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Aug 12

WorldKernel: A World Model is the Coupling Kernel of Admissible Possible Worlds

A common assumption holds that enough observational and interventional data, given to a strong enough predictor, suffices. We report a failure mode that contradicts it. Across hundreds of structural causal models, on identified quantities a strong predictor and a Bayesian baseline both succeed, but on unidentified quantities (the couplings between counterfactual worlds) the predictor collapses to a point, on 28% of models to one no valid model can produce, while the truth is an admissible interval more data never narrows. The gap is structural: prediction cannot represent uncertainty over counterfactual couplings. We cast a world model as a single positive semidefinite coupling kernel K(T,T') over admissible worlds, whose diagonal is the ordinary posterior (what a predictor recovers) and whose off-diagonal is the cross-world coupling it cannot, which every counterfactual reads. The paper is the theory of that off-diagonal. It is real: two states with identical posteriors differ on a cross-world query, and the off-diagonal is the coupling that fixes counterfactuals. It can be bounded: positive semidefiniteness is partial-identifying information the marginals lack, and enforcing it bounds counterfactuals in polynomial time where the exact response-type program is intractable. Logical structure sharpens it: ontology axioms tighten the bound by up to a third, propagating to couplings they never touch. It can be acquired: targeted scars, constraints learned from encountered infeasibilities, close the gap several times faster than untargeted ones. Its full reconstruction is approximate counting of the admissible worlds, tractable below the Sly-Sun threshold and inapproximable above; we do not claim to beat the worst case.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 8

DermDepth: Toward Monocular Metric Scale 3D Reconstruction Models for Dermatology

Dermatological practice routinely involves measuring and tracking lesion size, morphology and texture, as critical components of wound or skin cancer screening, monitoring and diagnosis. To accomplish this task, practitioners often image the skin surface with commonly available off-the-shelf camera sensors. This has led to an overwhelming research focus on 2D methods while these objectives naturally benefit from 3D information. In this paper, we demonstrate that dense monocular 3D reconstructions, metric scale measurements and rich surface normal texture estimates are achievable for both dermoscopic and macroscopic cases without the need for additional hardware or multiple captures. We present DermDepth, the first single-view metric scale 3D model for the dermatological domain and D-Synth, the first synthetic dermoscopic dataset with pixel-perfect 3D information. Our experiments show training DermDepth on D-Synth corrects metric scale error from over 16x to under 1.1x for real dermoscopic data, while preserving geometric quality and increasing texture richness. Fine-tuning on a small amount of real clinical samples generalizes our method across three real-world benchmarks spanning the few mm to hundred cm range, diverse skin-tones, chronic wound cases and produces measurements broadly consistent with disease size reported in medical literature. All code, data and models are available at https://github.com/hectorcarrion/dermdepth.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 13

Saliency-Guided Deep Learning Network for Automatic Tumor Bed Volume Delineation in Post-operative Breast Irradiation

Efficient, reliable and reproducible target volume delineation is a key step in the effective planning of breast radiotherapy. However, post-operative breast target delineation is challenging as the contrast between the tumor bed volume (TBV) and normal breast tissue is relatively low in CT images. In this study, we propose to mimic the marker-guidance procedure in manual target delineation. We developed a saliency-based deep learning segmentation (SDL-Seg) algorithm for accurate TBV segmentation in post-operative breast irradiation. The SDL-Seg algorithm incorporates saliency information in the form of markers' location cues into a U-Net model. The design forces the model to encode the location-related features, which underscores regions with high saliency levels and suppresses low saliency regions. The saliency maps were generated by identifying markers on CT images. Markers' locations were then converted to probability maps using a distance-transformation coupled with a Gaussian filter. Subsequently, the CT images and the corresponding saliency maps formed a multi-channel input for the SDL-Seg network. Our in-house dataset was comprised of 145 prone CT images from 29 post-operative breast cancer patients, who received 5-fraction partial breast irradiation (PBI) regimen on GammaPod. The performance of the proposed method was compared against basic U-Net. Our model achieved mean (standard deviation) of 76.4 %, 6.76 mm, and 1.9 mm for DSC, HD95, and ASD respectively on the test set with computation time of below 11 seconds per one CT volume. SDL-Seg showed superior performance relative to basic U-Net for all the evaluation metrics while preserving low computation cost. The findings demonstrate that SDL-Seg is a promising approach for improving the efficiency and accuracy of the on-line treatment planning procedure of PBI, such as GammaPod based PBI.

  • 8 authors
·
May 6, 2021