment Localizer" (MML), an extension of MAC model by the introduction of visual object evidence via object segmentation masks and video understanding features via video captioning. Furthermore, we improve language modelling in sentence embedding. We experimented on Charades-STA dataset and identified that MML outperforms MAC baseline by 4.93% and 1.70% on R@1 and R@5metrics respectively. Our code and pre-trained model are publicly available at https://github.com/madhawav/MML.

Autoregressive (AR) video diffusion enables low-latency, streamable video generation, but prediction errors often accumulate over long rollouts. Training the generator on its own rollouts exposes it to these imperfect histories. However, existing video-level distribution matching distillation (DMD) scores the whole rollout jointly. Because a chunk is evaluated together with its past and future, its correction can favor matching artifacts in the surrounding context merely to preserve temporal consistency. To provide a clearer visual-quality signal, we introduce Rollout-Marginal Distillation (RMD). RMD retains the generated history for AR prediction but scores each chunk independently against a chunk teacher, ensuring its quality correction is not compromised by an imperfect temporal context. To compensate for the lack of temporal context in independent chunk scoring, RMD subsequently applies video-level DMD to restore temporal coherence. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RMD maintains high visual quality far beyond its training horizon and outperforms video-level DMD baselines. Code and video results are available at https://cjeen.github.io/RMD

Docking is a crucial component in drug discovery aimed at predicting the binding conformation and affinity between small molecules and target proteins. ML-based docking has recently emerged as a prominent approach, outpacing traditional methods like DOCK and AutoDock Vina in handling the growing scale and complexity of molecular libraries. However, the availability of comprehensive and user-friendly datasets for training and benchmarking ML-based docking algorithms remains limited. We introduce Smiles2Dock, an open large-scale multi-task dataset for molecular docking. We created a framework combining P2Rank and AutoDock Vina to dock 1.7 million ligands from the ChEMBL database against 15 AlphaFold proteins, giving us more than 25 million protein-ligand binding scores. The dataset leverages a wide range of high-accuracy AlphaFold protein models, encompasses a diverse set of biologically relevant compounds and enables researchers to benchmark all major approaches for ML-based docking such as Graph, Transformer and CNN-based methods. We also introduce a novel Transformer-based architecture for docking scores prediction and set it as an initial benchmark for our dataset. Our dataset and code are publicly available to support the development of novel ML-based methods for molecular docking to advance scientific research in this field.

Blood vessel networks in the brain play a crucial role in stroke research, where understanding their topology is essential for analyzing blood flow dynamics. However, extracting detailed topological vessel network information from microscopy data remains a significant challenge, mainly due to the scarcity of labeled training data and the need for high topological accuracy. This work combines synthetic data generation with deep learning to automatically extract vessel networks as graphs from volumetric microscopy data. To combat data scarcity, we introduce a comprehensive pipeline for generating large-scale synthetic datasets that mirror the characteristics of real vessel networks. Our three-stage approach progresses from abstract graph generation through vessel mask creation to realistic medical image synthesis, incorporating biological constraints and imaging artifacts at each stage. Using this synthetic data, we develop a two-stage deep learning pipeline of 3D U-Net-based models for node detection and edge prediction. Fine-tuning on real microscopy data shows promising adaptation, improving edge prediction F1 scores from 0.496 to 0.626 by training on merely 5 manually labeled samples. These results suggest that automated vessel network extraction is becoming practically feasible, opening new possibilities for large-scale vascular analysis in stroke research.

The Internet of Value (IoV) is a heterogeneous, partially-trusted network in which the dominant marginal risk is composite (route, sentiment, liquidity, and the policy a system is willing to commit to) rather than a property of any single chain. We argue that a risk primitive adequate for this regime is a composition of five engines: a prediction engine over price, liquidity, volatility, and route health; a Bittensor verification subnet that decentralises and economically scores prediction outputs; a sentiment-fusion engine over text, on-chain flow, and grey-literature feeds; an agentic engine under constitutional, role-bound action constraints; and an API-risk and scenario engine that converts forecasts into pre-committed action programs in the sense of Monte-Carlo scenario generation. We anchor the architecture in two empirical artefacts: a 27-hour policy-constrained liquidity stress-response experiment on Solana, and a 168-hour prediction-router calibration arc reported with explicit class-imbalance honesty. The case study supports deployability; the validator-loss decomposition is stated formally and is falsifiable.

The recent explosion of question answering (QA) datasets and models has increased the interest in the generalization of models across multiple domains and formats by either training on multiple datasets or by combining multiple models. Despite the promising results of multi-dataset models, some domains or QA formats may require specific architectures, and thus the adaptability of these models might be limited. In addition, current approaches for combining models disregard cues such as question-answer compatibility. In this work, we propose to combine expert agents with a novel, flexible, and training-efficient architecture that considers questions, answer predictions, and answer-prediction confidence scores to select the best answer among a list of answer candidates. Through quantitative and qualitative experiments we show that our model i) creates a collaboration between agents that outperforms previous multi-agent and multi-dataset approaches in both in-domain and out-of-domain scenarios, ii) is highly data-efficient to train, and iii) can be adapted to any QA format. We release our code and a dataset of answer predictions from expert agents for 16 QA datasets to foster future developments of multi-agent systems on https://github.com/UKPLab/MetaQA.

World models enable agents to plan and learn from imagined experience, but in an unfamiliar environment they must learn its mechanics from limited interaction. A mechanic is a rule for how an action or an interaction changes part of the environment. Each occurrence of a mechanic that the model observes is one exposure. We ask how many exposures a world model needs to predict the effects of a new environment's mechanics. We address this question on ARC-AGI-3, a benchmark of interactive games defined by their programs. We introduce MechEval, which labels 69 recurring mechanics across 20 games from these programs. It scores each prediction on the cells the mechanic changes at each exposure. As a test bed, we build WARC (World model for ARC-AGI-3), a 35M-parameter vision transformer that is pretrained on other games and updates all of its parameters after each transition. On held-out games, WARC learns to predict four in five mechanics with at least 80% accuracy on the cells they change and keeps that accuracy to the end of the recordings. Half of them reach that accuracy within about 80 exposures, in a single play of the game, and without updates only one in seven does at all. In closed-loop play on the public games, WARC-Agent, which pairs WARC with a fixed graph explorer, triples the explorer's official efficiency score from 0.15 to 0.46, mostly through test-time training. On the hidden games of the Kaggle leaderboard, our entry scores 0.20.

Tree search has become as a representative framework for test-time reasoning with large language models (LLMs), exemplified by methods such as Tree-of-Thought and Monte Carlo Tree Search that explore multiple reasoning paths. However, it remains difficult to provide instant and reliable quantitative assessments of intermediate reasoning step quality, and extensive path exploration is computationally costly. To address this, we propose Mutual Information Tree Search (MITS), a novel framework that guides reasoning with information-theoretic principles. MITS introduces an effective scoring function based on pointwise mutual information (PMI), which enables step-wise evaluation of reasoning paths and search tree expansion via beam search without expensive look-ahead simulations, achieving superior reasoning performances while maintaining computational efficiency. The framework is complemented by an entropy-based dynamic sampling strategy that adaptively allocates computational resources to uncertain reasoning steps where exploration is most beneficial. For final prediction, MITS employs a weighted voting scheme that combines PMI scores with prediction consensus. Through comprehensive experiments on diverse reasoning benchmarks, MITS consistently surpasses baseline methods, establishing a principled and efficient framework for LLM reasoning.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have been applied to autonomous driving to support decision-making in complex real-world scenarios. However, their training on static, web-sourced image-text pairs fundamentally limits the precise spatiotemporal reasoning required to understand and predict dynamic traffic scenes. We address this critical gap with STRIDE-QA, a large-scale visual question answering (VQA) dataset for physically grounded reasoning from an ego-centric perspective. Constructed from 100 hours of multi-sensor driving data in Tokyo, capturing diverse and challenging conditions, STRIDE-QA is the largest VQA dataset for spatiotemporal reasoning in urban driving, offering 16 million QA pairs over 285K frames. Grounded by dense, automatically generated annotations including 3D bounding boxes, segmentation masks, and multi-object tracks, the dataset uniquely supports both object-centric and ego-centric reasoning through three novel QA tasks that require spatial localization and temporal prediction. Our benchmarks demonstrate that existing VLMs struggle significantly, achieving near-zero scores on prediction consistency. In contrast, VLMs fine-tuned on STRIDE-QA exhibit dramatic performance gains, achieving 55% success in spatial localization and 28% consistency in future motion prediction, compared to near-zero scores from general-purpose VLMs. Therefore, STRIDE-QA establishes a comprehensive foundation for developing more reliable VLMs for safety-critical autonomous systems.

When a large language model fails a reasoning task, it is often assumed to lack the underlying capability. However, this conflates a genuine absence of reasoning with a late-stage output bottleneck. We observe a consistent readout gap across diverse reasoning benchmarks: hidden-state probes successfully decode correct answers even when native sequence scoring completely collapses due to structural biases. To test whether instance-specific logic survives this collapse, we introduce a diagnostic protocol using a minimal, target-label-free additive correction. Fitting just two parameters on as few as 25 unlabeled examples recovers 9--34 accuracy points for Qwen3.5 models, transferring successfully to OLMo-2-1B and Llama-3.1-8B. Crucially, these recovered decisions persist on hard instances unresolved by simple lexical overlap and significantly exceed count-preserving permutation baselines. Our results show that many apparent zero-shot reasoning deficits are expression failures masking intact internal logic, urging a narrower interpretation of benchmark evaluations.

The systemic, metabolic, lifestyle factors have established associations with Alzheimer's Disease (AD) through epidemiologic and AD-specific biomarker studies. Whether colored fundus photography (CFP) contains retinal structural signatures corresponding to these AD-related risk domains remains unclear. To determine whether deep learning (DL) models can predict 12 AD-related risk factors from CFP and to characterize the retinal structures underlying these predictions, thereby assessing whether CFP reflects pathways to AD vulnerability. Using 62,876 CFPs from 44,501 unique participants from the UK Biobank, DL models were trained to predict 12 factors linked to AD incidence: 6 categorical (sex, smoking, sleeplessness, economic status, alcohol use, depression) and 6 continuous (age, age at completing education, BMI, systolic, diastolic blood pressure, HbA1c). Model performance, model saliency, and saliency-derived scores (CAM-Score) were evaluated and compared to retinal morphometry. The scores were also compared between incident-AD cases (average 8.55 years before onset) and matched controls. Performance of DL ranged from AUROC= 0.5654-0.9480 for categorical and R2=-0.0291-0.7620 for continuous factors, outperforming most of the morphometry-machine learning models. Saliency-based score consistently highlighted biologically meaningful regions, particularly the optic nerve head and retinal vasculature. It also aligned with present morphometric variations. Several saliency-based scores differed significantly between incident AD and matched controls, suggesting potential overlap between retinal correlates of risk factors and preclinical AD-associated changes. CFP encodes retinal signatures linked to AD risk factors. Although not diagnostic, DL-derived retinal representations may uncover biologically meaningful risk-related structural changes mirroring the potential AD vulnerability.

There has been considerable recent interest in scoring properties on the basis of eviction risk. The success of methods for eviction prediction is typically evaluated using different measures of predictive accuracy. However, the underlying goal of such prediction is to direct appropriate assistance to households that may be at greater risk so they remain stably housed. Thus, we must ask the question of how useful such predictions are in targeting outreach efforts - informing action. In this paper, we investigate this question using a novel dataset that matches information on properties, evictions, and owners. We perform an eviction prediction task to produce risk scores and then use these risk scores to plan targeted outreach policies. We show that the risk scores are, in fact, useful, enabling a theoretical team of caseworkers to reach more eviction-prone properties in the same amount of time, compared to outreach policies that are either neighborhood-based or focus on buildings with a recent history of evictions. We also discuss the importance of neighborhood and ownership features in both risk prediction and targeted outreach.

Conformal prediction is a powerful framework for constructing prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees in multi-class classification. However, existing methods often rely on a single score function, which can limit their efficiency and informativeness. We propose a novel approach that combines multiple score functions to improve the performance of conformal predictors by identifying optimal weights that minimize prediction set size. Our theoretical analysis establishes a connection between the weighted score functions and subgraph classes of functions studied in Vapnik-Chervonenkis theory, providing a rigorous mathematical basis for understanding the effectiveness of the proposed method. Experiments demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms single-score conformal predictors while maintaining valid coverage, offering a principled and data-driven way to enhance the efficiency and practicality of conformal prediction in classification tasks.

Accurate prediction of suitable discourse connectives (however, furthermore, etc.) is a key component of any system aimed at building coherent and fluent discourses from shorter sentences and passages. As an example, a dialog system might assemble a long and informative answer by sampling passages extracted from different documents retrieved from the Web. We formulate the task of discourse connective prediction and release a dataset of 2.9M sentence pairs separated by discourse connectives for this task. Then, we evaluate the hardness of the task for human raters, apply a recently proposed decomposable attention (DA) model to this task and observe that the automatic predictor has a higher F1 than human raters (32 vs. 30). Nevertheless, under specific conditions the raters still outperform the DA model, suggesting that there is headroom for future improvements.

Class-incremental learning (CIL) is a particularly challenging variant of continual learning, where the goal is to learn to discriminate between all classes presented in an incremental fashion. Existing approaches often suffer from excessive forgetting and imbalance of the scores assigned to classes that have not been seen together during training. In this study, we introduce a novel approach, Prediction Error-based Classification (PEC), which differs from traditional discriminative and generative classification paradigms. PEC computes a class score by measuring the prediction error of a model trained to replicate the outputs of a frozen random neural network on data from that class. The method can be interpreted as approximating a classification rule based on Gaussian Process posterior variance. PEC offers several practical advantages, including sample efficiency, ease of tuning, and effectiveness even when data are presented one class at a time. Our empirical results show that PEC performs strongly in single-pass-through-data CIL, outperforming other rehearsal-free baselines in all cases and rehearsal-based methods with moderate replay buffer size in most cases across multiple benchmarks.

We study multiple rule-based and machine learning (ML) models for sepsis detection. We report the first neural network detection and prediction results on three categories of sepsis. We have used the retrospective Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-III dataset, restricted to intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Features for prediction were created from only common vital sign measurements. We show significant improvement of AUC score using neural network based ensemble model compared to single ML and rule-based models. For the detection of sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock, our model achieves an AUC of 0.97, 0.96 and 0.91, respectively. Four hours before the positive hours, it predicts the same three categories with an AUC of 0.90, 0.91 and 0.90 respectively. Further, we ranked the features and found that using six vital signs consistently provides higher detection and prediction AUC for all the models tested. Our novel ensemble model achieves highest AUC in detecting and predicting sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock in the MIMIC-III ICU patients, and is amenable to deployment in hospital settings.

Next-Token Prediction (NTP) is a de facto approach for autoregressive (AR) video generation, but it suffers from suboptimal unidirectional dependencies and slow inference speed. In this work, we propose a semi-autoregressive (semi-AR) framework, called Next-Block Prediction (NBP), for video generation. By uniformly decomposing video content into equal-sized blocks (e.g., rows or frames), we shift the generation unit from individual tokens to blocks, allowing each token in the current block to simultaneously predict the corresponding token in the next block. Unlike traditional AR modeling, our framework employs bidirectional attention within each block, enabling tokens to capture more robust spatial dependencies. By predicting multiple tokens in parallel, NBP models significantly reduce the number of generation steps, leading to faster and more efficient inference. Our model achieves FVD scores of 103.3 on UCF101 and 25.5 on K600, outperforming the vanilla NTP model by an average of 4.4. Furthermore, thanks to the reduced number of inference steps, the NBP model generates 8.89 frames (128x128 resolution) per second, achieving an 11x speedup. We also explored model scales ranging from 700M to 3B parameters, observing significant improvements in generation quality, with FVD scores dropping from 103.3 to 55.3 on UCF101 and from 25.5 to 19.5 on K600, demonstrating the scalability of our approach.

Interactions among features are central to understanding the behavior of machine learning models. Recent research has made significant strides in detecting and quantifying feature interactions in single predictive models. However, we argue that the feature interactions extracted from a single pre-specified model may not be trustworthy since: a well-trained predictive model may not preserve the true feature interactions and there exist multiple well-performing predictive models that differ in feature interaction strengths. Thus, we recommend exploring feature interaction strengths in a model class of approximately equally accurate predictive models. In this work, we introduce the feature interaction score (FIS) in the context of a Rashomon set, representing a collection of models that achieve similar accuracy on a given task. We propose a general and practical algorithm to calculate the FIS in the model class. We demonstrate the properties of the FIS via synthetic data and draw connections to other areas of statistics. Additionally, we introduce a Halo plot for visualizing the feature interaction variance in high-dimensional space and a swarm plot for analyzing FIS in a Rashomon set. Experiments with recidivism prediction and image classification illustrate how feature interactions can vary dramatically in importance for similarly accurate predictive models. Our results suggest that the proposed FIS can provide valuable insights into the nature of feature interactions in machine learning models.

We propose MMLU-SR, a novel dataset designed to measure the true comprehension abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) by challenging their performance in question-answering tasks with modified terms. We reasoned that an agent that ``truly'' understands a concept can still evaluate it when key terms are replaced by suitably defined alternate terms, and sought to differentiate such comprehension from mere text replacement. In our study, we modified standardized test questions by replacing a key term with a dummy word along with its definition. The key term could be in the context of questions, answers, or both questions and answers. Notwithstanding the high scores achieved by recent popular LLMs on the MMLU leaderboard, we found a substantial reduction in model performance after such replacement, suggesting poor comprehension. This new benchmark provides a rigorous benchmark for testing true model comprehension, and poses a challenge to the broader scientific community.

We present PREMISE (PREdict with Matching ScorEs), a new architecture for the matching-based learning in the multimodal fields for the multimodal review helpfulness (MRHP) task. Distinct to previous fusion-based methods which obtains multimodal representations via cross-modal attention for downstream tasks, PREMISE computes the multi-scale and multi-field representations, filters duplicated semantics, and then obtained a set of matching scores as feature vectors for the downstream recommendation task. This new architecture significantly boosts the performance for such multimodal tasks whose context matching content are highly correlated to the targets of that task, compared to the state-of-the-art fusion-based methods. Experimental results on two publicly available datasets show that PREMISE achieves promising performance with less computational cost.

A thorough understanding of the interaction between the target agent and surrounding agents is a prerequisite for accurate trajectory prediction. Although many methods have been explored, they assign correlation coefficients to surrounding agents in a purely learning-based manner. In this study, we present ASPILin, which manually selects interacting agents and replaces the attention scores in Transformer with a newly computed physical correlation coefficient, enhancing the interpretability of interaction modeling. Surprisingly, these simple modifications can significantly improve prediction performance and substantially reduce computational costs. We intentionally simplified our model in other aspects, such as map encoding. Remarkably, experiments conducted on the INTERACTION, highD, and CitySim datasets demonstrate that our method is efficient and straightforward, outperforming other state-of-the-art methods.

The stock market is extremely difficult to predict in the short term due to high market volatility, changes caused by news, and the non-linear nature of the financial time series. This research proposes a novel framework for improving minute-level prediction accuracy using semantic sentiment scores from top ten different large language models (LLMs) combined with minute interval intraday stock price data. We systematically constructed a time-aligned dataset of AAPL news articles and 1-minute Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock prices for the dates of April 4 to May 2, 2025. The sentiment analysis was achieved using the DeepSeek-V3, GPT variants, LLaMA, Claude, Gemini, Qwen, and Mistral models through their APIs. Each article obtained sentiment scores from all ten LLMs, which were scaled to a [0, 1] range and combined with prices and technical indicators like RSI, ROC, and Bollinger Band Width. Two state-of-the-art such as Reformer and Mamba were trained separately on the dataset using the sentiment scores produced by each LLM as input. Hyper parameters were optimized by means of Optuna and were evaluated through a 3-day evaluation period. Reformer had mean squared error (MSE) or the evaluation metrics, and it should be noted that Mamba performed not only faster but also better than Reformer for every LLM across the 10 LLMs tested. Mamba performed best with LLaMA 3.3--70B, with the lowest error of 0.137. While Reformer could capture broader trends within the data, the model appeared to over smooth sudden changes by the LLMs. This study highlights the potential of integrating LLM-based semantic analysis paired with efficient temporal modeling to enhance real-time financial forecasting.

AlphaFold confidence scores are widely used to rank protein complex predictions and to select subsets of models for downstream applications. Although these scores provide strong discriminatory power for distinguishing prediction quality, their numerical values were never intended to represent the probability that a prediction satisfies a given structural quality criterion. In this work, we calibrate commonly used confidence scores to estimate the probability that a predicted complex exceeds a chosen threshold of DockQ, an established measure of interface quality. On antibody-antigen and general multimer datasets, post-hoc isotonic calibration consistently improves agreement between predicted probabilities and observed DockQ success rates while preserving the underlying score ordering. The calibrated probabilities also provide more accurate estimates of the fraction of selected models expected to pass a given structural quality threshold. Although the mapping is fitted within a given prediction distribution and therefore transfers imperfectly across prediction domains, we show that reliable estimates are recovered from a small number of labeled target-domain samples. Because the calibration is entirely post hoc and requires no underlying AlphaFold model fine-tuning, it provides a straightforward and customizable way to convert existing model quality rankings into calibrated probabilities of passing a chosen structural quality threshold.

Accurate prediction of Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) scores from multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) remains challenging, more so than clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa) detection. Given the importance of lesion location in PI-RADS scoring, we evaluated whether incorporating prostate zonal masks improves PI-RADS prediction and csPCa detection across multiple architectures (3D ResNet-18, ResNet-50, and ViT) using a large-scale internal dataset. Anatomical guidance generally improved performance across architectures, with the best results achieved by ResNet-18 with 2-zone guidance for PI-RADS prediction (QWK = 0.511) and ResNet-50 with 5-zone guidance for csPCa detection (AUC = 0.809). Fine-tuned results on external datasets further demonstrated the benefits of anatomical guidance. Furthermore, models with anatomical guidance improved the utility of model-predicted PI-RADS scores for PI-RADS-based csPCa detection (positive defined as PI-RADS>=3). Combining model-predicted and expert-assigned PI-RADS scores significantly increased the AUC from 0.711 to 0.756 (p < 0.05), suggesting that AI-derived PI-RADS scores may provide complementary information to expert assessment for csPCa detection. Overall, our findings highlight the value of incorporating prostate zonal anatomy into deep learning-based prostate MRI assessment.

Interpretable time series prediction is crucial for safety-critical areas such as healthcare and autonomous driving. Most existing methods focus on interpreting predictions by assigning important scores to segments of time series. In this paper, we take a different and more challenging route and aim at developing a self-interpretable model, dubbed Counterfactual Time Series (CounTS), which generates counterfactual and actionable explanations for time series predictions. Specifically, we formalize the problem of time series counterfactual explanations, establish associated evaluation protocols, and propose a variational Bayesian deep learning model equipped with counterfactual inference capability of time series abduction, action, and prediction. Compared with state-of-the-art baselines, our self-interpretable model can generate better counterfactual explanations while maintaining comparable prediction accuracy.

A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of low-confidence predictions. Recent studies have shown that unsupervised pre-training produces large language models (LMs) whose conditional probabilities are remarkably well-calibrated. However, the most widely-used LMs are fine-tuned with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF-LMs), and some studies have suggested that RLHF-LMs produce conditional probabilities that are very poorly calibrated. In light of this perceived weakness, we conduct a broad evaluation of methods for extracting confidence scores from RLHF-LMs. For RLHF-LMs such as ChatGPT, GPT-4, and Claude, we find that verbalized confidences emitted as output tokens are typically better-calibrated than the model's conditional probabilities on the TriviaQA, SciQ, and TruthfulQA benchmarks, often reducing the expected calibration error by a relative 50%.

Current question-answering benchmarks predominantly focus on accuracy in realizable prediction tasks. Conditioned on a question and answer-key, does the most likely token match the ground truth? Such benchmarks necessarily fail to evaluate LLMs' ability to quantify ground-truth outcome uncertainty. In this work, we focus on the use of LLMs as risk scores for unrealizable prediction tasks. We introduce folktexts, a software package to systematically generate risk scores using LLMs, and evaluate them against US Census data products. A flexible API enables the use of different prompting schemes, local or web-hosted models, and diverse census columns that can be used to compose custom prediction tasks. We evaluate 17 recent LLMs across five proposed benchmark tasks. We find that zero-shot risk scores produced by multiple-choice question-answering have high predictive signal but are widely miscalibrated. Base models consistently overestimate outcome uncertainty, while instruction-tuned models underestimate uncertainty and produce over-confident risk scores. In fact, instruction-tuning polarizes answer distribution regardless of true underlying data uncertainty. This reveals a general inability of instruction-tuned LLMs to express data uncertainty using multiple-choice answers. A separate experiment using verbalized chat-style risk queries yields substantially improved calibration across instruction-tuned models. These differences in ability to quantify data uncertainty cannot be revealed in realizable settings, and highlight a blind-spot in the current evaluation ecosystem that folktexts covers.

Bone density prediction via CT scans to estimate T-scores is crucial, providing a more precise assessment of bone health compared to traditional methods like X-ray bone density tests, which lack spatial resolution and the ability to detect localized changes. However, CT-based prediction faces two major challenges: the high computational complexity of transformer-based architectures, which limits their deployment in portable and clinical settings, and the imbalanced, long-tailed distribution of real-world hospital data that skews predictions. To address these issues, we introduce MedConv, a convolutional model for bone density prediction that outperforms transformer models with lower computational demands. We also adapt Bal-CE loss and post-hoc logit adjustment to improve class balance. Extensive experiments on our AustinSpine dataset shows that our approach achieves up to 21% improvement in accuracy and 20% in ROC AUC over previous state-of-the-art methods.

Conformal prediction offers a powerful framework for building distribution-free prediction intervals for exchangeable data. Existing methods that extend conformal prediction to sequential data rely on fitting a relatively complex model to capture temporal dependencies. However, these methods can fail if the sample size is small and often require expensive retraining when the underlying data distribution changes. To overcome these limitations, we propose Reservoir Conformal Prediction (ResCP), a novel training-free conformal prediction method for time series. Our approach leverages the efficiency and representation learning capabilities of reservoir computing to dynamically reweight conformity scores. In particular, we compute similarity scores among reservoir states and use them to adaptively reweight the observed residuals at each step. With this approach, ResCP enables us to account for local temporal dynamics when modeling the error distribution without compromising computational scalability. We prove that, under reasonable assumptions, ResCP achieves asymptotic conditional coverage, and we empirically demonstrate its effectiveness across diverse forecasting tasks.

Large language models (LLMs) are widely applied across chemical tasks, such as molecular property prediction, which underpins drug discovery. Molecular LLMs represent a molecule through several modalities, notably a 1D SMILES sequence or a 2D molecular graph. Both encode molecular information implicitly, so the contribution of individual substructures remains opaque. Retrieval and augmentation methods add context, but from external sources. However, the cues chemists reason over are the internal substructures that drive a property up or down. We propose MR-MoL, a multi-granular rationale-guided molecular LLM that supplies this evidence directly. A fine-tuned GNN scores each substructure through masking, and the most influential ones are serialized as a ranked, direction-tagged rationale that the LLM reads alongside the SMILES sequence and molecular graph. The rationale spans three levels of granularity: Murcko scaffolds with their side chains, BRICS fragments, and functional groups. This is, to our knowledge, the first method to expose GNN-derived attributions to an LLM as evidence for property prediction. On eight MoleculeNet tasks, MR-MoL achieves the best overall results among generalist models and narrows the gap to specialist models tuned for each task. Five diagnostics further confirm that the model reads the rationale rather than merely benefiting from its presence. Its direction, rank, and substructure each shape the prediction, and its attributions reproduce known structure-property relationships.

CPU performance prediction, which involves forecasting the performance scores of a CPU based on its hardware characteristics during its operation, is a critical technology for computational system design and resource management in the big data era. However, this research field currently faces two significant challenges. First, collecting real-world data is challenging due to the wide variety of CPU products on the market and the highly specialized nature of relevant hardware characteristics. In the research process, this field lacks a standard dataset with unified hardware characteristics, wide data coverage, and comprehensive benchmarks. Second, existing methods based on hardware simulation models or machine learning exhibit notable shortcomings, such as lengthy simulation test cycles and low prediction accuracy. To bridge these gaps, we first collect, preprocess, and standardize historical data from the 4th Generation Intel Xeon Scalable Processors across multiple benchmark suites to create a new dataset, named PerfCastDB. Subsequently, we design a deep learning based model called Nova CPU Performance Predictor (NCPP) as the baseline for this new dataset. The NCPP network is designed based on group attention mechanism. It effectively quantifies the implicit relationships between hardware characteristics within and across groups and comprehensively models the impact of various hardware characteristics on CPU performance prediction. We conduct comparative experiments using the proposed PerfCastDB dataset. Compared to existing approaches, NCPP achieves superior evaluation results, demonstrating its effectiveness. Furthermore, we have open-sourced part of the dataset and the NCPP network code to facilitate subsequent research. The resources can be accessed at https://github.com/xiaoman-liu/NCPP.

The SYNTAX score has become a widely used measure of coronary disease severity , crucial in selecting the optimal mode of revascularization. This paper introduces a new medical regression and classification problem - automatically estimating SYNTAX score from coronary angiography. Our study presents a comprehensive dataset of 1,844 patients, featuring a balanced distribution of individuals with zero and non-zero scores. This dataset includes a first-of-its-kind, complete coronary angiography samples captured through a multi-view X-ray video, allowing one to observe coronary arteries from multiple perspectives. Furthermore, we present a novel, fully automatic end-to-end method for estimating the SYNTAX. For such a difficult task, we have achieved a solid coefficient of determination R2 of 0.51 in score predictions.

3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has emerged as a leading technology for high-quality 3D scene reconstruction. However, the iterative refinement and densification process leads to the generation of a large number of primitives, each contributing to the reconstruction to a substantially different extent. Estimating primitive importance is thus crucial, both for removing redundancy during reconstruction and for enabling efficient compression and transmission. Existing methods typically rely on rendering-based analyses, where each primitive is evaluated through its contribution across multiple camera viewpoints. However, such methods are sensitive to the number and selection of views, rely on specialized differentiable rasterizers, and have long calculation times that grow linearly with view count, making them difficult to integrate as plug-and-play modules and limiting scalability and generalization. To address these issues, we propose RAP, a fast feedforward rendering-free attribute-guided method for efficient importance score prediction in 3DGS. RAP infers primitive significance directly from intrinsic Gaussian attributes and local neighborhood statistics, avoiding rendering-based or visibility-dependent computations. A compact MLP predicts per-primitive importance scores using rendering loss, pruning-aware loss, and significance distribution regularization. After training on a small set of scenes, RAP generalizes effectively to unseen data and can be seamlessly integrated into reconstruction, compression, and transmission pipelines. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/yyyykf/RAP.

Large language models (LLMs) are now regularly asked to forecast real-world events, but comparisons are often difficult because models receive different information, use different tools, and are evaluated under different rules. This paper reports the completed AI World Cup benchmark, in which ten LLM-based assistants made a single pre-tournament forecast of the entire 2026 FIFA World Cup. Every submission used the same tournament snapshot, prompt, JSON schema, and scoring procedure. The forecasts covered group-stage scores, group rankings, the knockout bracket, final placings, confidence values, and short explanations. After all 104 matches had been played, GPT-5.5 Thinking finished first with 744 points, followed by GPT-5.5 with 717, Gemini with 699, and Qwen 3.7 with 687. GPT-5.5 Thinking was also the only model to select Spain, which defeated Argentina 1--0 in the final, as champion. The final ranking was driven mainly by knockout performance: total score was strongly correlated with knockout points (r=0.986), but showed little relationship with group-stage match points (r=0.055), group-standing points (r=-0.103), or their combined pre-knockout score (r=-0.054). Match-level accuracy produced a different ordering. Claude Sonnet 4.6 correctly predicted the largest number of group-stage outcomes (63.89\%) but placed sixth overall. Average self-reported confidence was also unrelated to either outcome accuracy (r=-0.060) or total score (r=-0.067). The results suggest that forecasting a complete tournament tests something different from predicting matches one at a time, while also showing how strongly a bracket-based leaderboard can depend on scoring design. The benchmark materials, raw responses, and scoring code are released to support replication and future extensions.

GBPP is a fast learning based scorer that selects a robot base pose for grasping from a single RGB-D snapshot. The method uses a two stage curriculum: (1) a simple distance-visibility rule auto-labels a large dataset at low cost; and (2) a smaller set of high fidelity simulation trials refines the model to match true grasp outcomes. A PointNet++ style point cloud encoder with an MLP scores dense grids of candidate poses, enabling rapid online selection without full task-and-motion optimization. In simulation and on a real mobile manipulator, GBPP outperforms proximity and geometry only baselines, choosing safer and more reachable stances and degrading gracefully when wrong. The results offer a practical recipe for data efficient, geometry aware base placement: use inexpensive heuristics for coverage, then calibrate with targeted simulation.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for large language models (LLMs) aims to provide reliable measures of predictive confidence, yet current methods are often unstable under meaning-preserving perturbations. Semantically equivalent paraphrases can induce substantial variability in predictive confidence, even for methods with formal guarantees, such as conformal prediction. To address this issue, we propose a paraphrase-aware UQ framework robust to semantic rewordings. Our approach trains a lightweight proxy model on LLM hidden states and aggregates its predictions across paraphrases to construct label-wise nonconformity scores. Under score exchangeability, conformal calibration retains marginal coverage. This guarantee can also hold under test-only rewording, provided that the paraphrase pipeline satisfies an additional distributional alignment condition. We evaluate three settings (normal, fully reworded, and semi-reworded) which apply rewording to neither dataset, both calibration and test datasets, or only the test dataset, respectively. Across seven multiple-choice QA benchmarks and multiple model families, our method produces compact prediction sets with empirical coverage generally near the nominal target, even in the semi-reworded setting. Ablation studies show that the learned proxy accounts for most of the reduction in set size, while paraphrase-augmented training and inference-time aggregation improve stability under rewording. Code is available at https://github.com/Raina-Xin/PA_Score.

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

The popularity of social media has created problems such as hate speech and sexism. The identification and classification of sexism in social media are very relevant tasks, as they would allow building a healthier social environment. Nevertheless, these tasks are considerably challenging. This work proposes a system to use multilingual and monolingual BERT and data points translation and ensemble strategies for sexism identification and classification in English and Spanish. It was conducted in the context of the sEXism Identification in Social neTworks shared 2021 (EXIST 2021) task, proposed by the Iberian Languages Evaluation Forum (IberLEF). The proposed system and its main components are described, and an in-depth hyperparameters analysis is conducted. The main results observed were: (i) the system obtained better results than the baseline model (multilingual BERT); (ii) ensemble models obtained better results than monolingual models; and (iii) an ensemble model considering all individual models and the best standardized values obtained the best accuracies and F1-scores for both tasks. This work obtained first place in both tasks at EXIST, with the highest accuracies (0.780 for task 1 and 0.658 for task 2) and F1-scores (F1-binary of 0.780 for task 1 and F1-macro of 0.579 for task 2).

Adverse drug events (ADEs) significantly impact clinical research, causing many clinical trial failures. ADE prediction is key for developing safer medications and enhancing patient outcomes. To support this effort, we introduce CT-ADE, a dataset for multilabel predictive modeling of ADEs in monopharmacy treatments. CT-ADE integrates data from 2,497 unique drugs, encompassing 168,984 drug-ADE pairs extracted from clinical trials, annotated with patient and contextual information, and comprehensive ADE concepts standardized across multiple levels of the MedDRA ontology. Preliminary analyses with large language models (LLMs) achieved F1-scores up to 55.90%. Models using patient and contextual information showed F1-score improvements of 21%-38% over models using only chemical structure data. Our results highlight the importance of target population and treatment regimens in the predictive modeling of ADEs, offering greater performance gains than LLM domain specialization and scaling. CT-ADE provides an essential tool for researchers aiming to leverage artificial intelligence and machine learning to enhance patient safety and minimize the impact of ADEs on pharmaceutical research and development. The dataset is publicly accessible at https://github.com/ds4dh/CT-ADE.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are discovered to suffer from accurately retrieving key information. To address this, we propose Mask-Enhanced Autoregressive Prediction (MEAP), a simple yet effective training paradigm that seamlessly integrates Masked Language Modeling (MLM) into Next-Token Prediction (NTP) to enhance the latter's in-context retrieval capabilities. Specifically, MEAP first randomly masks a small fraction of input tokens and then directly performs the standard next-token prediction autoregressive using a decoder-only Transformer. MEAP eliminates the need for bidirectional attention or encoder-decoder architectures for MLM, incurring no additional computational overhead during pre-training or inference. Intensive experiments demonstrate that MEAP substantially outperforms NTP on key information retrieval and long-context reasoning tasks, while performing on par or better on commonsense reasoning tasks. The benefits of MEAP also extend to supervised fine-tuning, where it shows remarkable advantages in lost-in-the-middle scenarios, outperforming NTP by 11.77 percentage points. Our analysis indicates that MEAP's effectiveness arises from its ability to promote more distinguishable attention scores by concentrating on a reduced set of non-masked tokens. This mechanism improves the model's focus on task-relevant signals while mitigating the influence of peripheral context. These findings position MEAP as a promising training paradigm for large language models.

Aspect sentiment quadruple prediction (ASQP) facilitates a detailed understanding of opinions expressed in a text by identifying the opinion term, aspect term, aspect category and sentiment polarity for each opinion. However, annotating a full set of training examples to fine-tune models for ASQP is a resource-intensive process. In this study, we explore the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) for zero- and few-shot learning on the ASQP task across five diverse datasets. We report F1 scores slightly below those obtained with state-of-the-art fine-tuned models but exceeding previously reported zero- and few-shot performance. In the 40-shot setting on the Rest16 restaurant domain dataset, LLMs achieved an F1 score of 52.46, compared to 60.39 by the best-performing fine-tuned method MVP. Additionally, we report the performance of LLMs in target aspect sentiment detection (TASD), where the F1 scores were also close to fine-tuned models, achieving 66.03 on Rest16 in the 40-shot setting, compared to 72.76 with MVP. While human annotators remain essential for achieving optimal performance, LLMs can reduce the need for extensive manual annotation in ASQP tasks.

Histopathological analysis is a cornerstone of cancer diagnosis, with Hematoxylin and Eosin (H&E) staining routinely acquired for every patient to visualize cell morphology and tissue architecture. On the other hand, multiplex immunofluorescence (mIF) enables more precise cell type identification via proteomic markers, but has yet to achieve widespread clinical adoption due to cost and logistical constraints. To bridge this gap, we introduce MIPHEI (Multiplex Immunofluorescence Prediction from H&E), a U-Net-inspired architecture that integrates state-of-the-art ViT foundation models as encoders to predict mIF signals from H&E images. MIPHEI targets a comprehensive panel of markers spanning nuclear content, immune lineages (T cells, B cells, myeloid), epithelium, stroma, vasculature, and proliferation. We train our model using the publicly available ORION dataset of restained H&E and mIF images from colorectal cancer tissue, and validate it on two independent datasets. MIPHEI achieves accurate cell-type classification from H&E alone, with F1 scores of 0.88 for Pan-CK, 0.57 for CD3e, 0.56 for SMA, 0.36 for CD68, and 0.30 for CD20, substantially outperforming both a state-of-the-art baseline and a random classifier for most markers. Our results indicate that our model effectively captures the complex relationships between nuclear morphologies in their tissue context, as visible in H&E images and molecular markers defining specific cell types. MIPHEI offers a promising step toward enabling cell-type-aware analysis of large-scale H&E datasets, in view of uncovering relationships between spatial cellular organization and patient outcomes.

Risk scores are simple classification models that let users make quick risk predictions by adding and subtracting a few small numbers. These models are widely used in medicine and criminal justice, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be calibrated, sparse, use small integer coefficients, and obey application-specific operational constraints. In this paper, we present a new machine learning approach to learn risk scores. We formulate the risk score problem as a mixed integer nonlinear program, and present a cutting plane algorithm for non-convex settings to efficiently recover its optimal solution. We improve our algorithm with specialized techniques to generate feasible solutions, narrow the optimality gap, and reduce data-related computation. Our approach can fit risk scores in a way that scales linearly in the number of samples, provides a certificate of optimality, and obeys real-world constraints without parameter tuning or post-processing. We benchmark the performance benefits of this approach through an extensive set of numerical experiments, comparing to risk scores built using heuristic approaches. We also discuss its practical benefits through a real-world application where we build a customized risk score for ICU seizure prediction in collaboration with the Massachusetts General Hospital.

Machine learning models routinely automate decisions in applications like lending and hiring. In such settings, consumer protection rules require companies that deploy models to explain predictions to decision subjects. These rules are motivated, in part, by the belief that explanations can promote recourse by revealing information that individuals can use to contest or improve their outcomes. In practice, many companies comply with these rules by providing individuals with a list of the most important features for their prediction, which they identify based on feature importance scores from feature attribution methods such as SHAP or LIME. In this work, we show how these practices can undermine consumers by highlighting features that would not lead to an improved outcome and by explaining predictions that cannot be changed. We propose to address these issues by highlighting features based on their responsiveness score -- i.e., the probability that an individual can attain a target prediction by changing a specific feature. We develop efficient methods to compute responsiveness scores for any model and any dataset. We conduct an extensive empirical study on the responsiveness of explanations in lending. Our results show that standard practices in consumer finance can backfire by presenting consumers with reasons without recourse, and demonstrate how our approach improves consumer protection by highlighting responsive features and identifying fixed predictions.

Peripheral blood smears remain a cornerstone in the diagnosis of hematological neoplasms, offering rapid and valuable insights that inform subsequent diagnostic steps. However, since neoplastic transformations typically arise in the bone marrow, they may not manifest as detectable aberrations in peripheral blood, presenting a diagnostic challenge. In this paper, we introduce cAItomorph, an explainable transformer-based AI model, trained to classify hematological malignancies based on peripheral blood cytomorphology. Our data comprises peripheral blood single-cell images from 6115 patients with diagnoses confirmed by cytomorphology, cytogenetics, molecular genetics, and immunophenotyping from bone marrow samples, and 495 healthy controls, eight coarse classes. cAItomorph leverages the DinoBloom hematology foundation model and aggregates image encodings via a transformer-based architecture into a single vector. It achieves an overall accuracy of 0.72 in eight disease classification, with F1 scores of 0.76 for acute leukemia, 0.80 for myeloproliferative neoplasms and 0.94 for healthy cases. The overall accuracy increases to 0.87 in top-2 predictions. cAItomorph achieves high sensitivity for acute leukemia cases in external test sets. By analyzing attention heads, we demonstrate clinically relevant cell-level attentions in both internal and external test sets. Moreover, our model's calibrated prediction probabilities reduce the false discovery rate from 13.5% to 8.7% without missing any acute leukemia cases, thereby decreasing the number of unnecessary bone marrow aspirations based on peripheral blood smears. This study highlights the potential of AI-assisted diagnostics in hematological malignancies, illustrating how models trained on real-world data could enhance diagnostic accuracy and reduce invasive procedures.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) enhances factual grounding in large language models (LLMs) by incorporating retrieved evidence, but LLM accuracy declines when long or noisy contexts exceed the model's effective attention span. Existing pre-generation filters rely on heuristics or uncalibrated LLM confidence scores, offering no statistical control over retained evidence. We evaluate and demonstrate context engineering through conformal prediction, a coverage-controlled filtering framework that removes irrelevant content while preserving recall of supporting evidence. Using both embedding- and LLM-based scoring functions, we test this approach on the NeuCLIR and RAGTIME collections. Conformal filtering consistently meets its target coverage, ensuring that a specified fraction of relevant snippets are retained, and reduces retained context by 2-3x relative to unfiltered retrieval. On NeuCLIR, downstream factual accuracy measured by ARGUE F1 improves under strict filtering and remains stable at moderate coverage, indicating that most discarded material is redundant or irrelevant. These results demonstrate that conformal prediction enables reliable, coverage-controlled context reduction in RAG, offering a model-agnostic and principled approach to context engineering.

A language model's prediction of its next token develops across layers, and lens methods track this process by decoding intermediate hidden states into tokens. But a lens reading reflects both the hidden state and the readout (the unembedding matrix) used to decode it. Many lenses are fit on a corpus, and we show that two lenses differing only in their fitting corpus can report different tokens for the same hidden states. We call this dependence corpus conditionality. To examine readout structure independently of the fitting corpus, we introduce Sparse Readout Prism (SRP), which decomposes the readout using only its weights and expresses any token logit or logit difference as a sum of contributions from sparse readout features. This reveals readout features as a new unit of analysis for lens readings, exposing structure that token identities can obscure and enabling comparisons across tokens, contexts, layers, and lenses. Replacing the original readout with SRP's sparse approximation reconstructs 8.9-17.3 percentage points more of the tested logit differences than the strongest of six baselines built on geometric relations among readout rows. Ablating features shifts logit differences in proportion to their SRP contributions. Although token readings vary with the fitting corpus, the dominant readout feature remains stable. Because SRP uses no corpus in its construction, it provides a control independent of the fitting corpus for lens analyses.

Masked latent prediction has emerged as a leading paradigm in self-supervised learning (SSL), especially for general audio and music representation learning. While recent methods have demonstrated strong performance, the role of the predictor module used at the output of such SSL systems remains mainly overlooked, despite being crucial for solving the pretext task at hand. In particular, this module should be able to deal with the ambiguity inherent in audio content, especially when it is composed of multiple sound sources. This work proposes a novel enhancement: integrating Multiple Choice Learning (MCL) to explicitly model prediction ambiguity and improve representation quality. We build on top of the recently proposed MATPAC system, improving its prediction and unsupervised classification pretext tasks with MCL. We extensively evaluate our method, MATPAC++, through both linear probing across multiple downstream tasks and fine-tuning on AudioSet, employing a unified protocol that enables rigorous and fair comparisons with state-of-the-art SSL approaches. Results show that our proposal achieves state-of-the-art when fine-tuned on AudioSet and overall state-of-the-art scores on downstream tasks. Additionally, we examine domain specialisation by training exclusively on music data, where our model achieves state-of-the-art performance with significantly improved efficiency.

Predicting cellular responses to genetic perturbations helps prioritize experiments in single-cell genomics, where exhaustive measurement is infeasible. While computational models increasingly predict these responses, three evaluation deficiencies obscure what their scores demonstrate. First, absolute metrics cannot separate target-specific predictions from a shared background response. Second, common metrics remain high under gene shuffling, so gene-level accuracy is never verified. Third, a score at one training size says nothing about coverage, which depends on representation-space proximity and response-constraining power. We propose AmbiModBench, a specificity-aware, gene-resolved and coverage-aware benchmark. It pairs every score with a training-mean reference fitted on the same split, screens each readout by gene-coordinate permutation, and links embedding distance to response variation. Across K562, RPE1 and Norman, strong absolute scores largely reflect shared background rather than target-specific learning. Widely used readouts track response magnitude distributions rather than the affected genes. Detectable gain follows representation-space coverage rather than training-set size. Nonetheless, on RPE1 the protocol yields a reproducible target-specific gain across five additional splits and three gene selections, which absolute scores alone cannot distinguish from shared background.

Machine learning classification tasks often benefit from predicting a set of possible labels with confidence scores to capture uncertainty. However, existing methods struggle with the high-dimensional nature of the data and the lack of well-calibrated probabilities from modern classification models. We propose a novel conformal prediction method that employs a rank-based score function suitable for classification models that predict the order of labels correctly, even if not well-calibrated. Our approach constructs prediction sets that achieve the desired coverage rate while managing their size. We provide a theoretical analysis of the expected size of the conformal prediction sets based on the rank distribution of the underlying classifier. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our method outperforms existing techniques on various datasets, providing reliable uncertainty quantification. Our contributions include a novel conformal prediction method, theoretical analysis, and empirical evaluation. This work advances the practical deployment of machine learning systems by enabling reliable uncertainty quantification.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are able to achieve high classification accuracy on many important real world datasets, but provide no rigorous notion of predictive uncertainty. Quantifying the confidence of GNN models is difficult due to the dependence between datapoints induced by the graph structure. We leverage recent advances in conformal prediction to construct prediction sets for node classification in inductive learning scenarios. We do this by taking an existing approach for conformal classification that relies on exchangeable data and modifying it by appropriately weighting the conformal scores to reflect the network structure. We show through experiments on standard benchmark datasets using popular GNN models that our approach provides tighter and better calibrated prediction sets than a naive application of conformal prediction.

This paper describes the performance of the team cs60075_team2 at SemEval 2021 Task 1 - Lexical Complexity Prediction. The main contribution of this paper is to fine-tune transformer-based language models pre-trained on several text corpora, some being general (E.g., Wikipedia, BooksCorpus), some being the corpora from which the CompLex Dataset was extracted, and others being from other specific domains such as Finance, Law, etc. We perform ablation studies on selecting the transformer models and how their individual complexity scores are aggregated to get the resulting complexity scores. Our method achieves a best Pearson Correlation of 0.784 in sub-task 1 (single word) and 0.836 in sub-task 2 (multiple word expressions).

This paper addresses a critical challenge in cybersecurity: the gap between vulnerability information represented by Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVEs) and the resulting cyberattack actions. CVEs provide insights into vulnerabilities, but often lack details on potential threat actions (tactics, techniques, and procedures, or TTPs) within the ATT&CK framework. This gap hinders accurate CVE categorization and proactive countermeasure initiation. The paper introduces the TTPpredictor tool, which uses innovative techniques to analyze CVE descriptions and infer plausible TTP attacks resulting from CVE exploitation. TTPpredictor overcomes challenges posed by limited labeled data and semantic disparities between CVE and TTP descriptions. It initially extracts threat actions from unstructured cyber threat reports using Semantic Role Labeling (SRL) techniques. These actions, along with their contextual attributes, are correlated with MITRE's attack functionality classes. This automated correlation facilitates the creation of labeled data, essential for categorizing novel threat actions into threat functionality classes and TTPs. The paper presents an empirical assessment, demonstrating TTPpredictor's effectiveness with accuracy rates of approximately 98% and F1-scores ranging from 95% to 98% in precise CVE classification to ATT&CK techniques. TTPpredictor outperforms state-of-the-art language model tools like ChatGPT. Overall, this paper offers a robust solution for linking CVEs to potential attack techniques, enhancing cybersecurity practitioners' ability to proactively identify and mitigate threats.

This paper contributes a novel and modularized learning-based method for aerial robots navigating cluttered environments containing hard-to-perceive thin obstacles without assuming access to a map or the full pose estimation of the robot. The proposed solution builds upon a semantically-enhanced Variational Autoencoder that is trained with both real-world and simulated depth images to compress the input data, while preserving semantically-labeled thin obstacles and handling invalid pixels in the depth sensor's output. This compressed representation, in addition to the robot's partial state involving its linear/angular velocities and its attitude are then utilized to train an uncertainty-aware 3D Collision Prediction Network in simulation to predict collision scores for candidate action sequences in a predefined motion primitives library. A set of simulation and experimental studies in cluttered environments with various sizes and types of obstacles, including multiple hard-to-perceive thin objects, were conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed method and compare against an end-to-end trained baseline. The results demonstrate the benefits of the proposed semantically-enhanced deep collision prediction for learning-based autonomous navigation.

In this work, we present a network-specific approach for predicting brain responses to complex multimodal movies, leveraging the Yeo 7-network parcellation of the Schaefer atlas. Rather than treating the brain as a homogeneous system, we grouped the seven functional networks into four clusters and trained separate multi-subject, multi-layer perceptron (MLP) models for each. This architecture supports cluster-specific optimization and adaptive memory modeling, allowing each model to adjust temporal dynamics and modality weighting based on the functional role of its target network. Our results demonstrate that this clustered strategy significantly enhances prediction accuracy across the 1,000 cortical regions of the Schaefer atlas. The final model achieved an eighth-place ranking in the Algonauts Project 2025 Challenge, with out-of-distribution (OOD) correlation scores nearly double those of the baseline model used in the selection phase. Code is available at https://github.com/Corsi01/algo2025.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

GUI grounding, which translates natural language instructions into precise pixel coordinates, is essential for developing practical GUI agents. However, we observe that existing grounding models exhibit significant coordinate prediction instability, minor visual perturbations (e.g. cropping a few pixels) can drastically alter predictions, flipping results between correct and incorrect. This instability severely undermines model performance, especially for samples with high-resolution and small UI elements. To address this issue, we propose Multi-View Prediction (MVP), a training-free framework that enhances grounding performance through multi-view inference. Our key insight is that while single-view predictions may be unstable, aggregating predictions from multiple carefully cropped views can effectively distinguish correct coordinates from outliers. MVP comprises two components: (1) Attention-Guided View Proposal, which derives diverse views guided by instruction-to-image attention scores, and (2) Multi-Coordinates Clustering, which ensembles predictions by selecting the centroid of the densest spatial cluster. Extensive experiments demonstrate MVP's effectiveness across various models and benchmarks. Notably, on ScreenSpot-Pro, MVP boosts UI-TARS-1.5-7B to 56.1%, GTA1-7B to 61.7%, Qwen3VL-8B-Instruct to 65.3%, and Qwen3VL-32B-Instruct to 74.0%. The code is available at https://github.com/ZJUSCL/MVP.

Powerful generative AI models of protein-ligand structure have recently been proposed, but few of these methods support both flexible protein-ligand docking and affinity estimation. Of those that do, none can directly model multiple binding ligands concurrently or have been rigorously benchmarked on pharmacologically relevant drug targets, hindering their widespread adoption in drug discovery efforts. In this work, we propose FlowDock, the first deep geometric generative model based on conditional flow matching that learns to directly map unbound (apo) structures to their bound (holo) counterparts for an arbitrary number of binding ligands. Furthermore, FlowDock provides predicted structural confidence scores and binding affinity values with each of its generated protein-ligand complex structures, enabling fast virtual screening of new (multi-ligand) drug targets. For the well-known PoseBusters Benchmark dataset, FlowDock outperforms single-sequence AlphaFold 3 with a 51% blind docking success rate using unbound (apo) protein input structures and without any information derived from multiple sequence alignments, and for the challenging new DockGen-E dataset, FlowDock outperforms single-sequence AlphaFold 3 and matches single-sequence Chai-1 for binding pocket generalization. Additionally, in the ligand category of the 16th community-wide Critical Assessment of Techniques for Structure Prediction (CASP16), FlowDock ranked among the top-5 methods for pharmacological binding affinity estimation across 140 protein-ligand complexes, demonstrating the efficacy of its learned representations in virtual screening. Source code, data, and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/BioinfoMachineLearning/FlowDock.

Speech quality assessment is a critical process in selecting text-to-speech synthesis (TTS) or voice conversion models. Evaluation of voice synthesis can be done using objective metrics or subjective metrics. Although there are many objective metrics like the Perceptual Evaluation of Speech Quality (PESQ), Perceptual Objective Listening Quality Assessment (POLQA) or Short-Time Objective Intelligibility (STOI) but none of them is feasible in selecting the best model. On the other hand subjective metric like Mean Opinion Score is highly reliable but it requires a lot of manual efforts and are time-consuming. To counter the issues in MOS Evaluation, we have developed a novel model, Speaker Agnostic Latent Features (SALF)-Mean Opinion Score (MOS) which is a small-sized, end-to-end, highly generalized and scalable model for predicting MOS score on a scale of 5. We use the sequences of convolutions and stack them to get the latent features of the audio samples to get the best state-of-the-art results based on mean squared error (MSE), Linear Concordance Correlation coefficient (LCC), Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient (SRCC) and Kendall Rank Correlation Coefficient (KTAU).

The volatility and complex dynamics of cryptocurrency markets present unique challenges for accurate price forecasting. This research proposes a hybrid deep learning and machine learning model that integrates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) for cryptocurrency price prediction. The LSTM component captures temporal dependencies in historical price data, while XGBoost enhances prediction by modeling nonlinear relationships with auxiliary features such as sentiment scores and macroeconomic indicators. The model is evaluated on historical datasets of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and Litecoin, incorporating both global and localized exchange data. Comparative analysis using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Min-Max Normalized Root Mean Square Error (MinMax RMSE) demonstrates that the LSTM+XGBoost hybrid consistently outperforms standalone models and traditional forecasting methods. This study underscores the potential of hybrid architectures in financial forecasting and provides insights into model adaptability across different cryptocurrencies and market contexts.

Objective: To propose and retrospectively validate an integrated framework addressing three barriers to clinical translation of readmission prediction: lack of explainability, absence of deployment reliability infrastructure, and inadequate demographic fairness evaluation. Materials and Methods: We constructed a cohort of 415231 adult admissions from the MIMIC-IV database (30-day readmission prevalence 18.0%), split 70/15/15. Logistic regression, XGBoost, and LightGBM models were trained on 26 features. SHAP provided per-patient explanations. Fairness was evaluated across 16 subgroups using AUC-ROC, false negative rate (FNR), and positive predictive value (PPV). Calibration was assessed using Brier scores and calibration curves. Results: XGBoost achieved AUC-ROC 0.696 (95% CI 0.691-0.701), outperforming or matching the LACE baseline (AUC 0.60-0.68). LightGBM achieved best calibration (Brier 0.146). Prior admissions were the dominant predictor. All subgroups met equity thresholds (delta AUC <= 0.05, delta FNR <= 0.10). Conclusion: This framework delivers competitive performance, clinically actionable explanations, and strong demographic equity. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/Tomisin92/readmission-prediction.

Convolutional image classifiers can achieve high predictive accuracy, but quantifying their uncertainty remains an unresolved challenge, hindering their deployment in consequential settings. Existing uncertainty quantification techniques, such as Platt scaling, attempt to calibrate the network's probability estimates, but they do not have formal guarantees. We present an algorithm that modifies any classifier to output a predictive set containing the true label with a user-specified probability, such as 90%. The algorithm is simple and fast like Platt scaling, but provides a formal finite-sample coverage guarantee for every model and dataset. Our method modifies an existing conformal prediction algorithm to give more stable predictive sets by regularizing the small scores of unlikely classes after Platt scaling. In experiments on both Imagenet and Imagenet-V2 with ResNet-152 and other classifiers, our scheme outperforms existing approaches, achieving coverage with sets that are often factors of 5 to 10 smaller than a stand-alone Platt scaling baseline.

Predicting how a cell will change its transcriptional state under a developmental signal or a genetic perturbation is the computational core of in-silico biology and the AI Virtual Cell program. Existing approaches either fit static control-to-treated maps that discard time, or solve multi-step ODE / Schrödinger-bridge problems on each dataset independently. We introduce Chreode, a one-step cell world model that predicts action-conditioned cell-state transitions through a structured residual transition operator. It shifts distributional evolution from inference time to training time, enabling single-pass generation while preserving a Waddington-inspired decomposition into downhill landscape flow, rotational in-tangent dynamics, and stochastic spread. The model is pretrained with a shared scVI encoder and a DiT-based dynamics backbone on a 2.4M-cell mouse embryonic atlas spanning 7 datasets. As a fine-tuning initialization, Chreode improves per-target Sinkhorn distance on Weinreb hematopoiesis and Veres islet differentiation over matched scratch models, PI-SDE, and PRESCIENT. As a transferable gene-state embedding for GEARS, the pretrained dynamics representation reduces shared-vocabulary DE20 mean squared error on Norman Perturb-seq from 0.2121 to 0.1858, a 12.4% relative improvement, without changing the GEARS training procedure. We interpret this transfer to perturbation prediction as evidence that pretrained developmental-trajectory dynamics encode differentiation primitives transferable to CRISPR-induced state shifts, since both involve cell-state transitions in a shared latent geometry. The pretrained backbone additionally produces zero-shot clonal fate scores on Weinreb that are competitive with strong dynamic-OT baselines.

Clinical early warning systems built on irregularly sampled medical time series (ISMTS) from electronic health records must deliver continuous risk scores for patient triage as well as interpretable rationales that clinicians can verify. Large language models (LLMs) are uniquely positioned for both, deriving risk from their output probabilities and rationales from their medical knowledge. However, we find that conventional LLM reasoning collapses graded risk into overconfident predictions and thereby undermines the cross-patient comparability on which triage depends. We refer to this failure mode as risk polarization and identify two underlying behaviors: early commitment to a single outcome, and one-sided reasoning that focuses only on the evidence for that outcome. To address this, we propose TRIAGE, a framework that trains an LLM to reason dialectically over competing clinical outcomes by eliciting outcome-specific rationales. This dialectical formulation mitigates risk polarization, enabling a single LLM to jointly provide explicit clinical rationales and risk scores comparable across patients. Across five ISMTS benchmarks, TRIAGE improves mean AUPRC by 17.0% and reduces mean calibration error by 82.8% relative to the competitive LLM-based baseline, while surpassing the strongest ISMTS baseline by 3.5% in mean AUPRC.

Data-centric curation pipelines frequently rely on model confidence scores to flag and filter noisy or mislabeled training instances. Evaluating this filtering convention on a large-scale consumer lending sample (LendingClub, N = 1,344,936) uncovers an underlying demographic asymmetry: high-income defaulters are disproportionately classified as label noise relative to low-income defaulters (Cramer's V approximately 0.03-0.07). Re-examining this behavior through the lens of equal opportunity [Hardt et al., 2016] reveals a far more severe discrepancy: a 16.86 percentage point gap in true positive rate (recall) between high- and low-income borrowers who ultimately defaulted. Implementing a sequential feature-blinding methodology allows us to isolate the drivers of this disparity across three distinct mechanisms: (1) direct reliance on self-reported applicant income; (2) algorithmic absorption of upstream institutional bias encoded within origination interest rates; and (3) a residual disparity (3.55 percentage points in cross-validation; 2.56 percentage points on a held-out test partition, Z = -4.04, p < 0.0001) that remains even after purging both income and interest rates from the model. Out-of-sample signed SHAP valuations demonstrate that this residual gap is maintained by structural proxies, most notably loan amount and home ownership status. These empirical findings show that simply blinding an algorithm to sensitive attributes fails to ensure fairness when institutional pricing decisions and behavioral proxy variables collectively reconstruct the omitted signals. We outline the practical implications of these findings for auditing data-centric AI workflows within regulated financial institutions.

Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free prediction intervals for fixed forecasters, but its standard calibration procedure is often inefficient for time series data, where forecast errors are temporally dependent and change across time and operating conditions. Recent time series CP methods improve local calibration using recent, weighted, or localized residuals. Yet local calibration can remain indirect, since broad residual weighting or additional adaptation procedures may dilute the evidence most relevant to the current prediction. This motivates a simple retrieval and correction strategy that selects similar past residuals as local evidence and then corrects the coverage error left by retrieval. In this paper, we propose Retrieval--Corrected Conformal Prediction (RCCP), a retrieval-augmented calibration method for time series prediction intervals. RCCP builds an asymmetric interval from retrieved one-sided residuals and calibrates its normalized retrieval error with a scalar conformal correction. Thus, retrieval provides local residual evidence, while conformal correction determines the final scale needed for coverage. We provide a coverage-gap bound based on the stability of the normalized retrieval error distribution. Across standard benchmarks and backbone forecasters, RCCP attains the target coverage in every setting and achieves the lowest Winkler scores, with fewer severe misses. RCCP also achieves low calibration and inference overhead, showing that retrieval-corrected calibration is an effective and scalable approach to uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/jinsaaang/rccp.

Across scientific domains, empirical data often give rise to positive semidefinite matrices that encode similarities, couplings or interactions and induce natural geometries. We investigate whether changing the geometry used to compare the same empirical representations preserves subject-level performance and the local structures from which explanations are derived, a question we term the prediction explanation invariance problem. We address this problem across morphometric MRI, fMRI and EEG data by comparing Frobenius and trace geometries applied to the same empirical matrices. Predictive performance was broadly preserved across geometries, but comparable performance did not imply agreement in subject-level decision scores or predicted labels. Predictive similarity also masked geometry-dependent differences in local neighbourhoods, perturbation sensitivities and explanatory rankings. Dimensionality reduction made the two subject-space geometries progressively more concordant, while classification performance and decision-level agreement declined. These results identify data geometry as a hidden degree of freedom in explainability: similar performance does not guarantee invariant decisions or explanations.

Drug discovery is a complex and resource-intensive process, making early prediction of approval outcomes critical for optimizing research investments. While classical machine learning and deep learning methods have shown promise in drug approval prediction, their limited interpretability constraints their impact. Here, we present DrugReasoner, a reasoning-based large language model (LLM) built on the LLaMA architecture and fine-tuned with group relative policy optimization (GRPO) to predict the likelihood of small-molecule approval. DrugReasoner integrates molecular descriptors with comparative reasoning against structurally similar approved and unapproved compounds, generating predictions alongside step-by-step rationales and confidence scores. DrugReasoner achieved robust performance with an AUC of 0.732 and an F1 score of 0.729 on the validation set and 0.725 and 0.718 on the test set, respectively. These results outperformed conventional baselines, including logistic regression, support vector machine, and k-nearest neighbors and had competitive performance relative to XGBoost. On an external independent dataset, DrugReasoner outperformed both baseline and the recently developed ChemAP model, achieving an AUC of 0.728 and an F1-score of 0.774, while maintaining high precision and balanced sensitivity, demonstrating robustness in real-world scenarios. These findings demonstrate that DrugReasoner not only delivers competitive predictive accuracy but also enhances transparency through its reasoning outputs, thereby addressing a key bottleneck in AI-assisted drug discovery. This study highlights the potential of reasoning-augmented LLMs as interpretable and effective tools for pharmaceutical decision-making.

Alongside neuroimaging such as MRI scans and PET, Alzheimer's disease (AD) datasets contain valuable tabular data including AD biomarkers and clinical assessments. Existing computer vision approaches struggle to utilize this additional information. To address these needs, we propose a generalizable framework for multimodal contrastive learning of image data and tabular data, a novel tabular attention module for amplifying and ranking salient features in tables, and the application of these techniques onto Alzheimer's disease prediction. Experimental evaulations demonstrate the strength of our framework by detecting Alzheimer's disease (AD) from over 882 MR image slices from the ADNI database. We take advantage of the high interpretability of tabular data and our novel tabular attention approach and through attribution of the attention scores for each row of the table, we note and rank the most predominant features. Results show that the model is capable of an accuracy of over 83.8%, almost a 10% increase from previous state of the art.

In the hospitality industry, understanding the factors that drive customer review ratings is critical for improving guest satisfaction and business performance. This work proposes ReviewGraph for Review Rating Prediction (RRP), a novel framework that transforms textual customer reviews into knowledge graphs by extracting (subject, predicate, object) triples and associating sentiment scores. Using graph embeddings (Node2Vec) and sentiment features, the framework predicts review rating scores through machine learning classifiers. We compare ReviewGraph performance with traditional NLP baselines (such as Bag of Words, TF-IDF, and Word2Vec) and large language models (LLMs), evaluating them in the HotelRec dataset. In comparison to the state of the art literature, our proposed model performs similar to their best performing model but with lower computational cost (without ensemble). While ReviewGraph achieves comparable predictive performance to LLMs and outperforms baselines on agreement-based metrics such as Cohen's Kappa, it offers additional advantages in interpretability, visual exploration, and potential integration into Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems. This work highlights the potential of graph-based representations for enhancing review analytics and lays the groundwork for future research integrating advanced graph neural networks and fine-tuned LLM-based extraction methods. We will share ReviewGraph output and platform open-sourced on our GitHub page https://github.com/aaronlifenghan/ReviewGraph

Machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) models have demonstrated remarkable potential in delivering accurate forecasts at significantly reduced computational cost compared to traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. However, challenges remain in ensuring the physical consistency of MLWP outputs, particularly in deterministic settings. This study presents FastNet, a graph neural network (GNN)-based global prediction model, and investigates the impact of alternative loss function designs on improving the physical realism of its forecasts. We explore three key modifications to the standard mean squared error (MSE) loss: (1) a modified spherical harmonic (MSH) loss that penalises spectral amplitude errors to reduce blurring and enhance small-scale structure retention; (2) inclusion of horizontal gradient terms in the loss to suppress non-physical artefacts; and (3) an alternative wind representation that decouples speed and direction to better capture extreme wind events. Results show that while the MSH and gradient-based losses alone may slightly degrade RMSE scores, when trained in combination the model exhibits very similar MSE performance to an MSE-trained model while at the same time significantly improving spectral fidelity and physical consistency. The alternative wind representation further improves wind speed accuracy and reduces directional bias. Collectively, these findings highlight the importance of loss function design as a mechanism for embedding domain knowledge into MLWP models and advancing their operational readiness.

Sequential recommendation models often struggle to capture latent periodic patterns in user interests, primarily due to the noise inherent in time-domain behavioral data. While frequency-domain analysis offers a global perspective to address this, existing approaches typically treat user sequences in isolation, overlooking the crucial context of the target item. In this work, we present a novel empirical observation: user attention scores exhibit distinct spectral entropy distributions when conditioned on positive versus negative target items. Specifically, true user interests manifest as highly concentrated spectral patterns with lower entropy in the frequency domain, whereas irrelevant behaviors appear as high-entropy noise. Leveraging this insight, we propose the Frequency-Enhanced Deep Interest Network (FEDIN). FEDIN introduces a frequency-domain branch that utilizes a target-aware spectrum filtering mechanism to isolate these periodic interest signals. Extensive experiments on three public datasets demonstrate that FEDIN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art sequential recommendation baselines, demonstrating superior robustness against noise. We have released our code at: https://github.com/otokoneko/FEDIN.

The integration of knowledge graphs with deep learning is thriving in improving the performance of various natural language processing (NLP) tasks. In this paper, we focus on knowledge-infused link prediction and question answering using language models, T5, and BLOOM across three domains: Aviation, Movie, and Web. In this context, we infuse knowledge in large and small language models and study their performance, and find the performance to be similar. For the link prediction task on the Aviation Knowledge Graph, we obtain a 0.2 hits@1 score using T5-small, T5-base, T5-large, and BLOOM. Using template-based scripts, we create a set of 1 million synthetic factoid QA pairs in the aviation domain from National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) reports. On our curated QA pairs, the three models of T5 achieve a 0.7 hits@1 score. We validate out findings with the paired student t-test and Cohen's kappa scores. For link prediction on Aviation Knowledge Graph using T5-small and T5-large, we obtain a Cohen's kappa score of 0.76, showing substantial agreement between the models. Thus, we infer that small language models perform similar to large language models with the infusion of knowledge.

In this work, we present a novel conformal prediction method for time-series, which we call Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI). Specifically, KOWCPI adapts the classic Reweighted Nadaraya-Watson (RNW) estimator for quantile regression on dependent data and learns optimal data-adaptive weights. Theoretically, we tackle the challenge of establishing a conditional coverage guarantee for non-exchangeable data under strong mixing conditions on the non-conformity scores. We demonstrate the superior performance of KOWCPI on real and synthetic time-series data against state-of-the-art methods, where KOWCPI achieves narrower confidence intervals without losing coverage.

Matbench Discovery simulates the deployment of machine learning (ML) energy models in a high-throughput search for stable inorganic crystals. We address the disconnect between (i) thermodynamic stability and formation energy and (ii) in-domain vs out-of-distribution performance. Alongside this paper, we publish a Python package to aid with future model submissions and a growing online leaderboard with further insights into trade-offs between various performance metrics. To answer the question which ML methodology performs best at materials discovery, our initial release explores a variety of models including random forests, graph neural networks (GNN), one-shot predictors, iterative Bayesian optimizers and universal interatomic potentials (UIP). Ranked best-to-worst by their test set F1 score on thermodynamic stability prediction, we find CHGNet > M3GNet > MACE > ALIGNN > MEGNet > CGCNN > CGCNN+P > Wrenformer > BOWSR > Voronoi tessellation fingerprints with random forest. The top 3 models are UIPs, the winning methodology for ML-guided materials discovery, achieving F1 scores of ~0.6 for crystal stability classification and discovery acceleration factors (DAF) of up to 5x on the first 10k most stable predictions compared to dummy selection from our test set. We also highlight a sharp disconnect between commonly used global regression metrics and more task-relevant classification metrics. Accurate regressors are susceptible to unexpectedly high false-positive rates if those accurate predictions lie close to the decision boundary at 0 eV/atom above the convex hull where most materials are. Our results highlight the need to focus on classification metrics that actually correlate with improved stability hit rate.

Most knowledge graph completion (KGC) methods learn latent representations of entities and relations of a given graph by mapping them into a vector space. Although the majority of these methods focus on static knowledge graphs, a large number of publicly available KGs contain temporal information stating the time instant/period over which a certain fact has been true. Such graphs are often known as temporal knowledge graphs. Furthermore, knowledge graphs may also contain textual descriptions of entities and relations. Both temporal information and textual descriptions are not taken into account during representation learning by static KGC methods, and only structural information of the graph is leveraged. Recently, some studies have used temporal information to improve link prediction, yet they do not exploit textual descriptions and do not support inductive inference (prediction on entities that have not been seen in training). We propose a novel framework called TEMT that exploits the power of pre-trained language models (PLMs) for text-enhanced temporal knowledge graph completion. The knowledge stored in the parameters of a PLM allows TEMT to produce rich semantic representations of facts and to generalize on previously unseen entities. TEMT leverages textual and temporal information available in a KG, treats them separately, and fuses them to get plausibility scores of facts. Unlike previous approaches, TEMT effectively captures dependencies across different time points and enables predictions on unseen entities. To assess the performance of TEMT, we carried out several experiments including time interval prediction, both in transductive and inductive settings, and triple classification. The experimental results show that TEMT is competitive with the state-of-the-art.

With the increased applications of automatic speech recognition (ASR) in recent years, it is essential to automatically insert punctuation marks and remove disfluencies in transcripts, to improve the readability of the transcripts as well as the performance of subsequent applications, such as machine translation, dialogue systems, and so forth. In this paper, we propose a Controllable Time-delay Transformer (CT-Transformer) model that jointly completes the punctuation prediction and disfluency detection tasks in real time. The CT-Transformer model facilitates freezing partial outputs with controllable time delay to fulfill the real-time constraints in partial decoding required by subsequent applications. We further propose a fast decoding strategy to minimize latency while maintaining competitive performance. Experimental results on the IWSLT2011 benchmark dataset and an in-house Chinese annotated dataset demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms the previous state-of-the-art models on F-scores and achieves a competitive inference speed.

Background: This study aimed to evaluate and compare the performance of classical machine learning models (CMLs) and large language models (LLMs) in predicting mortality associated with COVID-19 by utilizing a high-dimensional tabular dataset. Materials and Methods: We analyzed data from 9,134 COVID-19 patients collected across four hospitals. Seven CML models, including XGBoost and random forest (RF), were trained and evaluated. The structured data was converted into text for zero-shot classification by eight LLMs, including GPT-4 and Mistral-7b. Additionally, Mistral-7b was fine-tuned using the QLoRA approach to enhance its predictive capabilities. Results: Among the CML models, XGBoost and RF achieved the highest accuracy, with F1 scores of 0.87 for internal validation and 0.83 for external validation. In the LLM category, GPT-4 was the top performer with an F1 score of 0.43. Fine-tuning Mistral-7b significantly improved its recall from 1% to 79%, resulting in an F1 score of 0.74, which was stable during external validation. Conclusion: While LLMs show moderate performance in zero-shot classification, fine-tuning can significantly enhance their effectiveness, potentially aligning them closer to CML models. However, CMLs still outperform LLMs in high-dimensional tabular data tasks.

Understanding drivers' decision-making is crucial for road safety. Although predicting the ego-vehicle's path is valuable for driver-assistance systems, existing methods mainly focus on external factors like other vehicles' motions, often neglecting the driver's attention and intent. To address this gap, we infer the ego-trajectory by integrating the driver's gaze and the surrounding scene. We introduce RouteFormer, a novel multimodal ego-trajectory prediction network combining GPS data, environmental context, and the driver's field-of-view, comprising first-person video and gaze fixations. We also present the Path Complexity Index (PCI), a new metric for trajectory complexity that enables a more nuanced evaluation of challenging scenarios. To tackle data scarcity and enhance diversity, we introduce GEM, a comprehensive dataset of urban driving scenarios enriched with synchronized driver field-of-view and gaze data. Extensive evaluations on GEM and DR(eye)VE demonstrate that RouteFormer significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving notable improvements in prediction accuracy across diverse conditions. Ablation studies reveal that incorporating driver field-of-view data yields significantly better average displacement error, especially in challenging scenarios with high PCI scores, underscoring the importance of modeling driver attention. All data and code are available at https://meakbiyik.github.io/routeformer.

This paper approaches the problem of separating the notes from a quantized symbolic music piece (e.g., a MIDI file) into multiple voices and staves. This is a fundamental part of the larger task of music score engraving (or score typesetting), which aims to produce readable musical scores for human performers. We focus on piano music and support homophonic voices, i.e., voices that can contain chords, and cross-staff voices, which are notably difficult tasks that have often been overlooked in previous research. We propose an end-to-end system based on graph neural networks that clusters notes that belong to the same chord and connects them with edges if they are part of a voice. Our results show clear and consistent improvements over a previous approach on two datasets of different styles. To aid the qualitative analysis of our results, we support the export in symbolic music formats and provide a direct visualization of our outputs graph over the musical score. All code and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/CPJKU/piano_svsep

Facial beauty prediction (FBP) is a significant visual recognition problem to make assessment of facial attractiveness that is consistent to human perception. To tackle this problem, various data-driven models, especially state-of-the-art deep learning techniques, were introduced, and benchmark dataset become one of the essential elements to achieve FBP. Previous works have formulated the recognition of facial beauty as a specific supervised learning problem of classification, regression or ranking, which indicates that FBP is intrinsically a computation problem with multiple paradigms. However, most of FBP benchmark datasets were built under specific computation constrains, which limits the performance and flexibility of the computational model trained on the dataset. In this paper, we argue that FBP is a multi-paradigm computation problem, and propose a new diverse benchmark dataset, called SCUT-FBP5500, to achieve multi-paradigm facial beauty prediction. The SCUT-FBP5500 dataset has totally 5500 frontal faces with diverse properties (male/female, Asian/Caucasian, ages) and diverse labels (face landmarks, beauty scores within [1,~5], beauty score distribution), which allows different computational models with different FBP paradigms, such as appearance-based/shape-based facial beauty classification/regression model for male/female of Asian/Caucasian. We evaluated the SCUT-FBP5500 dataset for FBP using different combinations of feature and predictor, and various deep learning methods. The results indicates the improvement of FBP and the potential applications based on the SCUT-FBP5500.

Managing natural dialogue timing is a significant challenge for voice-based chatbots. Most current systems usually rely on simple silence detection, which often fails because human speech patterns involve irregular pauses. This causes bots to interrupt users, breaking the conversational flow. This problem is even more severe for languages like Turkish, which lack high-quality datasets for turn-taking prediction. This paper introduces Syn-TurnTurk, a synthetic Turkish dialogue dataset generated using various Qwen Large Language Models (LLMs) to mirror real-life verbal exchanges, including overlaps and strategic silences. We evaluated the dataset using several traditional and deep learning architectures. The results show that advanced models, particularly BI-LSTM and Ensemble (LR+RF) methods, achieve high accuracy (0.839) and AUC scores (0.910). These findings demonstrate that our synthetic dataset can have a positive affect for models understand linguistic cues, allowing for more natural human-machine interaction in Turkish.

Music popularity prediction has attracted growing research interest, with relevance to artists, platforms, and recommendation systems. However, the explosive rise of AI-generated music platforms has created an entirely new and largely unexplored landscape, where a surge of songs is produced and consumed daily without the traditional markers of artist reputation or label backing. Key, yet unexplored in this pursuit is aesthetic quality. We propose APEX, the first large-scale multi-task learning framework for AI-generated music, trained on over 211k songs (10k hours of audio) from Suno and Udio, that jointly predicts engagement-based popularity signals - streams and likes scores - alongside five perceptual aesthetic quality dimensions from frozen audio embeddings extracted from MERT, a self-supervised music understanding model. Aesthetic quality and popularity capture complementary aspects of music that together prove valuable: in an out-of-distribution evaluation on the Music Arena dataset, comprising pairwise human preference battles across eleven generative music systems unseen during training, including aesthetic features consistently improves preference prediction, demonstrating strong generalisation of the learned representations across generative architectures.

Open-vocabulary detection accepts any class list at inference, and promptable segmentation returns regions without class names: the taxonomy has left the model and become an input. Relation prediction has not. Scene-graph models are still trained and evaluated on the 50 or 56 predicates of one annotation style, their relation head conditioned on object labels and so tied to one detector. Three obstacles explain this, none primarily modelling: no relation corpus is both free-text and verified, a label-conditioned architecture cannot accept a vocabulary it was not trained on, and the standard metric rewards agreement with the training corpus, so a larger vocabulary scores as a regression. We present RelateAnything, a 53M-parameter model taking an image and regions from any source and returning scored relations over a predicate vocabulary supplied at inference as strings. Object labels are never an input, so the region source can change without retraining, and the vocabulary is a bank of text embeddings, not a learned classifier. It runs at 20 ms/frame. Training over 19,103 predicates requires positive-unlabeled supervision and a text encoder that separates antonyms, which contrastive encoders embed at cosine 0.95. To supply the supervision we build RA-4M, 474k images and 4.3M relations over 10,102 free-text predicates, generated against numbered box markers and geometrically verified. To measure it we build OV-SGG-Bench, six axes scored across datasets that the priors standard recall rewards cannot satisfy. On three cross-dataset benchmarks and a fourth zero-shot, RelateAnything has 2.3-3.5x the mean recall of the strongest open-vocabulary method of comparable scale, margins that survive a real detector, and leads a 3B-VLM scene-graph model on both metrics at under 2% of its parameters. In-domain measurement overstates transfer gains ~5x. Model, corpus and benchmark are public.

Accurate prediction of pedestrians' future motions is critical for intelligent driving systems. Developing models for this task requires rich datasets containing diverse sets of samples. However, the existing naturalistic trajectory prediction datasets are generally imbalanced in favor of simpler samples and lack challenging scenarios. Such a long-tail effect causes prediction models to underperform on the tail portion of the data distribution containing safety-critical scenarios. Previous methods tackle the long-tail problem using methods such as contrastive learning and class-conditioned hypernetworks. These approaches, however, are not modular and cannot be applied to many machine learning architectures. In this work, we propose a modular model-agnostic framework for trajectory prediction that leverages a specialized mixture of experts. In our approach, each expert is trained with a specialized skill with respect to a particular part of the data. To produce predictions, we utilise a router network that selects the best expert by generating relative confidence scores. We conduct experimentation on common pedestrian trajectory prediction datasets and show that besides achieving state-of-the-art performance, our method significantly performs better on long-tail scenarios. We further conduct ablation studies to highlight the contribution of different proposed components.

Humans interpret multimodal observations of the world and forecast how it will evolve. Recent multimodal generative systems have demonstrated similar capabilities: they can integrate multimodal context and synthesize visual outputs that depict changes in the world. To characterize this emerging trajectory, we organize model capabilities into a four-level hierarchy and discover that higher-level tasks remain relatively underexplored despite model progress. To bridge this gap, we explore model performance on multi-step world state prediction, a high-level task that requires models to forecast successive future world states from multimodal observations and diverse references. Such a task requires models to possess entangled understanding and generation capabilities, as well as extensive world knowledge to translate human action sequences, physical transformations, and abstract visual reasoning into coherent visual outputs. We introduce WorldCast, a benchmark comprising 320 manually designed cases across eight categories, and evaluate 12 representative models. The conducted experiments yield three key insights: (a) advances in frontier models are rapidly pushing the boundaries of intelligent world modeling, with the GPT-Image-2.5 System scoring 72.8 and demonstrating early-stage visual state prediction capabilities on real-world tasks; (b) WorldCast reveals substantial gaps between models: even Nano Banana Pro reaches only 42.8 and the best open-source model scores 20.1, with deficits in handling complex context, entangled references, and reasoning-heavy tasks; (c) strong generative models effectively draw on the capabilities of their underlying language models. These findings highlight the need for multimodal generative models that are capable of dynamic planning and reasoning while also being deeply unified to faithfully simulate real-world states.

We present a data-driven, end-to-end approach to transaction-based dialog systems that performs at near-human levels in terms of verbal response quality and factual grounding accuracy. We show that two essential components of the system produce these results: a sufficiently large and diverse, in-domain labeled dataset, and a neural network-based, pre-trained model that generates both verbal responses and API call predictions. In terms of data, we introduce TicketTalk, a movie ticketing dialog dataset with 23,789 annotated conversations. The movie ticketing conversations range from completely open-ended and unrestricted to more structured, both in terms of their knowledge base, discourse features, and number of turns. In qualitative human evaluations, model-generated responses trained on just 10,000 TicketTalk dialogs were rated to "make sense" 86.5 percent of the time, almost the same as human responses in the same contexts. Our simple, API-focused annotation schema results in a much easier labeling task making it faster and more cost effective. It is also the key component for being able to predict API calls accurately. We handle factual grounding by incorporating API calls in the training data, allowing our model to learn which actions to take and when. Trained on the same 10,000-dialog set, the model's API call predictions were rated to be correct 93.9 percent of the time in our evaluations, surpassing the ratings for the corresponding human labels. We show how API prediction and response generation scores improve as the dataset size incrementally increases from 5000 to 21,000 dialogs. Our analysis also clearly illustrates the benefits of pre-training. We are publicly releasing the TicketTalk dataset with this paper to facilitate future work on transaction-based dialogs.

We present a method for detecting objects in images using a single deep neural network. Our approach, named SSD, discretizes the output space of bounding boxes into a set of default boxes over different aspect ratios and scales per feature map location. At prediction time, the network generates scores for the presence of each object category in each default box and produces adjustments to the box to better match the object shape. Additionally, the network combines predictions from multiple feature maps with different resolutions to naturally handle objects of various sizes. Our SSD model is simple relative to methods that require object proposals because it completely eliminates proposal generation and subsequent pixel or feature resampling stage and encapsulates all computation in a single network. This makes SSD easy to train and straightforward to integrate into systems that require a detection component. Experimental results on the PASCAL VOC, MS COCO, and ILSVRC datasets confirm that SSD has comparable accuracy to methods that utilize an additional object proposal step and is much faster, while providing a unified framework for both training and inference. Compared to other single stage methods, SSD has much better accuracy, even with a smaller input image size. For 300times 300 input, SSD achieves 72.1% mAP on VOC2007 test at 58 FPS on a Nvidia Titan X and for 500times 500 input, SSD achieves 75.1% mAP, outperforming a comparable state of the art Faster R-CNN model. Code is available at https://github.com/weiliu89/caffe/tree/ssd .

Can a language model read the quality of its ongoing computation, and can an external intervention turn that readout into better outcomes? We test both questions in a frozen 2.6B looped transformer, Ouro-RLTT. On GSM8K, a strict pre-answer probe excludes the answer region and gold value yet predicts success: hidden states plus length/log-probability features reach AUROC 0.797 versus 0.731 for those surface features alone (increment +0.066; task-clustered 95% CI [+0.021,+0.112]; 170 tasks). On Horizon Logic, a prospectively extended task-disjoint study gives an increment of +0.111 (CI [+0.056,+0.169]), independently replicated on the new cohort (+0.095) and robust to an adversarial malformed-sibling shortcut. Recurrence also moves candidate-quality readability to progressively earlier physical depth; the trend replicates across the Ouro family and qualitatively in out-of-family Huginn, although their transfer geometry differs. The readout converts into validated decision-level gains. Hidden-state-based scores improve risk-coverage over shortcut-only scores in four sealed selective-prediction arms, and terminal selection beats matched random even when every candidate is well formed (27/32 correct selections versus 64.8% expected; p = 0.0086). Generative control does not convert: directional steering is negative, a branch screen is bounded, and exact-compute loop allocation and minimal LoRA direction-binding detect no gain. These tests run through bit-exact branch/carry/prune machinery over Ouro's 192-slot recurrent cache, including a suffix-recompute splice saving up to 88% of per-branch layer passes. We call this decision-usable but not generatively controllable property operational proto-introspection. All load-bearing values use source-item-disjoint splits and antisymmetrized pairwise evaluation.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems remain susceptible to hallucinations despite grounding in retrieved evidence. While current detection methods leverage embedding similarity and natural language inference (NLI), their reliability in safety-critical settings remains unproven. We apply conformal prediction to RAG hallucination detection, transforming heuristic scores into decision sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees (1-alpha). Using calibration sets of n=600, we demonstrate a fundamental dichotomy: on synthetic hallucinations (Natural Questions), embedding methods achieve 95% coverage with 0% False Positive Rate (FPR). However, on real hallucinations from RLHF-aligned models (HaluEval), the same methods fail catastrophically, yielding 100% FPR at target coverage. We analyze this failure through the lens of distributional tails, showing that while NLI models achieve acceptable AUC (0.81), the "hardest" hallucinations are semantically indistinguishable from faithful responses, forcing conformal thresholds to reject nearly all valid outputs. Crucially, GPT-4 as a judge achieves 7% FPR (95% CI:[3.4%, 13.7%]) on the same data, proving the task is solvable via reasoning but opaque to surface-level semantics--a phenomenon we term the "Semantic Illusion."

Existing calibration methods for Large Language Models (LLMs) often overlook a critical dimension of trustworthiness: a model's behavioral robustness to irrelevant or misleading information. In this paper, we argue that a model's true confidence should reflect its stability under cognitive pressure. We introduce CaliDist, a novel post-hoc calibration approach that directly measures and penalizes a model's susceptibility to distraction. CaliDist quantifies how an LLM's predictions and uncertainty change when its input prompt is perturbed with semantic distractors. This stability (or lack thereof) signal is then used to adaptively scale the model's initial confidence score. Our extensive experiments on seven Natural Language Understanding classification benchmarks using six distinct LLMs show that CaliDist consistently achieves lower Expected Calibration Error (ECE) and Brier Score compared with strong baselines. Remarkably, our method reduces the ECE from 23% to 7% on average--a relative improvement of 70%--demonstrating that behavioral stability is a powerful signal for calibration. We make our code and datasets available at github.com/anas-jawad/CaliDist.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

In this paper, we explain the inference logic of large language models (LLMs) as a set of symbolic concepts. Many recent studies have discovered that traditional DNNs usually encode sparse symbolic concepts. However, because an LLM has much more parameters than traditional DNNs, whether the LLM also encodes sparse symbolic concepts is still an open problem. Therefore, in this paper, we propose to disentangle the inference score of LLMs for dialogue tasks into a small number of symbolic concepts. We verify that we can use those sparse concepts to well estimate all inference scores of the LLM on all arbitrarily masking states of the input sentence. We also evaluate the transferability of concepts encoded by an LLM and verify that symbolic concepts usually exhibit high transferability across similar input sentences. More crucially, those symbolic concepts can be used to explain the exact reasons accountable for the LLM's prediction errors.

We extend our previous work on Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for multi-label text classification and present a novel approach for addressing the computational inefficiency of the Label Powerset (LP) ICP, arrising when dealing with a high number of unique labels. We present experimental results using the original and the proposed efficient LP-ICP on two English and one Czech language data-sets. Specifically, we apply the LP-ICP on three deep Artificial Neural Network (ANN) classifiers of two types: one based on contextualised (bert) and two on non-contextualised (word2vec) word-embeddings. In the LP-ICP setting we assign nonconformity scores to label-sets from which the corresponding p-values and prediction-sets are determined. Our approach deals with the increased computational burden of LP by eliminating from consideration a significant number of label-sets that will surely have p-values below the specified significance level. This reduces dramatically the computational complexity of the approach while fully respecting the standard CP guarantees. Our experimental results show that the contextualised-based classifier surpasses the non-contextualised-based ones and obtains state-of-the-art performance for all data-sets examined. The good performance of the underlying classifiers is carried on to their ICP counterparts without any significant accuracy loss, but with the added benefits of ICP, i.e. the confidence information encapsulated in the prediction sets. We experimentally demonstrate that the resulting prediction sets can be tight enough to be practically useful even though the set of all possible label-sets contains more than 1e+16 combinations. Additionally, the empirical error rates of the obtained prediction-sets confirm that our outputs are well-calibrated.

We developed an explainable artificial intelligence (AI) early warning score (xAI-EWS) system for early detection of acute critical illness. While maintaining a high predictive performance, our system explains to the clinician on which relevant electronic health records (EHRs) data the prediction is grounded. Acute critical illness is often preceded by deterioration of routinely measured clinical parameters, e.g., blood pressure and heart rate. Early clinical prediction is typically based on manually calculated screening metrics that simply weigh these parameters, such as Early Warning Scores (EWS). The predictive performance of EWSs yields a tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity that can lead to negative outcomes for the patient. Previous work on EHR-trained AI systems offers promising results with high levels of predictive performance in relation to the early, real-time prediction of acute critical illness. However, without insight into the complex decisions by such system, clinical translation is hindered. In this letter, we present our xAI-EWS system, which potentiates clinical translation by accompanying a prediction with information on the EHR data explaining it.

Foundation models are increasingly used in scientific research, but evaluating AI-generated scientific work remains challenging. While expert reviews are costly, large language models (LLMs) as proxy reviewers have proven to be unreliable. To address this, we investigate two automatic evaluation metrics, specifically citation count prediction and review score prediction. We parse all papers of OpenReview and augment each submission with its citation count, reference, and research hypothesis. Our findings reveal that citation count prediction is more viable than review score prediction, and predicting scores is more difficult purely from the research hypothesis than from the full paper. Furthermore, we show that a simple prediction model based solely on title and abstract outperforms LLM-based reviewers, though it still falls short of human-level consistency.

We introduce pluralistic salient object detection (PSOD), a novel task aimed at generating multiple plausible salient segmentation results for a given input image. Unlike conventional SOD methods that produce a single segmentation mask for salient objects, this new setting recognizes the inherent complexity of real-world images, comprising multiple objects, and the ambiguity in defining salient objects due to different user intentions. To study this task, we present two new SOD datasets "DUTS-MM" and "DUS-MQ", along with newly designed evaluation metrics. DUTS-MM builds upon the DUTS dataset but enriches the ground-truth mask annotations from three aspects which 1) improves the mask quality especially for boundary and fine-grained structures; 2) alleviates the annotation inconsistency issue; and 3) provides multiple ground-truth masks for images with saliency ambiguity. DUTS-MQ consists of approximately 100K image-mask pairs with human-annotated preference scores, enabling the learning of real human preferences in measuring mask quality. Building upon these two datasets, we propose a simple yet effective pluralistic SOD baseline based on a Mixture-of-Experts (MOE) design. Equipped with two prediction heads, it simultaneously predicts multiple masks using different query prompts and predicts human preference scores for each mask candidate. Extensive experiments and analyses underscore the significance of our proposed datasets and affirm the effectiveness of our PSOD framework.

In information retrieval, training reranking models mainly focuses on two types of objectives: metric learning (e.g. contrastive loss to increase the predicted scores on relevant query-document pairs) and classification (binary label prediction of relevance vs. irrelevance). For BERT-style encoders, various studies have shown that contrastive learning (CL) can be more effective than discriminative (classification) learning. However, for large language models (LLMs), classification via supervised fine-tuning (SFT), which predicts ''yes'' (resp. ''no'') token for relevant (resp. irrelevant) pairs, appears more promising as it aligns well with the generative nature of LLMs. This divergence raises a central question: which objective is intrinsically better suited to LLM-based reranking, and what mechanism underlies the difference? In this work, we conduct a comprehensive comparison and analysis between CL and SFT for reranking, taking the universal multimodal retrieval (UMR) as the experimental playground. We first decompose the objectives into two components: weight, which controls the magnitude of those updates, and direction, which guides the model updates, then present a unified framework for understanding their interactions. Through probing experiments, we find that SFT provides a substantially stronger weighting scheme than CL, whereas the preferred scoring direction shows no clear winner. Taken together, these results point to a consistent advantage of SFT over CL for LLM reranking. To further validate our findings, we conduct large-scale training with SFT and present new state-of-the-art rerankers on the MRB benchmark. We also provide ablations on SFT settings and expect our findings to benefit future research and applications in this area.

Large Reasoning Models have demonstrated remarkable performance with the advancement of test-time scaling techniques, which enhances prediction accuracy by generating multiple candidate responses and selecting the most reliable answer. While prior work has analyzed that internal model signals like confidence scores can partly indicate response correctness and exhibit a distributional correlation with accuracy, such distributional information has not been fully utilized to guide answer selection. Motivated by this, we propose DistriVoting, which incorporates distributional priors as another signal alongside confidence during voting. Specifically, our method (1) first decomposes the mixed confidence distribution into positive and negative components using Gaussian Mixture Models, (2) then applies a reject filter based on positive/negative samples from them to mitigate overlap between the two distributions. Besides, to further alleviate the overlap from the perspective of distribution itself, we propose SelfStepConf, which uses step-level confidence to dynamically adjust inference process, increasing the separation between the two distributions to improve the reliability of confidences in voting. Experiments across 16 models and 5 benchmarks demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches.

Accurate prediction of biochemical recurrence (BCR) after radical prostatectomy is critical for guiding adjuvant treatment and surveillance decisions in prostate cancer. However, existing clinicopathological risk models reduce complex morphology to relatively coarse descriptors, leaving substantial prognostic information embedded in routine histopathology underexplored. We present a deep learning-based biomarker that predicts continuous, patient-specific risk of BCR directly from H&E-stained whole-slide prostatectomy specimens. Trained end-to-end on time-to-event outcomes and evaluated across four independent international cohorts, our model demonstrates robust generalization across institutions and patient populations. When integrated with the CAPRA-S clinical risk score, the deep learning risk score consistently improved discrimination for BCR, increasing concordance indices from 0.725-0.772 to 0.749-0.788 across cohorts. To support clinical interpretability, outcome-grounded analyses revealed subtle histomorphological patterns associated with recurrence risk that are not captured by conventional clinicopathological risk scores. This multicohort study demonstrates that deep learning applied to routine prostate histopathology can deliver reproducible and clinically generalizable biomarkers that augment postoperative risk stratification, with potential to support personalized management of prostate cancer in real-world clinical settings.

Probes are the workhorse of interpretability. If a model's hidden states predict a variable, the model is said to represent it. But a probe score has no fixed meaning. An R^2 of 0.6 may only reflect what the input already gives away, and the same score can mean different things on different data. We propose reading every probe score against two reference points: a floor, what a declared set of simple inputs already predicts, and a ceiling, what the full input can predict. The gap between them, the headroom, is the range in which a probe can show that a model computes something beyond the simple inputs. We prove that headroom vanishes in two ways: the target stops depending on a hidden variable the model must infer, or the input stops revealing it. We test this on transformers trained for in-context meta-analysis, which must infer the hidden heterogeneity between studies to weight them correctly, and where both reference points are known. Under distribution shift, probe scores fall and prediction error rises 12--15times, yet the model recovers a similar share of the headroom, indicating that the data lost information, not the representation. We then analyze the real models. The single-cell foundation model scGPT encodes biological variability only partially. We also revisit four influential LLM probing studies, which claim that models represent geography, the state of an Othello board, truth, and the demographics of their users. Against a floor computed from the input text alone, some of these claims hold, while others are largely explained by the text itself.

Research into the prediction and analysis of perceived audio quality is hampered by the scarcity of openly available datasets of audio signals accompanied by corresponding subjective quality scores. To address this problem, we present the Open Dataset of Audio Quality (ODAQ), a new dataset containing the results of a MUSHRA listening test conducted with expert listeners from 2 international laboratories. ODAQ contains 240 audio samples and corresponding quality scores. Each audio sample is rated by 26 listeners. The audio samples are stereo audio signals sampled at 44.1 or 48 kHz and are processed by a total of 6 method classes, each operating at different quality levels. The processing method classes are designed to generate quality degradations possibly encountered during audio coding and source separation, and the quality levels for each method class span the entire quality range. The diversity of the processing methods, the large span of quality levels, the high sampling frequency, and the pool of international listeners make ODAQ particularly suited for further research into subjective and objective audio quality. The dataset is released with permissive licenses, and the software used to conduct the listening test is also made publicly available.

We propose WHISPER-GPT: A generative large language model (LLM) for speech and music that allows us to work with continuous audio representations and discrete tokens simultaneously as part of a single architecture. There has been a huge surge in generative audio, speech, and music models that utilize discrete audio tokens derived from neural compression algorithms, e.g. ENCODEC. However, one of the major drawbacks of this approach is handling the context length. It blows up for high-fidelity generative architecture if one has to account for all the audio contents at various frequencies for the next token prediction. By combining continuous audio representation like the spectrogram and discrete acoustic tokens, we retain the best of both worlds: Have all the information needed from the audio at a specific time instance in a single token, yet allow LLM to predict the future token to allow for sampling and other benefits discrete space provides. We show how our architecture improves the perplexity and negative log-likelihood scores for the next token prediction compared to a token-based LLM for speech and music.

Recent advances in LegalAI have primarily focused on individual case judgment analysis, often overlooking the critical appellate process within the judicial system. Appeals serve as a core mechanism for error correction and ensuring fair trials, making them highly significant both in practice and in research. To address this gap, we present the AppealCase dataset, consisting of 10,000 pairs of real-world, matched first-instance and second-instance documents across 91 categories of civil cases. The dataset also includes detailed annotations along five dimensions central to appellate review: judgment reversals, reversal reasons, cited legal provisions, claim-level decisions, and whether there is new information in the second instance. Based on these annotations, we propose five novel LegalAI tasks and conduct a comprehensive evaluation across 20 mainstream models. Experimental results reveal that all current models achieve less than 50% F1 scores on the judgment reversal prediction task, highlighting the complexity and challenge of the appeal scenario. We hope that the AppealCase dataset will spur further research in LegalAI for appellate case analysis and contribute to improving consistency in judicial decision-making.

Native multimodal pre-training trains a single model from scratch on text and multimodal data, enabling it to understand both language and visual inputs. However, how visual signals shape scaling behavior and support capabilities beyond visual understanding remains unclear. We investigate this question through controlled visual-content ablations across model sizes and training budgets. Specifically, we replace image embeddings with content-free padding token embeddings. Retaining visual content improves text prediction on image-text examples without materially changing the lowest text-only loss at a given compute budget, the optimal balance of model size and training data, or aggregate language scores. The relative multimodal loss benefit grows approximately as a power law of compute. To test benefits beyond understanding images, we evaluate spatial reasoning from text descriptions alone. Both conditions improve with model and data scaling. During training of the largest model, visual gains are most sustained in localization, navigation, and symbolic planning, which involve maintaining object configurations or composing spatial updates; gains in spatial relations, geometry, and physical commonsense are less consistent. These findings identify visual content as a scalable anchor for multimodal learning, with benefits that extend beyond visual inputs while preserving aggregate language performance.

The NeuroSAT neural network architecture was recently introduced for predicting properties of propositional formulae. When trained to predict the satisfiability of toy problems, it was shown to find solutions and unsatisfiable cores on its own. However, the authors saw "no obvious path" to using the architecture to improve the state-of-the-art. In this work, we train a simplified NeuroSAT architecture to directly predict the unsatisfiable cores of real problems. We modify several high-performance SAT solvers to periodically replace their variable activity scores with NeuroSAT's prediction of how likely the variables are to appear in an unsatisfiable core. The modified MiniSat solves 10% more problems on SAT-COMP 2018 within the standard 5,000 second timeout than the original does. The modified Glucose solves 11% more problems than the original, while the modified Z3 solves 6% more. The gains are even greater when the training is specialized for a specific distribution of problems; on a benchmark of hard problems from a scheduling domain, the modified Glucose solves 20% more problems than the original does within a one-hour timeout. Our results demonstrate that NeuroSAT can provide effective guidance to high-performance SAT solvers on real problems.